Japan’s new intelligence agency signals a decisive break from postwar restraint, but its strategic gains may come at the cost of domestic freedoms and heightened Indo-Pacific tensions—a classic case of opening Pandora’s box.
Introduction
Japan’s Intelligence Initiative
Japan is making a bold move to create a national intelligence agency for the first time since World War II, and it is seeking assistance from its western partners in this regard. According to the media, intelligence officials from the United States, Japan’s main security ally, have offered input on cyber defense systems and methods of countering industrial espionage. It should be mentioned that the government under PM Takaichi succeeded in adopting a resolution on establishing a national intelligence agency in both the upper and lower houses. There are two establishments created in this piece of legislation: the first one is called the National Intelligence Council, which acts as a central command of the intelligence process, and the other one is for the operational part.
Historical Perspective
Richard J. Samuels once noted, “Japan’s postwar security institutions were designed as much to restrain state power as to defend the state.” During the Second World War, Japan did not have any single unified intelligence command; rather, it comprised several disintegrated units that performed the very functions of espionage and covert operations. These include the Kempeitai, Tokubetsu Kōtō Keisatsu (also known as Tokko), and Nakano School. This is the reason why, till today, Japan struggles to have any centralized intelligence unit. Soon after WWII, the Allied Occupation permanently dissolved these institutions and introduced such restrictions that prohibited Japan for decades from establishing any such organization.
Why Is Japan Creating a New Intelligence Agency?
There is no wonder that Japan under PM Takaichi would accuse China and Russia of spying in her country. It’s West’s traditional policy that whenever they want to introduce some hawkish policies that could backfire domestically, they frame it as a national security concern, accusing their rivals of undermining their security and national sovereignty. These fears are reflected in the reports in ultra-liberal American media, as usual, accusing Russia and China of intelligence activities.
Moreover, the US pivot to the Western Hemisphere further provided impetus to this decision. The real reason behind this is to create instability in the Indo-Pacific region, at the doorsteps of the PRC, which has been the ultimate objective of the US.
Japan’s Broader Strategic Vision
Since the inception of her government, Japanese PM Takaichi has challenged the regional status quo in the Indo-Pacific. Remember, it was Takaichi who remarked that any insurgency against Taiwan would be considered a national security threat to Japan, which resulted in tensions with the PRC. It’s Takaichi, under which Japan intends to install surface-to-air missiles on its island located in the western part of Japan, close to Taiwan, by 2031. In addition to this, PM Takaichi’s recent visit to India, during which an agreement was made that India will be provided with the design plan of Mogami ships, adds another nail in the coffin.
And, finally, the creation of an intelligence unit is basically part of Japan’s broader and evolving Indo-Pacific strategy. Under the umbrella of no more free riding services, the US is basically emboldening regional entities to pursue offensive policies. However, if states in the Western Hemisphere try to pursue the same policies, the US gets offended. The Asia-Pacific is no doubt a complex geopolitical spot, but ignoring or instigating other powers on the indications of the US could only bring chaos to the region.
Strategic Implications
One of the major repercussions of this development would be for Japan’s domestic situation. Japanese people have long been holding views over public privacy and freedom of expression. The establishment of such an agency could erode civil liberties. Mizuho Fukushima, Japan’s opposition lawmaker, stated, “The lack of a stand-alone intelligence agency over the past eight decades was a choice rooted in Japan’s commitment to being a peaceful nation that renounces war and the result of lessons learned from its own history. The new agency infringes upon the right to privacy and other rights and paves the way for a surveillance society.”
With regards to the regional implications, this would only exacerbate the already volatile situation. Sino-Japanese competition would become fiercer. And, if China took any step, it would then not be in the Japanese control to handle the repercussions. Likewise, this decision could create an espionage race where other countries, including Taiwan, South Korea, or the Philippines, would follow suit. Rather than improving regional stability, it may accelerate competition in the less visible domains of espionage and information warfare.
Conclusion
“To be the enemy of the US is dangerous; to be its friend is lethal” (Henry Kissinger)
The US and other western partners are supporting Japan in its efforts to create an intelligence agency. However, it must be noted that it’s the same US that has sidelined its allies when they needed it the most. So, it might today support Japanese actions, but in case of any regional contest, the US would once again leave them alone. So instead of playing the US role, Japan must pursue a policy of restraint and engagement with the PRC, resolving every issue diplomatically and improving communication channels between the two. And, if not, the history would repeat itself, and the consequences would then be out of control.
Taut Bataut is a researcher and writer who publishes on South Asian geopolitics
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