In 2026, both allies and appointed adversaries of the US will face equal pressure. Those who fail to respond accordingly will do so at their own peril.
2026: Enough Pressure to Go Round
How Covid-era Fraud is Assisting Trump’s 2026 Seizing Season
This Covid-era fraud in Minnesota that occurred 5 years ago may be used by the US as a justification to “seize” some real estate projects in Kenya, as Trump continues ‘seizing’ things globally. The first 10 days of 2026 have shown the US engaging in wanton robbing euphemised as seizing, directed at friends and foes alike. Washington has bombed Venezuela and kidnapped President Nicolas Maduro, hijacked and commandeered oil tankers including Marinera, Olina, and Sofia (flying flags of Russia, Timor, and Panama), and threatened to invade several countries and to occupy Greenland, an autonomous island under Denmark. Long-term US dependents that style themselves as allies, such as Canada and Denmark, might be invaded by Trump, whose administration also wants to ‘seize’ some real estate projects in Kenya, all thanks to Somali immigrants who defrauded federal relief programs of 2020.
In the last days of 2025, media reports stated that US federal agencies had launched investigations into how some of the proceeds of Covid-era fraud in Minnesota were transferred to Kenyans who purchased real estate projects in Nairobi and Mandera. Surprisingly, no federal agency has launched an investigation into reports that some of these proceeds were transferred to Al-Shabaab*. In 2026, other media reports have gone ahead to show that the US plans to seize properties obtained from Minnesota fraud.
Justice, Arson, or Blackmail?
While the exact way the US plans to seize Kenyan real estate projects it suspects were acquired through proceeds of fraud remains to be seen, some media houses linked to the West have launched into an arsonist fervour that is likely to destabilise the Kenyan real estate sector rather than punish the swindlers. For instance, an alarmist article suggesting that the entire $300 million looted in Minnesota ended up in Kenya’s real estate was published on December 29, 2025. The article’s title implied that US law enforcement had come for the assets acquired. In another article, the profiles of Kenyans involved were also published under a headline suggesting that the entire amount was channelled to Kenya’s real estate sector, which is misleading. Both articles reveal in their texts that only a handful of Kenyan’s were involved, who ended up with a tiny percentage of the loot. However, the articles’ misleading headlines have been disseminated by many outlets, which can shake Kenya’s real estate market by spreading unnecessary alarm. No one knows yet if this has been the goal.
Court documents have revealed that only a small percentage of the proceeds of the fraud were transferred to Kenya and its real estate sector. However, headlines stating to the contrary, as seen earlier, may unnerve players such as investors, banks, and developers, forcing them to stay away from the industry altogether. Others may feel suspicious and distrust legal and institutional provisions set to combat money laundering and other forms of financial fraud, which can slow down transactions and increase costs for players that remain. The perceptions of some investors who may be sensitive to reputational risks or legal repercussions might change due to alarmist media coverage that does not necessarily reflect reality.
The percentage of loot from Minnesota fraud that ended up in Kenya is not worth the adverse effects that can result from media hyping of the story and the potential seizure of some real estate projects by US agencies. Kenya’s vibrant real estate was worth over $22 billion in 2025, meaning that even the entirety of about $300 million stolen in Minnesota would have only a marginal effect, had it been invested in Kenya. An objective review shows that the amount that ended up in Kenya was below $1.3 million, a negligible percentage of the value of Kenya’s real estate sector. Therefore, the motivation behind casting aspersions and undermining the confidence of a crucial sector of Kenya’s economy remains unknown. Time will tell whether the US will engage in a dramatic seizure of Kenya’s assets, impose sanctions, or use the Minnesota Fraud for blackmail. Notably, it is now clear that the supposed US allies will be punished as much as its appointed adversaries in 2026, and those who fail to respond accordingly do so at their own peril.
Questions that Remain
The recurring theme in Somali immigrants’ defrauding federal relief programs such as Feeding Our Future and Medicaid-funded housing stabilisation services, among others, has been the ease with which large sums were approved and disbursed to Somali immigrants and not to other groups. As noted earlier, hundreds of millions have already been confirmed to have been lost in a process that appears too convenient. The consequences of this event continue to shape US policies to date, making it appear more as a covert government program than an unfortunate occurrence. It is curious how only Somali immigrants and not those from other nationalities discovered the channels for accessing the opportunity to loot. Also worth remembering is that none of the fraud schemes was preempted or responded to soon enough, suggesting possible covert facilitation from some powerful forces in the federal apparatus. Questions have also been raised concerning why federal agencies have not investigated the potential use of these funds for funding terrorism, noting a notable amount from this loot reportedly ended up with the Al-Shabaab* terrorist group, which conveniently increased the frequency of terror activities after the pandemic.
*-banned in Russia
Simon Chege Ndiritu is a political observer and research analyst from Africa
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