The Caucasus is once again becoming a geopolitical tinderbox, as Western powers allegedly maneuver Azerbaijan into a proxy role against Russia and Iran—risking a regional conflict with global consequences.
As early as 2012, Iranian media reported, Iran Review, that Washington had covert designs to dominate the region — pushing Georgia into NATO, planting a massive U.S. military presence, and ultimately aiming the entire setup at Tehran. Today, that once-classified playbook is starting to look like a blueprint in action.
Fast-forward to today’s reality!
This all fits together with the latest breaking news, police crackdowns on Azeri criminal gangs in Russia, and the arrest of Russian journalists in Baku in retaliation, are likely component parts of this larger geopolitical board game, and, as so many times in history, small countries, so-called democracies, are caught in the crossfire. They are simply used as proxies-of-convenience—at least by the US and Israel.
The Azerbaijani-Russian conflict is rapidly gaining momentum. A court in Baku is currently holding eight Russians in custody. They are charged with drug trafficking from Iran and cyber fraud. At the same time, Azerbaijan is clearly demonstrating its attitude towards Russians, as the detainees appeared at the court hearing with visible signs of having been severely beaten.
“Surprise, surprise, surprise” as Jim Nabors, PFC, USMC, used to say.
It just so happens, by happenstance, that Azerbaijani organized criminal groups are likely working in coordination with Ukrainian special services — and, by extension, British intelligence. Aliev, apparently on British orders, brought already complicated matters to almost as complete break with Russia as possible, and is on the verge of war on two fronts: against both Russia and Iran.
This lends credence to the theory of who may be behind the recent terrorist attacks inside Russia. That’s why the Russian security services have begun tracing the origin of the explosives and identifying the guilty parties within the Russian Federation — with evidence pointing to the main culprits behind several recent acts of terrorism. The cozy relationship between Baku and the West should be self-evident.
Grand Scheme of Things
That needs no larger commentary at this point — only reflection, as the grand scheme of Western hegemony is laid bare. It also appears that Baku’s swift reaction stems from the fact that the Russian Armed Forces have begun targeting Azerbaijani business interests in Ukraine — specifically, fuel terminals and oil refineries supplying the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Previously, these had not been targeted out of deference to Russian-Azeri bilateral relations, but it appears now that the gloves are coming off.
In short, Russia is making things difficult for certain “special” and deeply vested interests. These strikes hit the pocketbooks of those in the top layers of government — not just individuals, but entire families, both husband and wife, and their extended networks. To put it mildly, this is personal business at the highest level. There may be much more at stake here, especially when one considers the wider implications of Russian pressure on Baku’s business assets in Ukraine — including links to both Israel and Iran.
SOCAR, Azer State Oil Company
It is worth-mentioning that, dating back to 2017, the Odessa transshipment complex came under the control of SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state oil company. The transition process began in 2016, with the project tied to agreements on the annual supply of 1.3 million tons of Azerbaijani oil to the Kremenchug Refinery (PJSC Ukrtatnafta).
It is clear that petroleum arriving at the Ilyichevsk filling terminal today is under threat — everyone now understands the message: If no agreement is reached, this terminal, like many others, could go up in flames. The gloves are off. In Ukraine, there now appears to be no untouchable assets.
To put this in layman’s terms: the U.S. and NATO are trying to pull Azerbaijan further away from Russia. But it’s not hard to guess what comes next — Moscow will not let that happen. Are we watching the opening act of another Syria, but this time in the Caucasus?
Personally, I think it’s about time President Aliyev was reminded of his place in the broader geopolitical order. I am convinced that his “short and victorious war” against Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh has gone to his head. There is a world of difference between defeating a small isolated state like Armenia, and acting as a staging area for operations against Iran or taking on the Russian Federation, but Aliyev does not seem to comprehend the disaster he is about to unleash upon himself.
