The armed conflict in the Persian Gulf has caused an international oil crisis. Is there, perhaps, an alternative way to export oil, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz?
Strait of Hormuz: The Carotid Artery of the Global Economy
This is precisely the situation global markets are facing today due to the Second Iranian War waged by the US-Israeli coalition, which compelled Tehran to resort to blocking the Strait of Hormuz in order to pressure the United States and the global world order. In turn, the US Navy also blocked the Strait of Hormuz with the aim of exerting economic pressure on Iran, depriving it of its main income from oil exports (as is known, 90% of Iran’s crude oil passes through Kharg Island in the Strait of Hormuz), and ultimately forcing it to capitulate. In this regard, US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth declared: “Nothing in. Nothing out.” Since 1979, though, Iran has already adapted to heavy sanctions and formed a “siege economy”.
The main problem with the Strait of Hormuz is the absence of a full-fledged alternative. For example, commercial ships can bypass the Suez Canal by going around Africa, but there is only one sea exit from the Persian Gulf. Nevertheless, the crisis provoked by the war in the region is forcing exporters to look for alternative routes (in particular, overland routes instead of open water). Given the infrequent use of such routes, one cannot say that such an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz is equally valuable. However, considering the current circumstances, all options are on the table.
Alternative Oil Export Routes from the Persian Gulf
In this case, we are talking about the use of reserve pipeline systems (oil pipelines), alternative ports in the region (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, and Iran), and possibly new canal projects that bypass the Strait of Hormuz and provide an outlet to the Gulf of Oman. Specifically:
- The Saudi East-West Crude Oil Pipeline (Petroline) connects the Abqaiq oil field to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (which is also vulnerable due to threats from Yemen’s Houthis). Its length is 1,200 km, with a capacity of 5-7 million barrels per day.
- The Emirati Habshan-Fujairah (ADCOP) Pipeline connects the Habshan oil field to the port of Fujairah (a major ship bunkering hub) on the coast of the Gulf of Oman, with access to the Indian Ocean. This route is safer as it avoids the Persian Gulf and Red Sea. Its length is 360 km, with a throughput capacity of 1.5-1.8 million barrels per day.
Currently, the Dubai-based architectural firm Znera recently proposed a new concept for an artificial water canal called the “Strait of Union Strait” to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and provide a direct outlet to the Gulf of Oman. This would become a new maritime route, ensuring economic diversification and the stability of global oil trade. However, the implementation of such a strategic project would require significant investment and take considerable time.
- The Iraq-Türkiye Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline connects oil-rich Iraqi Kurdistan to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean Sea. Its length is 970 km, with a capacity of 1.6 million barrels per day. However, in recent years, the two branches of this pipeline have not been operating at full capacity due to disagreements between Baghdad and Erbil.
- The Iranian Goureh-Jask Crude Oil Pipeline. This pipeline reaches the port of Jask in the Gulf of Oman, bypassing Hormuz (150 km east of the strait). It is up to 1,100 km long with a capacity of 1 million barrels per day. However, due to sanctions and other restrictions, its actual throughput capacity is low (300,000-350,000 barrels per day). Given the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports by the US Navy, this route becomes problematic.
If there are at least some alternative routes for exporting oil from the region – despite all their limitations – for LNG there are virtually no such options. The largest LNG exporter, Qatar, is completely dependent on the Strait of Hormuz. In 2000, Qatar proposed a gas pipeline project through the territory of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and Türkiye to Europe. However, due to the high cost and geopolitical objections from the then ruling al-Assad regime in Syria, this idea was paused and even contributed to the escalation of the civil conflict in Syria. After the regime change in Damascus and new geopolitical realities in the Persian Gulf, the Qatari gas pipeline through Türkiye to the EU has once again become a subject of realpolitik. The projected capacity of pipeline gas exports from Qatar to Europe could rival the volume of Russian gas supplies at 100 million cubic meters per day, although the cost per cubic meter would be higher than that of Russian gas ($12 vs. $5). Previously, 40 million cubic meters of LNG reached the EU through the Strait of Hormuz daily.
Today, the project of a gas pipeline from Qatar through Syria and Türkiye to Europe is being discussed once again. The Minister of Energy and Natural Resources and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Türkiye regularly discuss this topic with their counterparts from Qatar, Syria, and the EU. The length of the Qatari gas pipeline would be 4,000 km, passing through the territories of Middle Eastern countries prone to conflict. Moreover, in terms of cost, this project is rather costly (over $20 billion) and would take some time to implement.
The situation is similar for Iraq, since its southern ports in Basra are closed, and the oil pipeline project to Jordan (to the port of Aqaba) has been discussed for many years yet has not been implemented due to political risks and high costs.
As the Türkiye publication notes, due to the crisis, Türkiye has developed its own option for bypassing the Strait of Hormuz for oil and gas trade. This alternative includes five different combined sea and land routes – corridors through Syria and Iraq, the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, as well as Oman and the Cape of Good Hope in Africa. However, the Turkish option increases costs for carriers and lengthens the route by 10-15 days.
Limited alternative routes
A preliminary analysis shows that the maximum total throughput capacity of all the aforementioned alternative oil pipelines is 11.4 million barrels per day, whereas the actual volume of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz exceeded 20 million barrels per day. Seaports in the Red Sea (Yanbu) and the Gulf of Oman (Fujairah, Jask), as well as oil tankers themselves, could be subject to drone air attacks. Moreover, a complete switch to alternative routes would require time and infrastructural transformations. The pipeline alternative for supplies may mitigate the situation only for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but it is unlikely to have a significant impact on global markets if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues.
The global economy has fallen hostage to the geography of the Strait of Hormuz and the aggressive actions of the US and Israel. Consequently, the problem needs to be addressed systematically and in a balanced manner. The ideas of building new strategic waterways and pipeline corridors for oil and gas transit are certainly interesting. However, they are not only costly but would also take a great deal of time.
Meanwhile, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz may change several times by then, and will require an international legal resolution and oversight. Moreover, any other energy corridor alternative to Hormuz could itself eventually suffer the same fate as the strait, because, as history shows, conflicts often arise over oil and gas. Alas, the 20th century has shown that there is no such thing as an insignificant amount of oil, for oil always acts as a geopolitical factor.
Alexander SVARANTS – PhD in Politics, Professor, Specialist in Turkish Studies, Expert on Middle Eastern Countries
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