The Takaichi visit shows that India and Japan are hedging their bets as faith in U.S. security guarantees wanes, seeking deeper economic and defense cooperation to navigate a shifting Indo-Pacific order. Yet, despite the fanfare, the partnership remains more a marriage of necessity than a strategic revolution, constrained by differing interests and the realities of regional geopolitics.
The US, under President Donald Trump, since January 2025, started to retreat back from a more confrontational to a diplomatic tone towards China, giving rise to the G-2. This causes irritation amongst the US allies in the Asia-Pacific region. Moreover, the initiation of a tariff war against friends and foes by President Trump, the pivot to the western hemisphere, and the recent war against Iran have broken hell for the US allies. To overcome and to rewire the so-called Indo-Pacific vision, with or without the US, Japanese PM Sanai Takaichi paid a high-level visit to India from 1st July to 3rd July 2026. Was this visit a matter of strategic promise or geopolitical necessity? It remains a big question.
Why India and Japan Need Each Other
India and Japan are not partners by birth; rather, it’s their interest-based alignment that pushes them together. Both are close US partners in the region, which were prepared by Americans over decades to hurt the PRC. However, both have now been betrayed by the US in this regard. Under the presidency of Donald Trump, the US is now retreating back from its traditional global policeman role, no longer providing free-riding services to its allies. Moreover, the reluctance of US allies to offer assistance over the issue of the Strait of Hormuz further exacerbated the situation, with Trump bashing Japan and other allies in the region. Likewise, since January 2025, US-India relations have also deteriorated, with the Trump administration tilting more towards Pakistan this time. The difference in trade and tariffs created fissures between the two likeminded partners.
Moreover, recently the US changed its regional command name from Indo-Pacific to the US Pacific Command, which further created anxiety in New Delhi, whose entire anti-China narrative was based on its net-security provider status in the region. The July visit by Japanese PM Takaichi to India, marking the 16th India-Japan Annual Summit, revolves around these uncertainties. For decades, the West has created a narrative against the PRC in the region. With the gradual decrease in US support, these countries, like Japan, India, etc., need some cooperation framework with each other to uphold their traditional posture towards China. The PRC’s peaceful economic rise, ever-increasing military power, and resilient global supply chain network have caused irritation amongst the strategic circles of these US allies. As both Japan and India are no longer getting the US free-riding services, they want to create some loose multilateral framework to boost their economic and defense ties with greater strategic autonomy.
Key Takeaways of the Meeting
“Vision without execution is hallucination” (Thomas Edison)
During this three-day visit, both India and Japan signed a number of agreements. However, one of the biggest commitments was made by Japanese companies when they invested close to $12.5 billion in India as the executives signed 129 memorandums of understanding (MoUs) at the India-Japan Joint Economic Forum. Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) Chairman and CEO Ishiguro Norihiko said, “Japan-India economic relations are now at an unprecedented high level. According to JETRO’s survey, more than 80 percent of the Japanese companies operating in India are planning to expand their local business going forward.”
In addition, cooperation between India and Japan in the rare-earths industry will include efforts to increase the security of supply chains and improve the infrastructure of processing plants in order to limit the risks related to the single-source dependency in the rare-earths industry. Here, the single-source means the PRC. Both want to reduce their dependence on Chinese supplies. Actions speak louder than words. Even if the US is not able to do this, how can its allies?
The other announcement is the deal on the joint development of military equipment by India and Japan for the first time. As per the plan of action by Japan, India will receive the design blueprints of the Mogami warships and even have the opportunity to construct them in India using the material from Japan. The ships, which will cost around $500 million, will be armed with anti-air and anti-ship missiles as well as torpedoes. In addition to that, in a joint statement, both agreed to a direct yen/rupee settlement system.
The Limits of Strategic Convergence
Henry Kissinger once noted, “Power is constrained by circumstances.” Sometimes big diplomatic promises remained limited to just paperwork. And the Indo-Japanese case could meet the same fate. Although neither of them mentioned the PRC explicitly, their every step, in particular the defense one and those related to their Free and Open Indo-Pacific vision, is pointed towards China in one way or the other. Japan, under PM Takaichi, is no doubt revising its principles of defense equipment and technology; it still faces constitutional constraints.
Just imagine, if Japan re-emerges as the one it was in the past, hell will break out in the region. Framing China as a threat, knowing the fact that it’s strictly tied to Beijing’s exports, is just another way of creating vulnerabilities in the region. Likewise, India’s commitment to strategic autonomy and its cordial relations with Russia do not align with those of Japan. This clearly shows that the relationship still has boundaries. Therefore, it can be concluded that the meeting ceased to be an inflection point; rather, it just added to the already agreed-upon things.
Conclusion
The visit by PM Takaichi to India is no doubt time-sensitive and elevated the partnership level between the two; it still oscillates between a strategic turning point and a diplomatic meet-and-greet session. India and Japan have not only instigated the PRC as they have been doing for decades but also put another nail in the coffin by challenging the US dollar hegemony. Challenging both major powers simultaneously would only bring chaos in their region. In essence, Japan and India must learn from the recent US-Iran war that the neighborhood matters most. States located in the same region should cooperate with each other, which the PRC has long been contending.
Taut Bataut is a researcher and writer who publishes on South Asian geopolitics
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