South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol paid an unexpected visit to Ukraine on July 15, 2023, following a three-day official visit to Poland that we previously discussed. Yoon has consistently indicated throughout his diplomatic tours in recent months that this is a strong indication of his support for Ukraine and his condemnation of Russia. Additionally, it shows Seoul’s significant interest in Kiev’s post-war reconstruction initiatives, which will necessitate huge cash investments.
There was a hint of curiosity about the unexpected visit. On the eve of ROK President Yoon Suk-yeol’s departure for the NATO summit, some media outlets, particularly Japanese ones, reported that Yoon was likely to visit Ukraine. However, high-ranking ROK presidential administration representatives referred to these reports as “groundless rumors,” stressing that no trip to Ukraine was on the agenda. Specifically, Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo told reporters on July 6: “There are no preparations to visit Ukraine and meet with Vladimir Zelensky separately. We are not addressing these issues.”… According to a number of the author’s respondents, even a seemingly unexpected visit has been planned for some time (for example, Trump’s visit to Demilitarized zone (DMZ) and his meeting with Kim Jong-un in June 2019), and the trip to Ukraine should have been known about four days before departure.
Yoon’s visit, according to a presidential spokesman, was at Zelensky’s invitation and followed internal discussions on safety and security issues, as well as the need for the visit before the government realized the need for a detailed discussion of wartime cooperation and partnership in rebuilding Ukraine. “We interpreted that Ukraine’s polite invitation was based on its expectations about Korea’s role in the war in Ukraine, which is the most urgent international task,” the senior official said.
According to another account, Yoon was requested to visit Ukraine during the May visit of Ukrainian First Lady Olena Zelenska to Seoul, and the presidential administration was examining the issue amid NATO summit preparations. Yoon made his final decision already during his trip and allegedly sought help from Poland during a summit with President Duda of Poland, who offered a safe route by train. Even the majority of the President’s administrative personnel was kept in the dark about all of this, and it was only made public a few hours before his departure for Ukraine.
South Korea has provided additional non-lethal military aid to Ukraine ahead of the NATO summit: On July 9, a ROK Air Force KC-330 Cygnus transport plane landed in Poland, bringing protective suits and Korean-designed PRS-20K portable mine detectors capable of detecting not only metal but also non-metal mines. This is the fourth time military aid has been provided to Ukraine. Seoul gave Ukraine non-lethal help worth 4.85 billion won, or roughly $3.75 million, between March and June of last year. This aid included first aid supplies, medications, gas masks, tents, body armor, and food.
The ROK administration withheld information until July 11 and has been vague in describing the precise nature of the assistance. This led to rumors that the ROK sent Ukraine something more in addition to the mine detectors and safety gear packages, although it was unclear what it was. Especially considering that on July 8, the BBC reported that Kiev and its Western allies have recently increased pressure on Seoul to provide lethal military aid, and the author noted that in articles by the Yonhap News Agency, the phrase “war-torn” has been added to the word “Ukraine” in almost every English-language article.
Yoon was only in Ukraine for 11 hours whereas the travel from Poland on Friday night took 14 hours by air, land, and train and 13 hours to return.
During the visit, Yoon was first taken to Bucha, a massacre site, and Irpin, a civilian residential neighborhood that has been subjected to large-scale rocket attacks, before meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. If you remember Yoon’s statement to Reuters that it might be challenging to insist on humanitarian or financial support alone in the case of significant attacks on civilians, massacres, or grave violations of the laws of war, this preparation is pretty crucial.
The summit was hosted at the Mariinskyi Palace, the official residence of the President of Ukraine. It started with a welcome ceremony and an hour-long meeting with a select group of people before the number of attendees increased.
Yoon extended his sincere condolences to the Ukrainian people at a joint press conference held after the summit, saying he hoped his visit would inspire the country, which he compared to the story of North Korea’s invasion of South Korea some 70 years earlier. “If we strongly band together and fight, I am certain we will be able to defend our freedom and democracy.” “The Republic of Korea will be a partner in Ukraine’s construction of freedom, peace, and prosperity and will furthermore be a reliable partner contributing jointly with Ukraine to freedom, peace, and prosperity in the world.”
Zelensky expressed his gratitude for ongoing political assistance and encouraged South Korea to take part in the country’s restoration efforts, while Yoon pledged to increase support for Ukraine in the areas of security, humanitarian relief, and reconstruction.
