After the end of the 4-day war between India and Pakistan with a fragile ceasefire, the threat of a new regional war looms large due to the recent terrorist attacks in Islamabad and New Delhi.
Escalating Terror Attacks Across South Asian Borders
Historical Tensions and Proxy Wars
Tensions between the two sides were already high due to a 4-day war in May this year, which started due to a terrorist attack in the Pahalgam district of Indian-administered Kashmir. The Indian government accused the Pakistani government of sponsoring this attack and targeted several Pakistani cities in its missile strikes on 7th May, 2025, under the name of Operation Sindoor. In retaliation, Pakistan also targeted several key Indian military bases in its Operation Bunyan al Marsoos. The war ended after 4 days with a fragile ceasefire brokered by US President Donald Trump. However, Indian officials repeatedly stated that their Operation Sindoor was ongoing and had entered its second phase. Both sides have been accusing each other of sponsoring proxy groups and terrorist organizations on either side of the border for years. Pakistan has termed all the terrorist organizations in the country as Fitna Al-Hindustan.
Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have already soured over the past few months due to the latter’s alleged support for the TTP. Pakistan holds that the interim Taliban government in Afghanistan provides a safe haven to terrorists belonging to TTP and the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA). Both terrorist outfits have conducted numerous terrorist attacks in Pakistan over the past two decades, making the country suffer huge economic and human losses. Pakistan has lost around 80000 lives due to these terrorist attacks. Islamabad repeatedly urged the interim Taliban government to take action against the TTP and BLA leadership hiding in Afghanistan. However, Kabul not only rejected all such appeals but also blamed Pakistan for weak internal security. This led to severe border clashes between the two sides in October. However, with the mediation of different Muslim nations, the two sides agreed to peace talks.
Three rounds of talks have been held between Pakistan and Afghanistan. However, the peace negotiations broke down after both sides reached an impasse over multiple contentious issues. Following the failure of the third round of talks, Khawaja Asif, the Defense Minister of Pakistan, stated that negotiations had collapsed, but the ceasefire would hold until there were no attacks from Afghan soil. Nonetheless, the recent terrorist attacks have further intensified the situation in South Asia. Under the “enemy of an enemy is a friend” notion, Afghanistan and India have enhanced their bilateral relations since their clashes with Pakistan. In October, the Taliban government’s Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi visited India. During the meeting between officials from both sides, India announced that it will reopen its embassy in Kabul. Muttaqi also stated that the two sides will gradually move towards normalization of bilateral relations.
The Growing Threat of a Multi-Front Conflict
Following the recent terrorist attacks in Pakistan, the Pakistani Foreign Minister stated, “We are in a state of war. Anyone who thinks that the Pakistan Army is fighting this war in the Afghan-Pakistan border region and the remote areas of Balochistan should take today’s suicide attack at the Islamabad district courts as a wake-up call: this is a war for all of Pakistan, in which the Pakistan Army is giving daily sacrifices and making the people feel secure.” Indeed, with the India-Afghan nexus, geostrategic threats for Pakistan have increased. Pakistan now faces a three-front war. The situation at the Pakistan-India border has been intense since May 2025. The failure of Pak-Afghan peace talks and the recent attacks have further increased regional and domestic threats for the country.
Pakistan has allegedly conducted a hypersonic missile test recently. Reports suggest that forces at the Pakistan-India border and Pakistan-Afghanistan border are on high alert. In addition, terrorist organizations and proxy groups have also intensified their activities throughout the region. Any miscalculation from any side in the coming hours or days could plunge the whole region into a severe existential crisis, as both Pakistan and India are nuclear powers. On the other hand, Pakistan would face a critical situation if a war broke out on its eastern or western border, as it would have to deal with all three rivals: Afghanistan, India, and proxy groups. It is high time for the leaders of all three South Asian countries to positively engage to defuse tensions. Otherwise, the world could see a nuclear war with endless detrimental consequences for the region and beyond.
Аbbas Hashemite is a political observer and research analyst for regional and global geopolitical issues. He is currently working as an independent researcher and journalist
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