The annual Shangri-La Dialogue took place in Singapore from May 29-31, serving as an important platform for exchanging views on the situation in the Indo-Pacific region.
Preliminary Remarks
The Shangri-La Dialogue is enhanced by its high-level participants, which include not only authoritative experts but also defense ministers from leading regional countries. This year’s event was attended by defense ministers from the United States, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines, and other countries in the region, who spoke at sessions and met with their counterparts bilaterally.
A long-standing ritual of the Shangri-La Dialogue is the invitation of a sitting head of state as a guest of honor. Last year, that guest was French President Emmanuel Macron – a first for Europe. However, at this year’s event, everything returned to normal, and the guest of honor was Vietnamese President To Lam, whose country is significant in the Southeast Asian subregion to which Singapore also belongs.
This last circumstance highlighted the main concern of the Shangri-La Dialogue 2026: rising tensions of the situation in Southeast Asia.
Regional Background
Tensions in Southeast Asia began to rise at the beginning of the last decade and have been steadily increasing since then. It is in this sub-region that the focus of the global struggle between the two leading global players, the United States and China, is shifting. As for the involvement of the United States in armed aggression against Iran, a more or less rational explanation for this fact (if there is one at all) may be found in the US-Chinese confrontation centered in Southeast Asia.
However, recently there has been a remarkable trend of Washington and Beijing trying to find some kind of balance amidst their mutual competition in the international arena. In this regard, Washington may make some tactical concessions in the sub-region located on the other side of the globe to focus on the implementation of the renewed Monroe Doctrine, which forms the basis of the new US National Security Strategy. In particular, during the latest meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, apparently the possibility of softening the American stance on Taiwan was discussed. Again, however, we note that the “Trump gang” is opposed by a very powerful pro-Taiwan lobby.
But even if Washington chooses the “Trump strategy” on Taiwan (in the author’s opinion, a very dubious one), Beijing will still face another challenge that is becoming more noticeable and may well become fundamental to Southeast Asia. Japanese presence – a key American ally – in Southeast Asia in general and in Taiwan in particular is growing. It cannot be ruled out that over time, Japan will replace the United States here in the confrontation with China, a prospect that has warranted an expected assessment.
Main Participants
The transformation of the situation in Southeast Asia was reflected in the speeches at the forum by representatives of all three leading regional powers. Commentators drew particular attention to the unusual restraint in US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s speech, which dealt with the current state of relations with China. At the same time, the exceptional importance of the situation “in the Pacific region” was emphasized, where the United States intends to act in close cooperation with “allies and partners”.
China, of course, was not included in these lists, but bilateral relations were called “the best in many years”, and Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing two weeks earlier was labeled “historic.” The current relations with the United States and the past talks between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Donald Trump were described similarly in a speech by Chinese representative Meng Xiangqing, professor at the National Defense University, who called for “healthy, stable, and sustainable development of ties” with the United States, including the defense sector.
Unfortunately, the Minister of Defense of Japan and Professor Meng Xiangqing did not address each other in such a positive way. In particular, they disagreed on which of the two countries was actually militarizing. The nature of Koizumi’s activities on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue and, in general, the current state of Japanese-Chinese relations only confirm that these relations are becoming the main obstacle to the region’s prosperity.
Potential “Trumpism” In the Region
In this regard, an issue outwardly minor and even extraneous to the complex of problems discussed here, but the consequences of which can be very significant, should be noted. There has been a sharp increase in “Trumpists” (previously completely marginal) in Australia, which plays an important role in IT. Something similar is also happening in Japan (as well as in Europe).
Although “Trumpism” is a very vague concept, there is an important common element in it, which was identified by its author during his first presidency. In the fall of 2016, during a speech at the UN General Assembly, Donald Trump, who had just been elected to this post, stated approximately the following: the United States does not intend to continue spreading the right lifestyle in other countries and will focus on solving its own problems. It cannot be ruled out that if this element of “Trumpism” develops in different countries, i.e., a focus on solving domestic problems, various kinds of conflicts in international relations will be more or less successfully resolved.
For this, of course, the widespread and serious issue of imposing one’s own version of the rules on other countries should be eliminated. This is often justified by far-fetched quasi-religious constructions, as well as a poor understanding of history. A certain “right way of life” should spread by itself via positive demonstration and not with the help of an aircraft carrier. By the way, it was this positive thesis that underlay the worldview of the founding fathers of the United States, whose followers the current American “neo-isolationists” consider themselves to be.
In general, the discussions during the latest Shangri-La Dialogue reflected the dynamically developing transitional situation in the Indo-Pacific region and especially in the sub-region of Southeast Asia, which is becoming critically important today.
Vladimir Terekhov, expert on Asia-Pacific region issues
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