The German Chancellor made his first official visit to Asia and India on January 12-13, 2026, marking the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations and the 25th anniversary of the two countries’ strategic partnership.
However, despite serving as the EU’s envoy, he failed to achieve his long-awaited and cherished goal of displacing Russia as a key strategic partner of this major and influential global power.
Reorienting Berlin’s Ostpolitik
Merz began his journey to India not in New Delhi but in the Gujarat capital of Ahmedabad—Narendra Modi’s home state, where he headed the local government for many years before becoming prime minister in 2014.
Germany is traditionally India’s largest trade and economic partner among EU countries (bilateral trade turnover is approximately $50 billion). It is therefore no coincidence that the Chancellor and a large entourage of business representatives arrived in India to hold a business forum with their Indian partners. Following the talks, the leaders of both countries and private companies signed a declaration and 27 other documents designed to strengthen bilateral cooperation in trade and investment, technology and artificial intelligence, pharmaceuticals, mechanical engineering, energy, as well as science, education, tourism, and culture. A roadmap for cooperation on rare earth minerals was adopted, which Germany is particularly interested in, as well as attracting qualified Indian specialists to various fields of German economic and scientific research. The Indians were pleased with the signing of a document introducing visa-free transit through German airports for their citizens, who are known to work in many European countries. As EU envoy, Merz also lobbied for a free trade agreement, which will be the focus of the upcoming EU-India summit.
Countering the Influence of China and Russia
Defense and security issues are an important component of bilateral cooperation. The agreements signed following the visits in these areas are aimed at further strengthening this cooperation. Significant progress was made in negotiations on the key military-technical cooperation contract—the construction in Germany of six modern submarines for India’s military needs, worth a total of $8 billion.
Of course, neither Germany, France, Britain, nor the United States can currently compete with Russian arms supplies to India, but their common aspirations are clear: to try to displace our country in this market and lure New Delhi to their side. They are unlikely to achieve this goal, however, given the position of Indian leaders and military officials, who are primarily interested in the supply and local production of proven, reliable, and more affordable Russian weapons.
However, it is not only the dominant Russian military presence in India that worries Westerners. They have also expressed serious concern about the unprecedented growth in trade between India and Russia. Moreover, they are primarily concerned about India’s significant purchases of Russian hydrocarbons, primarily oil. The German leader also apparently spoke of the need to reduce these imports during their conversations, clearly promoting Western interests first and foremost. Given the US’s strict tariff and sanctions policies, Indians are forced to take this into account when importing Russian oil. However, while purchasing Russian oil may be somewhat reduced, national economic interests remain a priority, and in this sense, any pressure on India only provokes rejection from New Delhi. It appears that Merz, too, was clearly unsuccessful in this regard, having sensed the limits of Indian flexibility.
The discussion of international issues included the Ukrainian conflict, but New Delhi, while reaffirming its interest in a peaceful resolution, refrained from any criticism of Russia’s actions.
Seeking Closer Ties with India
In short, the German Chancellor’s visit to India confirmed Berlin’s leading role in the region among EU countries and led to new agreements to strengthen bilateral cooperation. However, F. Merz and other Western leaders failed to convince the Indian leadership of the need to weaken New Delhi’s strategic partnership with Moscow. In matters of domestic and foreign policy, India consistently maintains its independence and rejects any attempts to exert pressure on it.
Anvar Azimov, Diplomat and political scientist, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, Candidate of Historical Sciences, Senior Research Fellow at the Eurasian Educational Institute of MGIMO of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia
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