On 3 June, local government elections and parliamentary by-elections took place in South Korea. The ruling Democratic Party “Toburo” won a decisive victory.
The course of the elections
It should be recalled that, in addition to 14 seats in parliament, South Koreans were to elect 16 mayors of centrally administered cities and provincial governors, 227 mayors of provincial cities, heads of municipal districts and counties, 933 members of the legislative assemblies of centrally administered cities and provinces, and 3,035 members of the legislative assemblies of provincial cities, municipal districts, and counties.
The first nationwide elections after Lee Jae Myung’s administration came to power were seen as an indicator of the level of public trust in the country’s leadership. Therefore, President Lee undertook the maximum number of measures to ensure the ‘right picture.’ On the one hand, the authorities pledged to mercilessly combat electoral violations; on the other hand, through media associated with the authorities, the argument was actively disseminated that, according to polls, the entire nation, especially the population of key cities, longed for a Democratic victory (with the gap in percentage chances in some cases exceeding 10 per cent), but the conservatives, most of whom are covert supporters of former President Yoon Suk-yeol, who wanted to impose martial law, trample democracy and imprison the current president, are capable of any intrigues possible.
On 29-30 May, a snap vote took place in the Republic of Korea for the local and additional parliamentary elections. According to the Central Election Commission, over the two days, 10,498,411 people, or 23.51 per cent of the 44,649,908 registered voters, including the president and most politicians, cast their votes. To what extent such a high percentage of ballots cast in advance may facilitate violations is a matter of debate.
In total, voter turnout was 60.7 per cent, which is the second highest figure in the history of local elections.
The very first polls demonstrated that the ‘People Power Party’ was leading in only one governor’s race, but in the end the conservatives held their electoral stronghold – the provinces of North and South Gyeongsang, as well as the city of Daegu. Everything else, except Seoul, now belongs to the Democrats: 12 out of 16 provincial governor and centrally administered city mayor positions. In addition, representatives of the Democratic Party obtained the headships of 119 out of 227 local government bodies – mayors of provincial cities, as well as heads of municipal districts and counties. More than a half. The ‘People Power Party’ took 95 seats, the ‘Fatherland Renewal Party’ (that of Cho Kuk) achieved two victories, and independent candidates took 11 seats.
In the parliamentary by-elections, the Democrats won 9 out of 14 seats, the conservatives 4, and another seat in Busan was taken by an independent candidate and former leader of the ‘People Power Party,’ Han Dong-hoon. For the Democrats, this is a formal victory, but previously all these seats used to be held by Democrats.
As a result, the Democratic Party will have 161 seats in the National Assembly, and for the People Power Party, this figure will amount to 110. Thus, the ruling party will retain its parliamentary majority.
Election results: key figures and cities
Seoul. The incumbent mayor, Oh Se-hoon from the People Power Party, managed to turn the tide of the election race. Despite initially trailing the Democratic candidate, Jeong Won-oh, after more than 93 per cent of the ballots were counted, he pulled ahead with 48.94 per cent, securing his fifth term. The margin was only 0.6 per cent, smaller than Yoon Suk-yeol’s margin in the presidential election.
Nevertheless, most districts of the city remained with the Democrats: they won in 17 out of 25, gaining control of the city council. This may make it difficult for Mayor Oh to pursue his policies without compromises.
Mayor Oh per se has established himself as one of the most pragmatic politicians in the conservative camp and an effective administrator. Although he has not yet displayed clear presidential ambitions, focusing on managing the capital, the party’s personnel deficit may push him down the path of Lee Myung-bak, who also came to power in the country as a successful mayor of Seoul.
Busan. Former Minister of Oceans Chung Jae-su, whose name appeared in a scandal involving the receipt of funds from the Unification Church, defeated the incumbent mayor Park Hyung-joon by a narrow margin: 50.56 per cent against 47.87 per cent. However, this victory did not come without ambiguous circumstances. Between 2018 and 2020, Chung Jae-su received between 30 and 40 million won (approximately 20,377 US dollars) in cash from the Church, as well as an expensive Bulgar watch. The latter has not yet been found, and the police are searching for the purchase receipt. His resignation and subsequent nomination to the new post, as it seems, proved sufficient for the voters.
