As many experts had predicted, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan beat his rival in the Turkish presidential elections in a second round of voting, and is set to be sworn in for his third term as president. His triumph after a close-run first round has been celebrated both in Turkey and abroad, but the 69-year old populist and Islamist leader, who has been in power for two decades, faces serious challenges as he begins his new five-year term.
In effect, Erdoğan has radically changed Turkey’s political system, transforming a secular state with a multi-party parliamentary system, in which religion played a marginal role and the army a highly influential one, into a strong presidential republic relying for its support on the country’s religious majority and Turkish nationalists. Nationalism has always been a significant force in Turkey, and formed the basis of Ataturk’s reforms, but it was an essentially Western, secular nationalism. Erdoğan has combined nationalism and Islam, adding to the mixture a strong presidential authority and an aggressive foreign policy. He has also been able to benefit from the rivalry between the West and Asia and use it to strengthen Turkey’s status and influence on the international stage.
His rival in the elections, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu appears to have played his cards badly in the runup to second round of voting. His openly racist rhetoric, primarily directed against the more than 3.5 million Syrian refugees living in Turkey, may well have backfired and spoiled his chances. At least 200,000 Syrians have now received Turkish citizenship and they make an important contribution to the country’s economy – something the business community is well aware of. It is estimated that in 2020 Syrians invested more than $500 million in the Turkish business sector, mainly in small and medium-sized enterprises.
Kılıçdaroğlu’s pro-Western sympathies also did him no favors. In his relations with Europe, which many Turks see as patronizing and pretentious, Erdoğan prides himself on his independence. Nevertheless, Kılıçdaroğlu won more than 47% of the vote, which clearly indicates that millions of voters are dissatisfied with the way things are going in Turkey. One of the challenges facing Erdoğan is posed by Turkey’s 14 million Kurds, who make up some 18% of the population. The question of the Kurds’ political rights was a central issue in the recent elections, and, significantly, pro-Kurdish parties supported Kılıçdaroğlu. Is Erdoğan, who in the past lifted language and cultural restrictions from the Kurds, now preparing to fight them?
The elections in Turkey were widely covered by the international media, especially in the West, not least because the results of the vote will determine the path that this important country, with its very significance influence in the Middle East and Central Asia, will take over the next few years. It is no secret that most European leaders, like the US government, would have liked to see Erdoğan’s career come to an end, but not for the reasons one might suppose. This is nothing to do with his trademark fusion of politics and Islam. It is more to do with his policies, and the fact that under Erdoğan Turkey has become not only a rising economic power but also a regional and geopolitical player with a network of opposing connections and alliances. Since Turkey is one of NATO’s founding states, Erdoğan’s close relations with the Russian President Vladimir Putin, especially in relation to Syria and Ukraine, have raised eyebrows in certain quarters. Ankara’s approval is also required if Sweden is to join NATO.
At the beginning of his first term as president, Erdoğan espoused a policy of “no disagreements with neighboring countries,” but he soon departed from this policy as Turkey became embroiled in disputes in Northern Syria, Iraqi Kurdistan, Armenia, Libya, Egypt and Israel. Later he changed his policy again, at least in relation to Syria, Israel and Egypt, and he is currently adopting a more pragmatic approach in relation to the Persian Gulf states. His alliance with Moscow has also borne fruit as he attempts to turn Turkey into a global LNG distribution hub. Surprisingly, Erdoğan has been able to forge close relations with Russia and Iran while still retaining generally cordial relations with the US, despite periods of tension. Turkey also has its problems with Iran, and although the two countries have cooperated in such fields as trade and infrastructure development, there is also tension between them as a result of their being on opposing sides in the Syria conflict.
All experts are agreed on one thing – that over the next few years Erdoğan will continue to have good relations with Moscow. It will be interesting to see whether he will be prepared to change his policy in relation to Syria and accept the ongoing rehabilitation (at least within the League of Arab States) of President Bashar al-Assad. It appears likely that he will finally make peace with Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. He has already distanced himself from the exiled leaders of the Moslem Brotherhood, but Ankara’s support for the Islamist faction in Libya remains a problem. In fact, despite the signs that he is adopting a more moderate line, Erdoğan’s characteristic brand of conservative Islam continues to attract supporters from outside Turkey. His victory was celebrated with great ceremony both in the Libyan capital Tripoli and in Palestine’s Gaza City.
But not all is well between Turkey and its Arab neighbors. In addition to the problem of Erdoğan’s support for anti-government rebels in Syria, his relations with Baghdad are also rather fraught. Turkish troops have made several incursions into Iraqi territory and Ankara’s ambitious project to construct a number of dams across the Euphrates and its tributaries has had catastrophic environmental consequences in Iraq and many regions of Syria.
Erdoğan is a confirmed nationalist who has ambitions to restore Turkey to the glory of its Ottoman past, therefore in order to understand him it is important to look at the world from his perspective. It seems likely, and most experts are agreed on this point, that following his recent victory Erdoğan will continue with his trademark policies, even though this may further inflame Turkey’s relations with the so-called Western democracies. Now that he has entrenched his position and turned Turkey into a significant geopolitical force neither Europe nor the US can risk an open confrontation with him, and instead will have to woo him. And inside Turkey, Erdoğan will have to live with the fact that almost half of the electorate voted for the opposition candidate. As the Arab Times has pointed out, it is very difficult to lead a polarized nation with a deepening economic crisis.
In recognition of the good relations and contacts between Russia and Turkey, the Russian President Vladimir Putin has described Erdoğan’s victory as the “legitimate result” of his “selfless work” as the head of state. He considers that the victory is “clear evidence of the Turkish public’s support” both for the president’s efforts to strengthen Turkey’s national sovereignty and for Ankara’s independent foreign policy. Moscow values the Turkish president’s personal contribution to the strengthening of friendly relations between Russia and Turkey, the Russian president added in a telegram to his Turkish counterpart. He also highlighted Erdoğan’s contribution to the development of mutual cooperation between the two countries. “I would like to restate my willingness to continue with out constructive dialog on current issues relevant to our shared regional and international agenda. <…> I sincerely wish you new successes in your responsible activities as head of state, as well as health and prosperity,” the Russian President concluded.
Viktor Mikhin, corresponding member of RANS, exclusively for the online journal “New Eastern Outlook.”
