For the past few weeks, tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan have been flaring over various bilateral and international issues.
Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict Escalates Amid Growing Terror Threats
TTP Sanctuaries in Afghanistan: A Persistent Security Nightmare
Over the years, Pakistan repeatedly urged the interim Afghan government to take strict action against the TTP, BLA, and all other terrorist organizations involved in cross-border terrorist attacks. In the past, Russia and China also raised similar concerns with the Taliban government. The interim Afghan Taliban government also promised to halt the use of its soil for terrorism in neighboring countries on different regional forums. However, Pakistan saw a significant surge in terrorist activities in the last four years. Different terrorist leaders residing in Afghanistan claimed responsibility for these terrorist attacks. Pakistani officials also allege that the leadership of TTP and BLA is hiding inside Afghanistan.
After the Orakzai attack, Pakistan conducted airstrikes in Kabul on 9th October, targeting the top leadership of the TTP. Some unverified reports suggest that the TTP emir, leader Noor Wali Mehsud, was killed in this airstrike. However, the interim Afghan government has rejected such claims, holding that Noor Wali Mehsud is not in Afghanistan. It also accused Pakistan of violating Afghanistan’s sovereignty and warned it of solemn consequences. In an official statement, Afghanistan’s Defense Ministry stated, “This is an unprecedented, violent, and provocative act in the history of Afghanistan and Pakistan. If the situation escalates further following these actions, the consequences will be the responsibility of the Pakistani military.”
Escalation at the Border: Clashes and Consequences
On the other hand, Pakistan did not officially claim responsibility for this airstrike. Even the Pakistan Army’s spokesperson, Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, “noted” the reports of air strikes in Pakistan during his press briefing. During this briefing, he stated, “To protect the lives of the people of Pakistan, we are doing, and will continue to do, whatever is necessary. Our demand to Afghanistan: Your soil must not be used for terrorism against Pakistan.” Although no Pakistani official acknowledged the country’s involvement in these airstrikes. It is widely believed that these strikes were conducted by Pakistan to target the TTP hideouts.
However, tensions between the two sides have surged to an unprecedented level after these strikes. Pakistan also faced a new terrorist attack on 11th October on a Police Training Center in Dera Ismail Khan, which led to the death of 6 cops, leaving 13 injured. On the night of Oct 11, clashes between Pakistan and Afghan border security forces also erupted. As per reports, clashes broke out as the interim Afghan government launched retaliatory strikes on Pakistan military checkposts in bordering areas. Given the current situation, it is anticipated that the bilateral relations between the two neighbors will further intensify.
Diplomatic Dilemmas and Regional Realignments
Nevertheless, violent conflict between the two sides will further destabilize the region and provide an opportunity to non-state actors to exploit the situation. On the other hand, the regional situation puts Pakistan in a very tough diplomatic and strategic position. In a recent visit of the interim Taliban government’s Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, to India, both sides have decided to upgrade their diplomatic ties. Muttaqi announced that “India will raise its technical mission to a diplomatic mission in Kabul, and our diplomats will also come here.” He further added that both India and Afghanistan seek to return to “normalcy”.
Pakistan has already been suffering from terrorism and other conventional and non-conventional security threats for years. The country has recently fought a brief war with India. In the past few decades, Islamabad saw Kabul through a lens of strategic depth. However, the recent unfolding events put its security and sovereignty in jeopardy. Improving diplomatic relations between India and Afghanistan could increase Islamabad’s diplomatic and regional strategic complexities. After President Trump’s demand to regain control of Afghanistan’s Bagram airbase, the interim Taliban government is seeing Pakistan’s closing ties with Washington with suspicion. Islamabad must resolve its issues with Afghanistan through peaceful negotiations. Any sort of armed conflict with the interim Taliban government will not only jeopardize Pakistan’s internal peace and cohesion but will also threaten regional stability. On the other hand, the Afghan Taliban must also address the legitimate concerns of all the neighboring countries and ensure that no proxy group can use its soil for cross-border terrorism.
Taut Bataut is a researcher and writer that publishes on South Asian geopolitics
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