Trump and Putin are meeting in Budapest—a summit heavy with symbolism, where far more is at stake than the fate of Ukraine. Behind the diplomatic choreography, the global balance of power is being renegotiated. Europe watches—but can it still shape the rules of the game?
What is unfolding in the Hungarian capital goes far beyond routine diplomacy. It is an attempt—perhaps a desperate one—to redraw the red lines of global security, outside any multilateral framework, in a face-to-face dialogue where empires whisper and others simply listen.
Two and a half hours. That was the length of the phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on 16 October—their eighth direct contact since Trump’s return to the White House. And already, the two men are preparing to meet again, this time in Budapest, at Trump’s initiative. Putin accepted immediately.
The symbolism is striking
For the first time in years, the Russian president will set foot in a European Union and NATO capital: one that discreetly distances itself from Brussels’ orthodoxy.
For Viktor Orbán, it is a masterstroke of diplomacy: hosting two of the world’s most powerful leaders and placing Budapest at the centre of the global chessboard.
For Putin, it marks a return to Europe without surrender.
For Trump, another move in his ongoing attempt to reshape the international order on his own terms.
The timing is anything but coincidental. The marathon phone call took place on the eve of Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Washington. While Kyiv pleads for more weapons, Washington and Moscow are already preparing their next handshake.
Both sides described the conversation as “very productive”.
But behind that polite phrasing lies a perilous agenda. The central issue: the possible delivery of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. With a range of 2,500 kilometers, such missiles would place Moscow within striking distance—a red line for the Kremlin.
Putin is expected to deploy his familiar diplomatic blend of threats and seduction: warnings of direct retaliation coupled with talk of peace. Trump, sensing another “deal of the century,” will claim he can end the conflict through “mutual understanding”.
Yet this is not merely a tactical discussion about Ukraine. The forthcoming summit could redefine the very architecture of global security.
Two scenarios are emerging
The optimistic one: a pragmatic compromise—Washington freezes Kyiv’s missile ambitions, Moscow halts its offensives, and the first step towards peace is taken. Trump would present himself as a peacemaker; Putin as the victor who forced America back to the negotiating table.
The darker scenario: the collapse of talks and a dangerous escalation—Russia deploying nuclear weapons closer to US borders or targeting American satellites.
If Budapest fails, the world could enter a far more perilous phase of confrontation.
Why Budapest?
Because it is the only European capital both leaders can trust. Hungary has withdrawn from the International Criminal Court, freeing itself from the arrest warrant hanging over Putin.
Isolated within the European Union, Viktor Orbán needs this diplomatic spectacle ahead of next spring’s difficult elections. Hosting Trump and Putin gives him exactly what he seeks: prestige, visibility, and new leverage.
Whether this encounter ends in breakthrough or breakdown, one thing is certain: Europe is no longer the arena—it has become the audience.
The real stage is now between Washington, Moscow, and Budapest.
The coming weeks will reveal whether Trump and Putin are scripting peace—or preparing the world for its next geopolitical earthquake.
And Where is Europe in all this?
Faced with this tête-à-tête of great powers, Europe seems condemned to impotence. Trapped by its internal divisions and strategic dependence on the United States, it no longer possesses an autonomous voice in shaping global or regional security.
Yet it is precisely in moments of uncertainty that Europe’s geopolitical future is determined. If the European Union wishes to avoid becoming merely the backdrop for others’ ambitions, it must rediscover a sense of power—not only military, but also diplomatic, normative, and industrial.
The challenge for Brussels is clear: to become once again a subject of history, not merely its spectator.
Ricardo Martins, PhD in Sociology, specializing in International Relations and Geopolitics
Follow new articles on our Telegram channel
