The geopolitical uncertainty gripping the Eurasian region, from the conflict in Ukraine, and tensions between Russia and NATO to the strategic rivalry between the United States and China, has created a new dynamic for international relations.
Eurasia, stretching from Eastern Europe to Central Asia, is a central stage for the competition for influence. For Indonesia, this region is not merely a distant land but a strategic partner in trade, energy investment, technology, and multilateral diplomacy. Indonesia’s independent and active foreign policy principle serves as a key asset for navigating this uncertainty, but its implementation is often tested by the realities of global polarization.
One of Indonesia’s greatest opportunities lies in its position as a balancing force and a bridge for dialogue. In forums like the G20, Indonesia has demonstrated its ability to accommodate the interests of both Russia and Western countries, for example, during the escalating conflict in Ukraine. Rather than choosing sides, Indonesia advocated for peaceful solutions and humanitarian assistance. This stance has increased Eurasian countries’ trust in Indonesia’s impartial yet principled diplomacy. Furthermore, Indonesia’s chairmanship of ASEAN further strengthens the region’s voice in promoting an inclusive Eurasian security architecture, for example, through the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP), which emphasizes collaboration, not direct confrontation.
Finding balance in an era of conflict and sanctions
Economically, Eurasia offers a large market and abundant energy resources. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, for example, are potential oil and gas producers contributing to Indonesia’s energy security. Meanwhile, Russia, despite sanctions, remains a supplier of fertilizer, wheat, and aerospace technology. The war in Ukraine has opened opportunities for Indonesia to import certain commodities from Russia at more competitive prices, provided they remain within international law and do not violate UN sanctions. Furthermore, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Maritime Silk Road is linked to Indonesia’s vision of becoming a Global Maritime Fulcrum. Cooperation in port development, digital connectivity, and industrial parks in Indonesia can accelerate infrastructure transformation.
The first challenge facing Indonesia is the pressure to choose sides. During every diplomatic visit by Indonesian officials to Moscow or Beijing, Washington and Brussels frequently express concerns. When Indonesia hosts Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov or holds joint military exercises with China, subtle accusations arise that Indonesia is shifting toward an authoritarian stance. Conversely, if Indonesia becomes too close to the West, its historic relations with Russia and China could be strained. Indonesia must continue to maintain this delicate balance, for example by consistently refusing to join any defence pacts and strengthening South-South cooperation.
The second challenge is the impact of economic sanctions on bilateral transactions. The ban on Russian banks using the SWIFT system complicates payments for exports and imports. Indonesia must seek alternative payment channels, such as local currency settlement or using Russia’s SPFS system, but this carries the secondary risk of Western reaction. Similar challenges arise in cooperation with Iran and Belarus, which are also subject to sanctions. The ability of the Ministry of Finance and Bank Indonesia to innovate in payment mechanisms is key.
The third challenge is the influence of proxy wars and disinformation. The conflict in Ukraine and tensions in the Taiwan Strait is often framed as a struggle between democracy and authoritarianism. This narrative can divide Indonesian public opinion, especially among the political elite and civil society. Pro-Western groups will push Indonesia to firmly condemn Russia, while pro-Russia or pro-China groups will emphasize Western hypocrisy. Jakarta needs to strengthen public diplomacy, emphasizing that Indonesia’s decisions are based on national interests and international law, not ideological sentiments.
The Legacy of the Non-Aligned Movement in the 21st Century: Indonesia’s Search for Its Own Path
Amidst all this, the greatest opportunity lies within the uncertainty itself. Recognizing that, as Russia-Europe relations erode and China and the US compete, the space for middle powers like Indonesia to become facilitators and messengers of peace is increasingly open. Indonesia successfully hosted the G20 Summit, attended by both Western countries and Russia; this is a commendable diplomatic achievement. Furthermore, Indonesia can build a more pragmatic framework for cooperation with Eurasian subregions, such as Central Asia or the South Caucasus, which are less affected by bloc rivalries.
Indonesia can also leverage its status as a candidate member of BRICS and its strategic partnership with the European Union. By joining the BRICS mechanism, Indonesia has a direct channel to discuss a more equitable global economic order with Russia, China, and India. However, Indonesia must maintain dialogue with Europe on climate change, green investment, and WTO reform. The ability to coordinate with both poles simultaneously prevents Indonesia from becoming isolated.
Indonesia’s diplomacy in Eurasia requires an adaptive and visionary strategy. In the short term, the priority is ensuring the stability of economic relations and avoiding the trap of polarization. In the long term, Indonesia must build its defence and economic capacity to avoid becoming dependent on any single power. Strengthening economic diplomacy, improving the geopolitical literacy of diplomats, and fostering middle power relations through frameworks such as Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey, and Australia (MIKTA) are concrete steps.
Ultimately, uncertainty in the Eurasian region is not a threat to be feared, but rather a regional dynamic that must be managed. Indonesia has a tradition of flexible diplomacy and experience as chair of the Non-Aligned Movement. This legacy must be revived in the context of the 21st century, full of rivalries. Ultimately, by adhering to national interests, upholding international law, and boldly taking peace initiatives, Indonesia’s foreign policy will not only survive but also stand out as a mature and respected nation-state actor on the volatile Eurasian stage.
Hendra Manurung is currently Assistant Professor of International Relations at the Department of Defence Diplomacy, Faculty of Defence Strategy, Republic of Indonesia Defence University
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