In Turkey, the pre-election struggle of the main candidates for the presidency is in full swing. Despite the sharp nature of the confrontation between the main contenders in the presidential elections (from the ruling party Recep Erdoğan and from the opposition party Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu), the maturity of Turkish democracy and features of Turkish culture so far in general demonstrate the correct attitude of experienced politicians to each other.
It so happens that the tension of the forthcoming elections is mostly connected, on the one hand, with the long period of ruling of the leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) Recep Erdoğan during the last two decades and, on the other hand, with the special attention of external forces to the Turkish political life, where the USA tries to impose their will and their favorite on the Turkish voters. Washington, as you know, not so much for reasons of strengthening the authoritarian power of the Turkish president and some departure from the norms of democracy, but in connection with the strengthening of Erdoğan’s course independent of the US dictate (primarily, the development of pragmatic and mutually beneficial Turkish-Russian relations in the modern period) is trying to make an effort to change the regime in Ankara.
It is this reality that brings US diplomacy to the opposition side of the barricades in the Turkish elections. Moreover, many experts have a good reason to believe that Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leader of the People’s Republican Party (CHP), is a poor choice because of his weakness compared to the charismatic Recep Erdoğan.
Kılıçdaroğlu has already unveiled his election program in the field of domestic and foreign policy, which emphasizes: strengthening democratic norms; fighting corruption; strengthening allied relations with the US, EU and NATO countries; resuming the course of integration with the EU; maintaining pragmatic relations with the rest of the outside world (including Russia), especially in the field of economy and trade. Such a political declaration from the opposition CHP was generally predictable.
It is true that today the situation in the world and Turkey itself has changed rapidly, the crisis of the unipolar world order with the hegemony of the United States is more and more replaced by the objective course of history in favor of a multipolar structure, where Turkey can take its rightful place and not remain a “slave puppet” in the hands of the same United States. During the years of Erdoğan’s rule, Turkey itself has changed in the direction of increasing independence and economic cooperation with the new major players (including Russia and China). Moreover, Turkey’s active policy in North Africa, the Middle East, the South Caucasus and Central Asia has achieved considerable success in the economy, energy, transit communications and military cooperation. In fact, the Organization of Turkic States created by Turkey’s efforts in 2021 is evidence of ambitious claims to form a new Turkic pole and a common Turkic market.
Meanwhile, last week’s Turkish election campaign saw a certain surge of unfounded opposition expectations in terms of the likelihood of Erdoğan himself dropping out of the race, which was due to the president’s unexpected deterioration of health during an evening TV broadcast. Some of Erdoğan’s opponents inside and outside Turkey began to support unsubstantiated and unverified versions that he allegedly had a myocardial infarction and was hospitalized, while official sources denied such information, and it was only a mild cold. This is not surprising, given the President’s busy schedule in general, and especially during the pre-election period (not to mention the situation caused by the aftermath of the devastating earthquake).
It is also important to stress here that opposition candidates expressed support for the President and wished him a speedy recovery. This shows the level of political culture of Turkey’s politicians.
Erdoğan only had to cancel his activities for a day and postpone some campaign activities (in particular, participation in a rally in Kayseria). Nevertheless, on April 27, the Turkish president, along with his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, remotely participated by video communication in the launch of the nuclear fuel for the first reactor of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant.
We have to admit that the Turkish authorities started demonstrating and presenting important achievements of the domestic economy and the military-industrial complex in particular to the public and the outside world almost on a daily basis as part of R. Erdoğan’s election campaign. And the list of these achievements was very impressive: Turkey’s first ever Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, the new Kızılelma UAV, the Anadolu cruiser, the Surface-to-air missile system (SİPER) air defense system, the Altay tank, the 5th generation TAI Hürjet fighter jet, the Togg electric car, Turkey’s first astronauts and a satellite, gas fields in the Turkish Mediterranean, gas discounts for citizens and organizations.
Some of the aforementioned acquisitions have already passed preliminary tests and are being put into circulation, others are yet to be tested by the troops and army ranges, and cosmonauts who have passed special training will soon make their first flight. However, these achievements of the military-industrial complex and the Turkish economy, which are also complemented by promising Turkish-Russian mega-projects for a gas hub and plans for a second nuclear power plant at Sinop on the Black Sea, as well as the promise of a major construction boom for earthquake-stricken areas, certainly underscore the success of Erdoğan’s rule and his new ambitious plans for the country. Accordingly, the experienced Erdoğan is well ahead of his opponents in the upcoming elections with his competent policies and campaign.
Naturally, the government is obliged to show the public its achievements over the past period, since the opposition cannot compete with it for objective reasons. Simply because the government is responsible for the real economy and defense. It is not empty words and promises, but real domestic goods and products, realized and realistic plans in cooperation with the same Russia that speak for Erdoğan today in Turkish society. In other words, the AKP leader contrasts the empty and controversial promises of the leader of the CHP with responsible deeds and his will to achieve new successes on the way to strengthening an independent and strong Turkey.
Moreover, the Turkish and Russian presidents’ joint participation in the Akkuyu nuclear power plant fuel launch during the pre-election period showed once again that President Erdoğan is on the right track to build a strategic partnership with Russia. In turn, President Ilham Aliyev’s visit to Turkey and his participation with Recep Erdoğan in the Techno Festival on April 29 of this year became a new form of pre-election platform where the public was able to see not only the success of Turkish military and economic products in general but also focused voters’ attention on the president’s effective foreign diplomacy to integrate the Turkish world, military victory in Karabakh, expansion of military cooperation between them (in particular, the establishment of joint production in Azerbaijan and the creation of a joint venture with Russia).
Thus, President Recep Erdoğan demonstrates active political form and health recovery. Consequently, the chances of victory in the presidential elections lean in favor of the main favorite, Erdoğan, who will be voted for by his traditional supporters and pragmatists, believers and national patriots, representatives of big capital and some young people, as well as the inert masses from the “swamp,” who for predictable constancy, got an opportunity to appreciate the achievements and new mega-projects.
Aleksandr SVARANTS, PhD in political science, professor, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”
