A significant event in the formation of both Japan’s postwar foreign policy and the situation in the critically important Southeast Asian subregion was Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi’s tour to Indonesia and the Philippines in early May.
Japan is once again “moving southwest.”
In the postwar period, the gradual resumption of the “move to the southwest” was primarily achieved (for obvious reasons) by exploiting the rapidly growing economy. In other words, the “Akamatsu Doctrine” concept of “Asia for the Asians” finally began to be realized. This is largely why the “first wave of Asian tigers” emerged, including South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Moreover, the economic development of the PRC, which began in the 1960s, was also largely due to the restoration of relations with Japan. This, incidentally, alarmed Washington, where the very fact of the covert development of Japanese-Chinese relations, even in the absence of such relations at the diplomatic level, was viewed as little short of betrayal by the new ally-former enemy. The signing of the US-China “Shanghai Communique” in 1972 was largely driven by considerations of preempting (but certainly not solely) the establishment of relations with China.
As for Japan’s renewed “southwestward movement,” the military component has once again become prominent with the “normalization” process that began two decades ago. Defense Minister S. Koizumi’s much-discussed tour to Southeast Asia should be seen as part of this trend.
Japanese Defense Minister’s Visit to Indonesia
The first framework document establishing Japanese-Indonesian defense cooperation was the memorandum signed in 2015. In March 2021, Toshimitsu Motegi and Prabowo Subianto signed the Agreement on the Procedure for the Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology. It is worth noting that Motegi was then Japan’s Foreign Minister, while Prabowo served as Indonesia’s Defense Minister.
Koizumi’s current visit to Indonesia marks the next step in this trend. A very significant event in bilateral relations was Indonesian President Prabowo’s state visit to Japan the previous month, during which he held talks with Prime Minister Sasuke Takaichi.
Moreover, this event was an important sign of Indonesia’s overall foreign policy shift toward Japan (as well as Australia and the United States). Although Jakarta is attempting to maintain a balancing act in its relations with leading regional players, it’s worth noting that President Prabowo traveled directly from Tokyo to China. The Indonesian government’s intention to purchase 42 Chinese J-10 fighter jets (apparently replacing the previously planned French Rafale), which performed well during the latest Pakistani-Indian conflict in May 2025, was previously reported.
The topic of arms purchases, this time Japanese, was also the focus of talks between Koizumi and his counterpart, Syafri Syamseddin, in Jakarta. Specifically, the discussion focused on the purchase of submarines, which are being decommissioned from the Japanese Navy. A bilateral expert group will be formed to develop the details of the future agreement. Notably, Koizumi’s remark at the final press conference was that the future deal was becoming possible due to the radical modernization of export regulations for lethal weapons produced by the country’s military-industrial complex by the Takaichi government.
Koizumi visited the Philippines
The same factor, Tokyo’s abandonment of the post-war ban on the export of “lethal” weapons, allowed Koizumi, during his visit to the Philippines, to discuss the transfer of decommissioned destroyers to the country. A preliminary agreement on this had been reached a year earlier.
It is worth noting that Koizumi’s visit to the Philippines coincided with the final phase of the latest international military exercises, Balikatan. Japan was a direct participant for the first time, and the third of seven, after the Philippines and the United States. The launch of a Type 88 anti-ship missile “towards the South China Sea” gave this participation a particularly provocative character toward China. However, a certain degree of politeness toward China was nevertheless observed, as the launch took place after Koizumi’s departure for his homeland. On the eve of the Balikatan exercises, General Robert Brawner, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, made a noteworthy statement: “Eighty-one years after the end of World War II, Japanese troops will set foot on Philippine soil for the first time. We were once in different camps; today we are on the same side.” This statement, the upcoming deal to supply the Philippines with Japanese destroyers (as well as TC-90 maritime reconnaissance aircraft), and the discussed visit of President Koizumi to the country demonstrate the success of Japan’s resumption of its “southwestward movement.”
As for the Philippines, the current leadership is seeking to remove any potential obstacles. Apparently, Vice President Sara Duterte, the daughter of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, under whom the country’s foreign policy was more balanced, is being considered as such a candidate. Let’s remember that R. Duterte is imprisoned at the International Criminal Court in The Hague, which (along with several others) is a tool of the liberal globalist backstage. Even while behind bars, he convincingly won the mayoral election in Davao, the second-largest city. His daughter is undoubtedly the leading presidential candidate in the upcoming general elections in 2028. However, the parliament, controlled by the current government, impeached her in early May, with subsequent prosecution and, consequently, disqualification from the upcoming elections.
Finally, it should be noted that Japan’s increasing activity in its “southwestward movement” is predictably causing concern in China. This is particularly true of the military component of this trend, which is due to the relatively recent history of Japanese-Chinese relations. Recently, Japan has been portrayed here as a “gray rhinoceros,” apparently referring to the stilted stereotype of the animal: large mass and strength, an aggressive, nasty character, and a lack of intelligence.
However, Japanese are unlikely to agree with this characterization of their country.
Vladimir Terekhov, expert on Asia-Pacific issues
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