Since the re-election of President Trump, US-India relations are facing a new nadir, strengthening Russia’s diplomatic standing in the region.
South Asia: A Region of Rising Strategic Value
Over the past few decades, the United States has maintained a considerable presence in the region due to its growing significance. However, Washington has been shifting its regional alliances due to evolving regional and global dynamics. The world saw deepening ties between the United States and Pakistan during the era of the so-called ‘War on Terror’. Pakistan enjoyed the status of a “Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA)” of the United States during this period. The country provided military, intelligence, and strategic assistance to the US forces during this war. During the Cold War era, it also helped Washington by recruiting and training fighters against the Soviet forces. The latter also helped Islamabad diplomatically and financially during this era. However, the relations between the two sides deteriorated after the withdrawal of the US forces from Afghanistan.
U.S. Strategic Shifts and the India-Pakistan Equation
The United States has since shown a clear tilt towards India, reflecting its shifting regional interests. Currently, China and Russia pose a considerable threat to the US-led unipolar world order. Therefore, Washington seeks to entangle the two countries in regional conflicts to divert their resources and strategic attention. The United States’ policy to deepen its ties with India was also motivated to materialize this geostrategic ambition. India and Russia share historic ties. Their bilateral relations date back to the 1950s. Since then, the two countries have engaged in multiple sectors. India is the largest importer of Russian military arms, as the latter is responsible for more than 50 percent of Indian military equipment. The two countries also collaborate in the nuclear energy sector. New Delhi also imports a significant amount of Russian oil. Last year, the two sides signed a 10-year agreement for the export of 500000 barrels of Russian crude oil to India. The latter is also one of the founding members of the BRICS.
On the other hand, China and India share a historic rivalry over border disputes. The two sides have also engaged in multiple border clashes over the issue, including a brief war in 1962. This made India the best option for the United States to curtail both the regional countries. Washington established strong economic, military, and diplomatic ties with New Delhi to achieve its regional and global geopolitical and geostrategic interests. It also sought to paralyze BRICS through its cooperation with India. However, the latter’s strengthening ties with Russia and its commitment to the BRICS were in stark contrast to the US interests.
The Trump administration reoriented its foreign policy outlook towards the region. It exerted economic and diplomatic pressure on New Delhi by imposing 50 percent trade tariffs on the country over its oil imports from Russia. The US administration also threatened India of additional tariffs prior to the recent Trump-Putin summit in Alaska. The United States’ recent realignment with Pakistan is also intended to exert diplomatic pressure on India. It once again seeks to use Pakistan as a pawn against China, and Russia.
Russia’s Diplomatic Leverage and the Prospect of Regional Peace
However, this novel approach of the Trump administration further strengthens the diplomatic stature of Russia and provides it with the opportunity to expand its regional and global influence. Due to the economic, diplomatic, and military strength of Russia, all the regional countries seek to deepen and enhance their ties with the country. China and Russia already enjoy cordial relations. The Pakistani establishment has an inherent sense of unreliability of the US alliance due to its historic experiences. Islamabad has repeatedly demonstrated its desire to enhance its relations with Moscow. Russia is also viewed as a reliable ally by the Pakistani population.
This provides Russia with a remarkable opportunity to establish peace in the South Asian region. Due to its growing influence over all three key regional players, it can serve as a mediator between them to help establish peace and stability in the region. Pakistan also aims to join BRICS to break the shackles of Western dependence. The country’s inclusion in the BRICS organization can help promote regional peace and open a new venue of multilateral cooperation in the region. As the most influential country in the region, Russia can help Pakistan gain BRICS membership, potentially leading to long-term peace in the region. Both Pakistan and India seek to establish trade ties with the Central Asia nations.
Pakistan is a gateway to the Central Asian market for India. Meanwhile, Russia’s cooperation is necessary for the two countries to establish long-term trade ties with the Central Asian region. Russia’s remarkable ties with China also provide it with the leverage to help New Delhi and Beijing resolve their bilateral issues. This will not only help enhance Russia’s international diplomatic stature but also lead to the swift and smooth rise of Moscow and Beijing as the new global superpowers, given the ensuing regional stability and peace.
Аbbas Hashemite – is a political observer and research analyst for regional and global geopolitical issues. He is currently working as an independent researcher and journalist
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