Yoon consequently emphasized his unwavering conviction that Ukraine will be able to have its own “Miracle on the Dnieper River,” similar to Korea’s “Miracle on the Han River.” “Korea stands with the Ukrainian people. Freedom to Ukraine!” The ROK president certainly loves the word “freedom” and uses it often, but in this context it sounded almost like trolling.
The first ladies talked about methods to help Ukrainian refugees in the meantime. Kim Keon-hee recalled her visit to the Ukrainian Center in Vilnius, expressing her desire to exhibit the paintings created by Ukrainian refugee children in South Korea after being brought to tears by their sight. Zelenskaya felt that this would be an excellent opportunity to expose the world to the horrors of war and urged that conversations take place.
What are the practical results of the visit? Judging from the president’s press conference and additional explanations from Kim Tae-hyo on July 16, the bottom line is this:
- The parties agreed on a total of nine aid packages of three types: three each in the fields of security, humanitarian aid, and reconstruction of Ukraine, which were named the “Ukrainian Peace and Solidarity Initiative”. This includes an additional $150 million in humanitarian assistance, which is $50 million more than last year.
- Yoon has indicated support for Zelensky’s proposed Peace Formula (a 10-point plan to end the war) and has expressed willingness to act as a mediator to ensure that as many developing nations as possible attend the Official Peace Summit, which Kiev hopes to host as soon as feasible. South Korea will also engage with the World Bank to acquire further financial aid to help the Ukrainian government’s financial stability.
- Regarding military supplies, “assistance will be expanded in terms of military industrial supplies.” Specifics were not reported by either Yoon or Kim. It is certain that the ROK will increase supplies of mine detectors and other equipment for detecting and neutralizing mines to Kiev, but the ambiguity of the wording leads some to believe that it may be about supplies of other items that the Ukrainian side requires; for example, there has previously been information about interest in air defense systems, ATGMs, and so on.
- Seoul and Kyiv intend to expand collaboration in the medium and long term through cooperative defense projects, presumably referring to military-technical cooperation.
- South Korea might help build rehabilitation centers in Ukraine, as well as other social facilities including educational institutions, hospitals, and kindergartens, as well as other infrastructure like energy and transportation. It is proposed to employ funds from South Korea’s Economic Cooperation and Development Fund (EDCF) to conduct collaborative infrastructure projects totaling $100 million.
- South Korea will contribute to Ukraine’s food and energy security. Ukraine has also asked South Korean businesses to invest in the construction of battery and electric vehicle factories.
- The two countries will expand their cooperation in establishing online and offline education programs in Ukraine, rebuilding educational institutions destroyed during the war, and establishing the Yoon-Zelensky Scholarship Program to assist Ukrainian students in South Korea in finishing their studies and providing similar benefits to more students.
- With South Korean support, a system of psychological treatment and basic humanitarian assistance for children will be formed.
Many Russian commentators saw the visit as a sign of future trouble, and their logic is simple: Yoon said he had no plans to travel to Ukraine. So, it can only take place when South Korea decides to change something in its approach to supplying Kiev with arms and ammunition. The vague wording of the military aid messages reinforced their confidence.
However, as early as July 17, Defense ministry spokesperson Jeon Ha-kyu said that the ROK’s political position of refusing to supply Ukraine with lethal weapons remains unchanged. The aid package under the Ukrainian Peace and Solidarity Initiative does not include the supply of lethal weapons, and in general the details of the ROK military assistance to Ukraine will be clarified later in subsequent consultations.
In an interview with SBS Radio that same day, former ROK ambassador to Russia and first vice foreign minister Chang Ho-jin dispelled concerns about the further deterioration of relations between South Korea and Russia following Yoon Suk-yeol’s travel to Kiev. In an interview with SBS Radio, he said, ‘It is like a tacit understanding that the two countries will tolerate up to a certain point in managing their relations under such special circumstances.” “Considering this formula, the president’s visit will not worsen (ties with Russia) that much,” Chang Ho-jin added.
Having, so to say, a subconscious awareness of how much patience is really possible.
And if South Korea declared that it would give Ukraine deadly weaponry, Moscow would have “considered it seriously”. Furthermore, let’s not forget that Chang visited Moscow and engaged in some good discussions with Russian diplomats, so this visit was not at all “unexpected” for Moscow.