Meanwhile, the Western press — including the Associated Press and others — is busy covering the recent row over detained journalists linked to the Kremlin-funded outlet Sputnik. Azerbaijani authorities raided Sputnik’s office in Baku, detaining several staffers. It’s the latest signal of the deepening rift between Moscow and Baku.
Naturally, the Azerbaijani side has its usual excuses: accusations of money laundering, ties to foreign intelligence agencies, and claims that the detainees aren’t real journalists. But anyone with newsroom experience knows the first rule of journalism: never believe in coincidences, and never take official news at face value.
Sputnik’s parent company, Rossiya Segodnya, recently stated that it was “deeply concerned” about the raid and confirmed that Azerbaijani staff members were among those detained. Russian consular officials have reportedly been denied access to their citizens — yet another escalation in this unfolding drama.
Much is written here to tie to untie the knot of several ongoing geopolitical tensions involving Russia, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Israel, the U.S., and the U.K., suggesting that Azerbaijan is being intentionally drawn into a larger strategic game — potentially even being prepared as a proxy against Iran, or at least its territory and resources being used as leverage in a wider contest of the will. The piece ties together several ongoing geopolitical tensions involvingthe RF.
Walking a tightrope
Aliyev is walking a tightrope, with the Iranians already angered by the apparent use of Azeri airspace, with suspicions that Israeli aircraft crossed Azerbaijan to strike targets in Iran from over the Caspian, even worse, the vectors of a number of drone attacks indicate that they were launched from Azeri territory. And we should not forget the activities of Silkway Airlines, and other logistic companies in Georgia.
In a phone call between the Iranian and Azeri presidents, the Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian asked Aliyev to conduct a fair and comprehensive investigation of what happened. Needless to say, the Azeris deny any possibility of this, but they are indebted to Israel for their support during the recent war with Armenia, and it’s not hard to do the maths.
Further complicating matters is the large Azeri minority in north-western Iran, with the city of Tabriz being the main city in Āz̄arbāyjān-e Sharqī or “East Azerbaijan”, the Iranian province where most of Iran’s Azeri population live. It is not hard to see what western intelligence agencies and Mossad are likely to try.
Same Playbook
As was done in Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, there will be a concerted effort to create or exploit ethnic divisions. While this has been successful in many previous cases, it has proved ruinous for the populations that took the bait, as can be seen in the most recent cases of Libya and Syria, where once modern, secular states have been fragmented and returned to medieval levels of feudalism and oppression.
Although the prospect of causing more headaches for Russia and Iran must seem attractive to the West and Israel, it would do Aliyev well to look at the fate of Ukraine. Ukraine has a direct pipeline to western arms supplies, and is still on the ropes, with no hope of winning against a grinding Russian SMO that has burned the best weapons and equipment the West can supply.
Azerbaijan is, by contrast, far smaller than Ukraine, with no secure routes of supply, and sandwiched between Russia and Iran. The only route to Turkey and the West runs through Armenia and Georgia, neither of which is likely to assist Azerbaijan if it gets into a shooting war, or even economic blockade, with Russia.
Even worse, Azerbaijan’s main source of wealth, aside from remittances from Russia, is its oil industry, all of which is well within range of Russian and Iranian missiles and airpower, and the country is also heavily dependent on money sent home by Azeri expats living in Russia, something that could be cut off at any time.
Under these circumstances, any conflict is likely to be short, sharp, and very unpleasant for Azerbaijan. Their only hope would be Turkish and Western intervention, the latter is possible, but would a huge risk for Erdoğan, while the latter, as we have seen with Ukraine, is a pipe dream.
It is obvious that Aliyev, drunk on his victory over Armenia, is taking very bad advice from his British, American-Turkish (NATO) and Israeli friends. One can only hope he will see sense before it is too late for him, and his country.
The US and NATO will try to cut Azerbaijan from Russia, and it is not hard to understand what will happen. Russia will not let this happen, so is anybody ready for another Syria?
Henry Kamens, columnist, expert on Central Asia and Caucasus