It is worth noting that Chung Jae-su is not the first Democrat to occupy the office of the mayor of Busan. His predecessor, who took the post in 2016, was convicted of continual sexual harassment.
Gyeonggi Province. In this region, two women were contending for the post of governor. Victory was won by former party leader and former Minister of Justice Choo Mi-ae, with a score of 55.04 per cent against 39.37 per cent. She became the first female governor in South Korean political history.
Daegu. Candidate Kim Boo-kyum came close to victory, but this traditional conservative stronghold remained in their hands. Choo Kyung-ho won with 53.92 per cent against 45.05 per cent.
Parliamentary by-elections. The most dramatic constituency was where the independent candidate Han Dong-hoon was running. Ha Jeong-woo, a presidential advisor on AI and a young technocrat, was fielded by the Democratic Party against him. Han received 42.96 per cent, or 35,056 ballots, ousting Ha Jeong-woo, who received 41.26 per cent, by only 1,382 votes. The ‘People Power Party’ candidate came third with 15.76 per cent. This contributes to Han returning to big politics, although amidst the internal strife among the conservatives, it is unclear whether he will come back to the conservatives or build an independent career. In any case, the author sees a great political future for him.
As far as former Minister of Justice Cho Kuk is concerned, the leader of the party named after himself, who was put behind bars for corruption and pardoned by President Lee, did not become an MP. The conservative won with 34.83 per cent, the Democrat received 28.77 per cent, while Cho came third with 27.24 per cent. Perhaps such an outcome will finally prompt his party to merge into the Democratic Party.
Finally, former Democratic Party leader Song Young-gil (who, like Cho Kuk, served a sentence and was subsequently released) was re-elected to parliament, and he promised, if elected, to significantly step up the normalisation and restoration of contacts between Seoul and Moscow.
Full stop or comma?
Nevertheless, the Democratic victory was marred by an unprecedented shortage of ballot papers at 14 polling stations in certain districts of Seoul, which led to a temporary suspension of voting, as some voters reportedly left without actually casting their vote. By a strange coincidence, this problem occurred only in those districts where conservatives won.
Given the scandals involving the election commission in the previous years, the conservatives issued a statement that the election results under such conditions should be nullified, with the vote counting being revised. The latter is unlikely, but the conservatives have the opportunity to argue that the election outcome could have been different had it not been for this incident. Whether the People Power Party will succeed in at least getting a parliamentary investigation into the incident remains to be seen.
What to expect next?
The Democrats were hoping for a carte blanche, but that did not happen. Throughout their election campaign, the Democratic Party called on the public to pass a harsh sentence on those it called ‘remnants of Yoon’s rebel forces.’ However, a nationwide condemnation of the conservatives did not take place.
As conservative media noted, ‘the election results are not as much of a blank slate as they may seem. … Voters strengthened the government’s position, but also made it clear that dominance is not consensus.‘
In this regard, Lee Jae Myung stated that the Blue House ‘humbly accepts’ the will of the people expressed in the local and parliamentary by-elections, and promised to actively cooperate with the newly elected heads of local governments, regardless of their political affiliation. The president called on political circles to join forces to improve people’s lives and achieve balanced regional development.
And this is of particular importance, since South Korea is entering a two-year period without nationwide elections until 2028. Having won the ‘three crowns,’ the government can no longer legitimately blame local opposition intrigues for policy failures. Meanwhile, if in the first year President Lee was more occupied with settling in, setting tasks, and consolidating power, during the second year, results will be expected from him.
The Lee government spent its first year setting objectives. The second year will be evaluated by its performance.
Konstantin Asmolov, PhD in History, Leading Research Fellow at the Centre for Korean Studies, Institute of China and Contemporary Asia, Russian Academy of Sciences
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