Former South Korean Ambassador to Russia Wi Sung-lac also believes the visit is unlikely to affect relations with Russia unless Korea offers military aid to Kiev.
Now, let’s talk about how other parties perceived the visit. Yoon “sent a strong message of solidarity with like-minded nations championing the values of freedom and democracy and underscoring his commitment with a surprise visit to Ukraine.” the Yonhap News Agency reported on July 16.
In a discussion with YTN reporters, ROK National Security Advisor Cho Tae-yong said that despite the trip’s risks and perils, he believes it was the right decision. He claimed that by doing this, the president of the ROK showed his unwavering support for Ukraine. Cho claims that the topic of Korean enterprises’ involvement in the projects for the restoration and reconstruction of Ukraine after hostilities was thoroughly explored during the discussions with Volodymyr Zelensky. It is intended to send an economic delegation to Kiev in the fall of this year that will comprise senior government officials and corporate structure leaders as part of this topic. Cho Tae-yong said, when questioned if all of this was taken from a “anti-Russian stance,” that “the fact of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine is undeniable, and all freedom-loving countries have no choice but to consolidate with Ukraine.”
The United States welcomes the South Korean president’s visit to Ukraine, according to US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller. “We always think it’s important when other foreign leaders can make the trip to Ukraine to speak firsthand with President Zelenskyy and other members of the Ukrainian government, to see the destruction that has been inflicted on that country by Russia,” he said.
The center-right Korea Times, which opposes Yoon, noted that “after seeing the situation in Bucha with his own eyes, it remains to be seen whether Yoon’s position on Ukraine will change.” Through the solidarity of free nations based on the “values diplomacy” Yoon has so far supported, such a visit will “help expand Korea’s role as a “global key state.” Given the potential risks and the fact that Kiev was only agreed upon at the last minute, “Yoon deserves applause for bringing to life his emphasis on the solidarity of liberal democracies.” However, the article’s author highlights the dangers of Moscow’s response to the delivery of lethal weapons, such as the likelihood that military cooperation between Russia and North Korea will increase tensions on the Korean Peninsula and the high likelihood that “billions of euros and dollars poured into Kiev may not be fully utilized” in a highly corrupt environment.
The Democrats just threw a tantrum – opposition lawmakers signed a joint statement accusing Yoon Suk-yeol of irresponsible behavior. President Yoon is putting the entire Republic of Korea at risk by seeking to bring the embers of that conflict to the Korean Peninsula with his travels to Ukraine. Separately, the president was lambasted for not cutting his visit short during the flooding. Kim Eui-kyeom, the DP spokesperson, and a former Blue House spokesman for President Moon Jae-in, who has been caught in this kind of manipulation, rhetorically asked, “the president, who should have canceled his schedule and returned immediately, extended his official visit.” “If Yoon did not visit Ukraine at the time, there would be no chance of him visiting Ukraine until the end of the war,” officials told him in response. “Even if Yoon rushes to back to Seoul, there is no room for him to change the situation with the weather, so he tried his best in Ukraine.”
And yes, Yoon tried very hard, but you can see the specific economic interests behind the coddling about freedom. Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction will cost up to 2,000 trillion won ($1.58 trillion), of which Korea could account for 66 trillion won worth of projects Of course, big companies such as Samsung C&T, Hyundai E&C, Kolon Global, HD Hyundai XiteSolution and Naver have already expressed their willingness to participate and profit from the country’s reconstruction. Boryspil International Airport is ready to be rebuilt by Hyundai Engineering & Construction, and Lviv could be rebuilt by Samsung Corp.
The same situation with military supplies, whether the weapons are lethal or not. The ROK is the world’s 9th largest arms exporter, but it aims to become one of the top four military suppliers by 2027, growing exports to $23.5 billion.
Therefore, President Yoon is not just acting in the interests of democracy or at the request of the US but also in an effort to find a way out of South Korea’s challenging economic condition by growing the arms trade or advocating for ROK involvement in Ukraine’s reconstruction. However, we will hope that Seoul will maintain its political stance and that the “tacit understanding” between Seoul and Moscow won’t result in a crisis in the two nations’ relations.
Konstantin Asmolov, PhD in History, leading research fellow at the Center for Korean Studies of the Institute of China and Modern Asia at the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
