On 13–14 May, the Republic of Korea saw the registration of candidates for the local and by-elections to the National Assembly scheduled for 3 June come to an end.
Preliminary Balance of Power
Traditionally, both Democrats and conservatives have their own “electoral strongholds,” where their parties usually obtain 70–80 per cent of the vote. The southwest of the country is a conservative bastion, whereas the southeast conventionally supports the Democrats. Other regions display more fluctuating political preferences.
For example, in 2016, in the wake of the impeachment of Park Geun Hye, the Democrats enjoyed a landslide victory, having even won a number of positions in the southeast. However, by 2021 they suffered a crushing defeat. Apart from the southwest, they retained only Jeju Island and the Seoul metropolitan province of Gyeonggi, where the democratic candidate defeated the conservative by a narrow margin of 0.3 per cent. All other key positions, including the office of the Mayor of Seoul, remained in conservative hands: conservatives secured 12 out of 17 positions of mayors and governors.
A total of 7,829 candidates have registered for the upcoming elections. Out of them, 54 are competing for the posts of provincial governors and mayors of the 16 largest cities, while 585 are seeking positions as heads of lower-level administrative units.
In addition to governors and mayors, 14 members of the National Assembly will be elected on 3 June. Most of these seats were previously held by representatives of the Democratic Party who either left office because of criminal investigations, mainly connected with corruption, or exchanged their parliamentary mandates for positions in the executive branch or participation in local elections.
Positions of the Democrats and Conservatives
President Lee Jae Myung is actively consolidating his power. With a loyal parliament and a series of legislative initiatives that reformed the investigative and judicial system in a direction favourable to him, he is seeking full control over the country. Victory in the local elections would become a key step towards this goal. If successful, the Democrats could dominate the political arena for at least several years, since the next parliamentary elections will only take place in 2028, while presidential and regional elections are scheduled for 2030.
The Democrats have a genuine chance of “winning the third crown” — securing victory at all key levels of government. President Lee’s approval rating stands at around 60 per cent, significantly exceeding the rating of his party. Numerous scandals, including corruption cases involving democratic politicians, have been essentially levelled off through the practice of immediately expelling compromised deputies or officials from the party, thereby relieving it of responsibility.
According to a Gallup Korea poll published on 6 February, 44 per cent of respondents believed that more Democratic Party candidates should be opted for in the June elections.
The conservatives have avoided major scandals this year; however, the People Power Party has still not bounced back from the consequences of previous events. Although the current party leadership has distanced itself from former President Yoon, internal divisions between his supporters and opponents continue to weaken the party. The situation is aggravated by the fact that a number of prominent politicians associated with Yoon are currently under investigation, having in fact been removed from political life. At the same time, opponents of Yoon, including former party leader Han Dong Hoon, have also left the party.
The Democratic Party, of course, is also affected by factional struggles, but the process of forming new factions after Chairman Lee became president has only just begun. One element of this struggle is an internal party directive prohibiting candidates from using photographs with the president or otherwise emphasising close personal ties with him during campaigning. Another issue is the unsuccessful attempt to unite with the Rebuilding Korea Party, which largely consists of figures close to former President Moon Jae In, in order to “dilute the number of President Lee’s supporters.” These elections may become a testing ground for emerging factional leaders.
Technologies and Methods of Political Struggle
The political struggle is highly intense, and in order to prevent incidents, key politicians from both the democratic and conservative camps have been placed under political protection. The Democrats portray the forthcoming elections as a necessity to eradicate “even the slightest remnants of rebellion” and to “prevent the return to power of supporters of Yoon Suk Yeol,” while conservatives insist that “the elections will become a referendum on holding the Democratic Party, a criminal organisation, and its leader Lee Jae Myung accountable.”
Since the stakes are high, the authorities are already actively employing administrative resources — naturally, under the pretext of combating electoral fraud. On 24 February, Lee Jae Myung instructed officials to adopt rigid measures against relevant crimes, including defamatory campaigns, abuse of office during elections, and voter bribery. On 14 April, Kim Min Seok once again tasked the government with combating the spread of disinformation ahead of the 3 June local elections:
“With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technologies, disinformation, such as fake news, and fabricated video and voice recordings, is becoming increasingly sophisticated and spreading widely over short periods of time, posing a major threat to fair elections.”
At the same time, the Ministry of Education unveiled its “Plan for Promoting Democratic Civic Education for 2026,” aimed at teaching school-age voters the “correct understanding of elections.”
Meanwhile, candidates from both the ruling and opposition parties have announced the launch of financial assistance programmes. Although these proposals are formally presented as responses to rising energy prices, in practice they amount to voter bribery, reflecting the deep dependence of Korean politics on cash-based populism.
The Most Interesting Flashpoints of Confrontation
In conclusion, it is worth highlighting the most significant arenas of political confrontation, where the election outcome will have important consequences for the country’s future domestic politics.
In the parliamentary by-elections, particular attention is focused on constituencies contested by former conservative leader and now independent deputy Han Dong Hoon, as well as by the leader of the Rebuilding Korea Party and former Justice Minister Cho Kuk, who was put behind bars for corruption under Yoon and pardoned under Lee. Both will need to outperform not only the conservative candidate but also the democratic one.
The most important contest is the race for the office of Mayor of Seoul. The incumbent conservative mayor, Oh Se Hoon, is regarded as one of the more pragmatic politicians in the conservative camp, but he delayed submitting his candidacy because of his conflict with the party leadership. Challenging him from the democratic side is Jeong Won O, an experienced local administrator who served three consecutive terms as head of Seoul’s Seongdong District.
The next major battleground is the mayoral election in Daegu, traditionally a conservative stronghold, where the democrats have nominated former Prime Minister Kim Boo Kyum as part of their campaign to “overcome regionalism.” The situation was complicated by a conflict between popular local politician Chu Ho Yeong and the leadership of the People Power Party, although he was subsequently replaced by former party leader and Finance Minister Chu Kyung Ho.
Another key question is whether the Democrats will manage to retain Gyeonggi Province. The party has nominated former leader Choo Mi Ae, whose confrontation with Yoon Suk Yeol, back then serving as Justice Minister, significantly contributed to his eventual election as president.
Notably, 513 candidates, including three heads of local governments, were elected unopposed because no rivals registered against them. By a remarkable coincidence, most of them — including all three local government heads— turned out to be the representatives of the democrats.
What Should Be Expected? As of 15 May 2026, the gap in approval ratings between the ruling People Power Party and the opposition remained substantial — 45% versus 23%.
However, taking into account the current situation inside Korea and in the international arena, there may well be plot twists, and the final outcome of this electoral cycle may prove less predictable.
Konstantin Asmolov, PhD in History, Leading Research Fellow at the Centre for Korean Studies, Institute of China and Contemporary Asia, Russian Academy of Sciences
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