In the shifting global world order and the transfer of world power from the Western bloc to the Eastern bloc, Pakistan and Russia are exploring new opportunities to strengthen their alliance.
Shifting Global Power and the Reorientation of Alliances
Regional and global dynamics pushed both countries closer to strengthening their alliances. The Russia-Ukraine conflict played a critical role in enhancing the bilateral relations between Islamabad and Moscow, as the latter needed new allies to expand its diplomatic outreach. Pakistan has long been a close ally of the United States. However, the latter repeatedly shifted its tilt towards other regional powers once its regional interests changed. On the other hand, Russia is globally regarded as a reliable ally. Therefore, Pakistan recently announced its pivot to the East to minimize its dependence on the United States. This new policy shift encouraged Islamabad to fortify its relations with Moscow.
Evolution of Pakistan–Russia Relations: From Cold War to Strategic Cooperation
Despite a bitter past, both countries have established strong relations in agriculture, energy, defense, and the counter-terrorism sector. Both nations can yield economic benefits from their mutual geopolitical and strategic interests. This is substantiated by the launch of the first Asian Forum for Pak-Russia strategic dialogue for promoting Eurasia’s regional cooperation and addressing regional unconventional security challenges. The bilateral relations between the two sides were established on May 1, 1948, when the officials from Russia and Pakistan signed an agreement in New York. This led to the opening of embassies in Moscow and Karachi. However, historically, these bilateral relations saw many ups and downs.
The Soviet Union’s cooperation in constructing the Pakistan Steel Mills in Karachi in 1973 is one of the prime examples of strong bilateral relations between the two sides. The Soviet Union also assisted Islamabad in the establishment of Oil and Gas Development Cooperation (OGDC) — also known as the OGDCL — and also assisted the country in the thermal energy sector, especially by collaborating in the construction of the Guddu Thermal Power Plant. Pakistan has also been participating in NATO-Russia Council training sessions for training officials from Central Asia and Afghanistan. In addition, both sides are also cooperating in the drug control sector. Currently, a huge number of Pakistani students are studying in Russia. Moscow also supported Pakistan’s inclusion in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2011.
In 2014, Pakistan and Russia also started joint defense cooperation, which allows for arms sales, joint military exercises, and military intelligence exchange, leading to high-level military ties between the two sides. Mutual regional interests of the two sides have led to diplomatic consultations, intelligence sharing, and limited defense cooperation. Since 2016, both sides have participated in annual Druzha military exercises and joint naval exercises like the Arabian Monsoon.
Future Prospects, Economic Cooperation, and Regional Stability
Geographically, the two sides are natural allies for each other. Russia can access the Indian Ocean through Pakistan’s deep-sea ports. Similarly, Pakistan can reach Central Asian and European markets. A peaceful and stable Afghanistan is in the interest of both nations. Projects like TAPI and CASA-1000 can only be materialized through stability in Afghanistan. Therefore, both sides have clear and consistent positions on the Afghan issue. However, despite cooperation in different sectors, bilateral relations between Islamabad and Moscow remain limited. In the last few years, bilateral trade between the two sides has seen a slight increase, but it still fails to meet Russia’s capacity and fulfil Pakistan’s needs. This is because of Pakistan’s heavy economic reliance on Western financial institutions.
Pakistan needs to end its dependence on these institutions for loans and financial aid to pursue an independent foreign policy. As per the Pakistan Business Council report, the country’s untapped export potential, in different sectors, in Russia is around $2.8 billion. Pakistan is also facing a severe energy crisis, and the country’s energy demand is increasing annually at a rate of more than 8 percent. Meanwhile, Russia is the second-largest global exporter of natural gas and the third-largest oil-producing country. This provides the two countries with an opportunity to collaborate in this sector as well.
It is time for the two countries to explore novel opportunities for cooperation and collaboration. Pakistan’s expected membership of the BRICS can also enhance this bilateral alliance. Moreover, regional organizations like the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) can also play a significant role in strengthening this partnership. The two sides need to enhance their economic cooperation, which would lead to genuine and lasting ties between Russia and Pakistan. President Putin’s resolve to expand Russia’s diplomatic outreach throughout the world would indeed lead to growing relations between Islamabad and Moscow. This partnership will not only be beneficial for the two countries but also contribute to regional peace and stability. It will also contribute to a further decline in the US global hegemony.
Аbbas Hashemite is a political observer and research analyst for regional and global geopolitical issues. He is currently working as an independent researcher and journalist
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