Sanae Takaichi, the “Iron Lady” who supports anti-migrant slogans, became the President of the country’s largest conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and thus will most likely become Japan’s Prime Minister.
Japanese Migration Policy, Current Changes
Japan has been actively attracting foreign migrant workers since the early 1990s, when the “Technical Intern Training Program” was launched. However, the rights of foreign workers participating in the program were often violated: more than half of the companies delayed wages, imposed overtime, treated workers disrespectfully, and changing employers was not possible. Some of these challenges have been addressed, but as recently as 2024, its replacement by 2027 with the Employment for Skill Development Program was announced. This program aims to train workers and retain them in the country; greater emphasis will be placed on feedback, support, and migrant adaptation. Additionally, since 2019, workers have been accepted under the “Specified Skilled Worker” visa, which allowed foreign migrants to come for long terms with renewal possibilities and later also permitted bringing their families under certain circumstances.
At the same time, measures for supervising foreigners are becoming increasingly strict. In 2024, amendments to the Immigration Control Act were adopted, under which migrants could lose their permanent residence permits for committing crimes, evading taxes, or failing to pay mandatory social insurance contributions.
Many perceived these measures negatively, considering them excessively harsh. However, I believe such decisions achieve a healthy balance between economic needs, public sentiment, and order in the country. Requirements for migrant workers are quite severe, but the Japanese as a nation value order, security, and traditions. The Japanese themselves are under great pressure, but this is necessary to ensure harmony in their society; similar requirements are imposed on those seeking to join this society, which, in my opinion, is quite fair, albeit harsh.
However, despite adopting these measures, anti-migrant sentiment continued to grow in Japan, as well as worldwide. The right-wing populism observed in the country’s current political space leads, it seems to me, to already excessively strict measures toward foreign workers being discussed in the Diet by LDP deputies and several opposition parties.
Sanae Takaichi: Context of Election and Policy Toward Foreigners
Sanae Takaichi represents the right wing of the LDP. Takaichi is a member of Nippon Kaigi, Japan’s largest ultranationalist lobbying group; she has stated that Japan’s participation in World War II was a forced measure of self-defense; she advocates for strengthening Japanese military capabilities, strengthening Japan’s military ties with the US, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia, and, as already mentioned, takes a hard line against foreign migrants.
Takaichi’s victory symbolizes a rightward shift in the LDP, occurring against the backdrop of rising anti-immigrant sentiment and the emergence of far-right populist movements in Japan. The success of the Sanseito party, which won 15 seats in the July 2025 upper house elections with a “Japan First” platform, demonstrated the political power of anti-immigration rhetoric. This surge in right-wing populism, along with LDP defeats, likely led many party members to think they should choose a leader with similar rhetoric.
Although specific measures have not yet been named, the new LDP president’s position is clear. Sanae Takaichi claims that Japan should change policies allowing the entry of people with different cultures and backgrounds; she promised to completely overhaul the migration policy. Given the balance of power in parliament, Sanae Takaichi will most likely be able to advance anti-migrant legislation. But what might such excessively strict measures cost the country?
Sanae Takaichi Against Japan’s Economic Reality: Migration Policy Scenarios
The “Iron Lady” will most likely face strong pressure from Japan’s business community demanding to preserve access to foreign labor. Major industries have become heavily dependent on foreign labor: manufacturers, construction companies, and service providers rely on this workforce to maintain their operations.
The Japan International Cooperation Agency projects that by 2040, Japan will need 6.7 million foreign workers to achieve moderate economic growth of 1.24% annually. Without this workforce, critical sectors including agriculture, fishing, and services will face operational paralysis. The business lobby’s influence on the LDP remains significant, and corporate leaders will likely resist policies that restrict their access to necessary workers.
Takaichi’s economic approach, based on “Abenomics” principles of aggressive fiscal spending to revive the economy, creates additional pressure to maintain liberal labor market access. Her proposal for “crisis management investment” in key sectors requires sufficient workforce capacity implementation, which may necessitate further recruitment of foreign workers even in sensitive industries.
Harsh migration policy could lead not just to personnel shortages in a country with an aging population, but to a long-term decline in Japan’s attractiveness to foreign workers. Given that competition for labor resources is intensifying among developed East Asian countries (such as Taiwan and South Korea), Japan could instantly fall behind its competitors, and catching up in case of changing popular rhetoric or objective necessity would be more difficult.
A compromise in this contradiction between populist electoral pressure and economic needs could be a two-tier approach: maintaining or expanding access to foreign workers in critical industries while simultaneously introducing more visible restrictions and requirements for other migrant categories. However, the electorate might consider these decisions as half-measures, and in areas the government doesn’t consider particularly important, problems due to labor shortages might begin.
Conclusion
Sanae Takaichi and the LDP face a difficult dilemma. Pandering to populist slogans could harm the country’s economy; ignoring the electorate’s demands could sink the party further and complicate its work with the opposition. But is such pandering to popular slogans worth it? Or will a middle path with unpredictable consequences be chosen? I have already outlined my position earlier: existing measures seem sufficiently effective for achieving social harmony and maintaining economic growth; additional tightening is unnecessary and even harmful. Ultimately, the rightward turn in Japan and worldwide is a temporary phenomenon, while poor economic decisions can be quite long-lasting, as can be seen from the example of Japan’s own “Lost Decades.”
Daniil Romanenko, Japanologist, researcher from the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences
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