Recent developments in Central Europe – most notably the temporary closure of Poland’s border with Belarus – have, however, raised new questions about the reliability of the region as a transit corridor and the future of China’s connectivity strategy in Europe.
Shifts in Dynamics: The Closure of the Belarus Border
On 12 September 2025, Poland, in response to joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises and a drone-related incident, closed its border crossings with Belarus. While the Polish authorities justified the decision on national security grounds, it was implemented swiftly and without prior consultation with trade partners, surprising many Chinese businesses and logistics operators.
The border closure immediately disrupted rail cargo flows between China and the European Union, particularly those passing through Małaszewicze and Terespol – key transshipment hubs on the China-Europe rail corridor. According to logistics companies’ estimates, thousands of containers were delayed or rerouted along longer routes, generating additional costs and heightened uncertainty for importers.
Although the border was reopened on 25 September following diplomatic consultations, the incident undermined confidence in Poland as a potential long-term transit partner.
Sudden political decisions- even if temporary – erode credibility in the eyes of Chinese operators, who prefer predictable, low-risk conditions for infrastructure and logistics cooperation.
Alternative Routes: Testing New Corridors
In response to disruptions along traditional routes, China has intensified testing of alternative corridors to maintain flexibility in its Euro-Asian transport network. One frequently cited option is a northeastern overland route running from Chengdu through Kazakhstan and Russia to St. Petersburg, from where containers are shipped onward to Hamburg and other European ports. Although this route is longer, it offers relative geopolitical stability and reduces exposure to atypical disruptions in this part of Central Europe.
At the same time, Beijing continues to strengthen its engagement with the Arctic Shipping Route – a corridor that has gradually gained importance as melting ice makes navigation along Russia’s northern coast increasingly viable. Supported by Russian port infrastructure, Chinese shipping companies have already completed pilot voyages, confirming that container transit times between China and Northern Europe can be shortened from about 40 to 18 days. The Arctic route, while not entirely new, has become a symbol of China’s pragmatic adaptation to changing global trade realities.
Testing new corridors allows China to maintain operational continuity and diversify strategic risk. However, such a strategy partially dilutes the original vision of the New Silk Road focused on Poland and the surrounding region – the Polish segment of this concept is the one most at risk of losing prominence if Chinese planners increasingly prioritize the routes via Russia or the Arctic.
Poland’s Role: Potential versus Reality
Poland’s geographic location – at the intersection of Western Europe and the Eurasian landmass – gives it a natural advantage as a logistics and trade hub. The Małaszewicze terminal remains a central inland gateway in Europe, with several sources indicating that around 85–90% of China Railway Express (CRE) trains pass through or terminate there, making it one of the largest transshipment hubs for China–Europe rail cargo. Its potential as a key node within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) network has been recognized by both Chinese and European partners.
Nevertheless, this potential remains underutilized. Political instability, shifting security priorities, and inconsistent border policies introduce an element of unpredictability that complicates long-term planning. While infrastructure investments continue, their success will depend on whether Poland can maintain a balance between its geopolitical alliances within the EU and NATO and its approach to cooperation with China, which is critical for its economic success within the BRI framework.
Following the September border closure, disruptions continued to affect China-Europe freight trains even after Poland reopened its border. While Chinese operators have adjusted schedules and increased the use of alternative routes, the situation highlights the ongoing vulnerability of Poland’s transit corridors and the potential risk to its role as an efficient entry point for Asian goods into the EU market.
Conclusions: Flexibility, Risk, and the Future of Euro-Asian Connectivity
The Belt and Road Initiative remains one of the most ambitious and transformative logistics projects in the world, designed to integrate intercontinental transport networks. However, as recent events demonstrate, its success depends not only on infrastructure but also on political reliability and the ability of transit countries to maintain predictable conditions.
For Poland, this represents both a challenge and an opportunity. Its location and established transport network position it to serve as a vital bridge between Asia and the EU. Yet geopolitical tensions – particularly regarding Belarus and Russia – pose risks to that potential. By exercising caution in border management and maintaining transparency with partners, Poland can strengthen its standing as a reliable transit country in the region.
From Beijing’s perspective, flexibility and diversification remain paramount. China will continue adjusting its trade routes – through Kazakhstan, Russia, or the Arctic – to safeguard delivery efficiency and mitigate disruption risks. For Warsaw, credibility, consistency, and stability may ultimately determine whether it becomes a permanent pillar of the BRI in Europe or merely the Central European country that forced China to permanently rethink the original assumptions of this vast project.
Adrian Korczyński, Independent Analyst & Observer on Central Europe and global policy research
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