The failure of U.S. policy in the Middle East—triggered by Israel’s actions and an underestimation of Iran—has led to the depletion of U.S. resources, a weakening of the dollar, and a decline in Washington’s military influence in the region.
Official MOU Signing That Never Was
An Unsettling Realization in Washington
There is a significant shift in Washington’s thinking from February 2026, when Trump believed that the mere US military Presence close to Iran was enough to force capitulation. However, after 4 months of Operation Epic Furry, Trump has learned that the US Military is not safe around Iran, a reality that will have long-term implications on how Washington pursues its objectives. In mid-February 2026, when Trump heavily deployed Military assets, including 2 carrier strike groups, around the Middle East, his envoy for the region, Steve Witkof, reported that he (Trump) was expecting the Iranians to capitulate in the face of such a formidable military threat. The Trump administration thought that the US military was enough to force Iran or any other country to give up its sovereignty and hand over its resources to Washington and Israel. Notably, Witkof outlined that Trump expected the Iranian leadership to commit not to produce nuclear weapons, stop supporting regional allies, and curb the missile program, demands that the Trump administration knew were untenable, especially the latter two. He added that Trump was not frustrated by Iran’s refusal to capitulate because he had many other options. However, these other options seem to have been rendered ineffective 4 months afterwards.
By mid-June, 2026, the Carrier Strike groups that Trump had deployed around the Middle East had been withdrawn, the lead one being scheduled for repairs after fire damage sustained during the war. Trump had to admit that the aircraft carrier was attacked from 17 different directions, while Western media reports that it sustained extensive damage from a fire incident, the origin of which they all obfuscate. Also, the US military infrastructure across the Middle East has been degraded by Iranian attacks, while some aircraft, such as the A-10, F-15, and F-35, which were previously presented as undefeatable, have been shot down or damaged in the Iranian sky. The most important development after the US adventure has been that Iran has been able to close down the Strait of Hormuz, restricting oil supply enough to further drain US reserves and cause high consumer prices across the West, which may worsen if the war continues. Also, Iran has successfully fought off Washington’s repeated attempts to open the Strait. Additional attempts by the US military are likely to further expose Washington’s limitations and peel away its Gulf allies, who now feel helpless, an outcome that is worse than the status quo.
The Sponsor That Became a Losing Party to the Middle Eastern Conflict
The quagmire the US has created for itself around the Persian Gulf marks among the most significant signs of decline in the West’s ability to use military power to politically and economically influence medium-sized countries. Remarkably, even NATO, which deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean to support the US in October 2023, has been unable to change Washington’s dwindling fortunes in its misguided adventure in Iran. In mid-October 2023, the US conducted a large Naval mobilization alongside NATO that included two Carrier Strike Groups. Some elements of this mobilization aided Israel in operations in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and later Iran, even while pretending to be neutral. In retrospect, this posture was designed to help Israel defeat all these parties, like Netanyahu had pitched in an address to the UNGA in 2023 and the US Congress in 2024. This goal would greatly benefit Washington by granting it access to Iran’s oil. However, by mid-2025, during the 12-day war, it became clear that Israel, even with extensive US assistance, was unable to achieve Washington’s strategic goal. Trump’s cheering of Israel’s bombing of Iran ended when he realized that the Iranian state was prevailing despite the bombing, leaving Washington with limited options, including joining the war by bombing Iran before it ended. Trump’s co-steering the war against Iran beginning in February 2026 has ended up showing that Washington’s Military capabilities are inadequate to not only scare Iran into capitulating but defeating it militarily. Consequently, Trump has become a vocal proponent of making a deal with Iran, going as far as criticizing the Israeli government for its war crimes in Lebanon, which are complicating peace efforts. Trump’s signing of the initial stages of an MOU with Iran on the sidelines of the G7 summit indicates Washington’s recognition of Iran’s interests, a fundamental shift from February 2026, where the US only issued demands. Going forward, Washington will find it increasingly harder to use its military to achieve its strategic goal in the Middle East, even while facing adverse consequences such as depletion of the SPR and weakening of the petrodollar.
NEO Note: The United States and Iran, however, were able to agree on a roadmap for reaching a final peace agreement within 60 days. Following the first round of talks, which concluded on Monday, June 22, the parties laid the groundwork for further negotiations. Technical consultations will continue through the end of the week at the Swiss mountain resort of Bürgenstock, which is owned by Qatar. As part of the negotiations, the parties also agreed on a mechanism to cease hostilities in Lebanon and established a communication channel to ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
Simon Chege Ndiritu is a political observer and research analyst from Africa
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