In suppressing the military uprising in Benin, the primary role belonged to its closest neighbour, Nigeria. In response to President Patrice Talon’s request for military support, Nigeria deployed its air force units and part of its ground forces.
Abuja’s Motives in the Situation in Benin
Abuja’s prompt reaction to the neighbouring state’s request should be attributed to the fact that it is no less necessary for Nigeria per se to protect its own territorial integrity. The fact is that Nigeria has recently seen the increase in terrorists and mobsters encroaching upon the western states of Nigeria from the territory of northern Benin. Their goals are robbery and kidnapping for ransom.
Just last October, according to the Nigerian Vanguard, jihadists from the Al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist group “The Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin” (JNIM) crossed the border from the territory of Benin and carried out their first attack on Nigerian locals. The incident created the threat of a new front in the fight against terrorism in northwestern Nigeria.
Notably, the newspaper continues, Nigeria’s initiative to support Benin, a former French colony, coincided with the strengthening of security ties between Paris and Abuja. The Qatari newspaper Al Jazeera believes that this is because Paris, recently facing growing anti-French sentiment in West Africa, is taking measures to draw closer to Nigeria to protect French business interests while avoiding overt display of its activities in the region.
On the other hand, as France 24 pinpoints, by conducting this military operation, Nigeria pursued the goal of reaffirming its status as the leading regional power, which had wavered in recent years. This was partly related to the fact that in 2023, following a military coup in neighbouring Niger, the new leaders rejected the demand from Nigeria, as the chairman of ECOWAS, the “Giant of Africa,” to restore law and order in the country and release the ousted President Mohamed Bazoum.
Paris Behind the Scenes of the Events in Benin
Regarding the former metropolis, according to Africa News, without delving into details, the Élysée Palace stated on December 9 that President Macron, during the suppression of the military mutiny in Benin, “led a coordination effort” through negotiating with the President of Benin and representatives of ECOWAS.
It should be underlined that ECOWAS, where Nigeria plays a decisive role, immediately condemned the attempted coup in Benin. It called the actions of the rebel soldiers “unconstitutional” and undermining “the will of the Beninese people.” Furthermore, in accordance with the provisions of the 1999 Protocol on Conflict Resolution and the Maintenance of Peace and Security, the ECOWAS Commission decided to deploy regional forces, comprising military units from Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone, to restore constitutional order in Benin.
However, in reality, it was only units from Côte d’Ivoire who participated in the operation to neutralise the insurgents, apart from those from Nigeria. According to the American newspaper The Defense Post, Ivorian troops were deployed by France after the failure of the attempted coup, to conduct mop-up operations against the remaining rebels.
Measures by the Ruling Regime to Restore Its Influence
Having suppressed the coup attempt with the help of Nigeria and France, the ruling regime got down to bouncing back and restoring its shaken positions. For this purpose, on January 11, a month after the failed coup attempt and three months prior to the presidential elections scheduled for April this year, the country held regular parliamentary and local government elections.
As many analysts predicted, the ruling coalition of President Patrice Talon further strengthened its political positions as a result.
According to the electoral commission, five parties participated in the elections, with a voter turnout of about 37 percent. Only the “Progressive Union for Renewal” and the “Republican Bloc,” which stand by President Patrice Talon, crossed the electoral threshold, getting hold of all the 109 seats in the parliament. The former received 60 seats, the latter 49.
Despite the main opposition Democratic Party, which used to hold 28 parliamentary seats based on the results of the previous elections, garnering about 16 percent of the vote, it did not receive a single seat in the parliament. This is because, according to the new electoral law, each party must obtain at least 20 percent of the votes in each of the 24 electoral districts. In the case of the Democrats, the party failed to overcome the 20 percent barrier in several districts.
Patrice Talon’s New Constitutional Reform
According to the Associated Press, the ruling elite of Benin intends to further strengthen its grip on power. Ahead of the presidential elections in April 2026, the Beninese parliament approved a constitutional reform back in November 2025. The reform provides for an increase in the term of office for the president and deputies from five to seven years but, as it was before, constrains the president to two terms in power.
The establishment of an upper house of the National Assembly in the form of a Senate is also expected. It will consist of 25 to 30 members, including former heads of state and other persons appointed by the president. Patrice Talon’s entry into this body after a 10-year tenure in power would allow him to continue influencing processes in the country. The reform is supposed to be given the green light by the Constitutional Court and to come into force after the April presidential elections.
As for now, Finance Minister Romuald Wadagni, a close associate of Patrice Talon, seems to be the main contender for the office, as noted by the American portal NPR. This is because the principal candidate from the ranks of the opposition, Renaud Agbodjo, was rejected by the electoral commission on the grounds that he did not obtain the required 20% of votes in a number of constituencies.
According to NPR, his only opponent in the upcoming elections will be the moderate opposition figure Paul Hounkpè from the “Forces Cauris pour un Bénin Emergent” (FCBE) party, which has signed a number of agreements with parties from the ruling bloc.
All in all, when assessing the political situation unfolding in Benin today, analytical circles assume that the low voter turnout observed in elections over the past decade, coupled with the procedural deprivation of the opposition “Democratic Party” of the opportunity to defend in government bodies the interests of the part of society it represents, raises serious doubts about the “inclusiveness” of Benin’s political system formed in recent years. This could spark new social upheavals in the country.
Victor Goncharov, African affairs expert, PhD in Economics
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