The latest APEC Summit, which took place in Gyeongju, South Korea, from October 31 to November 1, was marked by a number of notable events that were indirectly or in no way correlated with the agenda of this event. In particular, the format of Taiwan’s participation in APEC has become a significant challenge to attempts to reduce tensions between two world powers.
Taiwan on the international stage
Firstly, from the PRC’s perspective, no such problem exists at all, since Taiwan is an inalienable part of One China. However, this is a political declaration that does not correspond to Taiwan’s current de facto positioning in the international arena. This discrepancy explains the aforementioned problem in the global political space.
This issue arose in October 1971, when United Nations Resolution 2758 was adopted by a majority vote, including the USSR. In accordance with it, the seat in the UN and the Security Council, which until then had belonged to the Republic of China, i.e., Chiang Kai-shek’s government, was taken by a representative of the People’s Republic of China. Although the US representative voted against the resolution at the time, this event was part of a process of normalizing relations with Beijing, a process previously initiated by Washington, which culminated on January 1, 1979, in the establishment of US diplomatic relations with the PRC and severing relations with Taiwan.
This latter circumstance, however, did not mean that Washington abandoned its comprehensive support for Taiwan, including arms supplies. The justification for this continues to be a special law passed by Congress in April 1979 (the Taiwan Relations Act), as well as Reagan’s so-called Six Assurances, formulated in 1982.
A notable part of the efforts to counter Beijing’s desire to resolve the Taiwan issue has been the idea of its misinterpretation of Resolution 2758. References are made to the fact that the title and text of the said document mention nothing about Taiwan’s expulsion from the UN. Consequently, Beijing’s opponents conclude that Taipei remains a legitimate member of the UN and a de facto independent state, which has the right to participate in all other international platforms, both those affiliated with the UN and those independent from it.
This quasi-legal balancing act is completely unacceptable to Beijing. It serves as a justification for Beijing’s opponents to interfere in the Taiwan issue, which is of key importance for China. It should be noted that the PRC’s position vis-à-vis the island largely remains unchanged, especially in that Taiwan belongs to One China. As for Taiwan’s participation in various international organizations, everything depends on the forces in power in Taipei.
During the latter part of the Kuomintang’s rule (2008-2016), which respected the One China principle, Taiwan faced no obstacles in this regard. Naturally, it participated in various events as “Chinese Taipei.” However, things changed drastically when the Democratic Progressive Party came to power in 2016, which more or less openly advocates for Taiwan’s autonomous statehood.
We once again note that a possible return to power of the Kuomintang is by no means ideal for Beijing. Since the time of its founder, Sun Yat-sen, the Kuomintang has particularly respected the United States and, above all, the country’s political system. During the Kuomintang’s rule, the purchase of American weapons continued. The party’s new leader, Cheng Li-wun, also intends to focus on “enhancing the island’s defense capabilities”.
However, this does not prevent the PRC from assessing her election as Kuomintang leader positively, speaking about her soon appearing on the mainland, and even being received at the highest level. After all, in reality one rarely gets to choose between bad and good.
This is the significant background of an incident that, at first glance, seemed trivial and minor and that occurred during a routine international event. It is all the more worthy of attention because next year the next APEC Summit will be held in China’s Shenzhen, and it will be interesting to observe how (or if at all) the official delegation from Taiwan will participate in it.
Japan’s growing interest in Taiwan
What could this mean for Russia’s policy in the region? New Eastern Outlook has noted more than once that the prospect of Japan replacing the current role of the US in the Taiwan issue is clear. It is most likely not an imminent prospect, but a distinct one nonetheless. This is a concerning trend, since its practical implementation would almost certainly give the issue a qualitatively new character.
The current competition between the two leading global players, the US and China, is short-lived phenomenon by the standards of history. Without significant damage to their own national interests, and within the framework of the increasingly relevant concept of neo-isolationism, the United States can afford to extricate itself from squabbles in a region located almost on the other side of the globe.
China and Japan, the two main players in the East Asian subregion, will have to coexist closely, and relations between the two over the last century and a half have not been positive. A symbol of Japan’s recent presence in Taiwan is the presidential palace in Taipei, a Baroque building designed at the beginning of the last century by Japanese architects. But what is much more important is that a positive memory of the “Japanese colonization” persists among both prominent politicians and the population of Taiwan.
Thus, Tokyo’s comprehensive presence in Taiwan today did not come from scratch. This is, again, met with a positive response in Taipei and, of course, a cautious one in Beijing. Another reason was the Japanese-Taiwanese contacts on the sidelines of the Gyeongju summit and, to put it mildly, the strange remark of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding the possible response of Japan, including the Japan Self-Defense Forces, to a possible escalation around Taiwan.
This is all happening not very far from Russia, whose main instrument of influence on the situation here should be not Sarmat, Poseidon hypersonics, or nuclear weapons, which are carelessly brandished by propagandists, but trusting relationships with leading players. And if such relations with China are already in place, then their establishment with Japan seems to be one of the important foreign policy tasks of the Russian Federation.
Russian-Japanese relations, starting from the middle of the 19th century and up to August 1945, can be described as mostly neutral and positive. With the exception of the 1904-05 war, which was largely due to the extremely unsuccessful policy of the tsar’s court, as well as the border conflicts of 1938-1939. Let us also not forget about the rarely mentioned, but almost fateful achievement of Soviet diplomacy on the eve of the Great Patriotic War, which was the conclusion of the Neutrality Pact between the USSR and Japan in April of 1941.
Today, Russia can build constructive relations with both of its most important neighbors in the East based on a good historical foundation.
Vladimir Terekhov, expert on Asia-Pacific region issues
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