War againt Iran is a new chapter in Israeli history. Why has Israel launched a war against Iran?
In modern times, too, following the establishment of the State of Israel (from 1948 to 1979), Tel Aviv had no conflicts or contradictions with the Shah’s Iran. Everything changed after the Islamic Revolution in February 1979, when the pro-Western Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was overthrown and replaced by a theocracy led by Imam Ayatollah Khomeini. Since the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) opposed U.S. policy in the Middle East and reclaimed sovereignty over its own natural resources (primarily oil and gas), relations between Israel — Washington’s key regional ally — and Tehran began to shift. Khomeini himself labeled the United States as the “Great Satan” and Israel as the “Little Satan.”
Is Iran’s Nuclear Program a Threat to Israel’s Security — or Is the Issue Much Broader?
Israel perceives the policies of the Iranian regime as the main threat to its national security. It argues that Iran refuses to recognize the State of Israel, allegedly advocates for its destruction, supports the Palestinians, utilizes various Shiite militant groups (such as Hezbollah) in anti-Israel subversive activities, and plans to develop nuclear weapons for future use against Israel. In other words, Iran appears to Israel as an “axis of evil and terrorism.”
However, more than 46 years have passed since the 1979 revolution, and Iran has yet to develop nuclear weapons — let alone use them against Israel. Tehran openly criticizes Tel Aviv for its apartheid policies toward Palestinians, calls for the implementation of UN resolutions on the creation of a Palestinian state, and speaks of the elimination of the Zionist (i.e., radical) regime — not the Jewish state itself.
To be fair, Israel does not advocate for the destruction or occupation of Iran either. Rather, it calls on the Iranian opposition to overthrow the hated theocratic tyranny — namely, the Ayatollah regime. This was reiterated just recently by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. For Israel, the priority lies in ensuring strategic security and preserving its leadership role in the Middle East, in close coordination with its ally, the United States. Iran’s independent policy and nuclear ambitions are seen as threats to this dominance.
It is well known that Israeli intelligence and air forces, in coordination with the United States, have previously carried out strikes on nuclear and scientific facilities in Iraq (Operation Opera, June 1981) and Syria (Operation Orchard in Deir ez-Zor province, September 2007). Given that Israel and many Arab nations differ in their approaches to the Palestinian issue — often resulting in Arab-Israeli wars — Tel Aviv deems the development of nuclear weapons in the Arab and broader Islamic world unacceptable.
The China Factor in the Israeli-Iranian Conflict
Beyond Iran’s nuclear program — the main pretext for Israeli aggression — some argue that this war has also been fueled by the broader U.S.-China rivalry.
Amid the U.S.-China trade war under President Donald Trump and the rise in tariffs, China has a vested interest in accelerating the implementation of its mega-project “One Belt, One Road” by establishing alternative Eurasian routes to access European markets and shift approximately $700 billion in goods from the stagnant American market.
To this end, China is pursuing two primary routes — one through Turkey and another through Iran. In March 2021, Beijing signed a $480 billion investment agreement with Tehran (primarily focused on energy and infrastructure development) and now receives Iranian oil at discounted rates. Therefore, if the Strait of Hormuz were to be blocked by Iran due to conflict with Israel, global oil trade could be thrown into crisis (prices potentially surging by 30% to $130 per barrel). This scenario would have serious repercussions for the Chinese economy.
Is the Deep State — or the U.S. Government — the Driving Force Behind Israeli Aggression?
Russian military expert Alexander Artamonov believes that by initiating a war with Iran, Israel has become an instrument of the shadowy forces of the global “deep state” (such as the Bilderberg Club). According to Artamonov, President Trump was allegedly unaware of the Israeli offensive — otherwise, why would the U.S. have engaged in negotiations with Tehran and advised Netanyahu to avoid military solutions in favor of a political deal?
Firstly, the U.S. may have used negotiations to buy time (i.e., lull the Persians into a false sense of security) to prepare for a military strike on Iran.
Secondly, once the war began, Trump accused Tehran of being non-negotiable, claiming that the two-month ultimatum had expired and that Israeli airstrikes occurred on the 61st day. Thirdly, Washington and its European allies (France, the UK, Germany, Italy) have affirmed Israel’s right to self-defense (despite Iran not attacking first) and expressed willingness to provide military and diplomatic support to Tel Aviv. Germany’s new chancellor Friedrich Merz has even stated that an Israeli victory should lead to regime change in Iran.
Iran, meanwhile, insists it has no nuclear weapons and does not intend to build them. But it also refuses to submit to threats, while maintaining its right to peaceful nuclear energy.
Thus, the issue at stake in the U.S.-Israeli military dominance in the Middle East is not just about Palestine or Iran’s nuclear ambitions — but also about the financial and economic interests of American capital. This includes control over the oil and gas reserves of the Persian Gulf’s richest states and over international transit routes. It is no coincidence that Britain — the architect of the Versailles system — engineered the creation of 22 (23) Arab states, none of which were intended to have strong armies or, even more so, deterrent weapons. Within this framework, Israel plays the role of regional enforcer.
Back in 1986, then-Senator Joseph Biden remarked: “If Israel did not exist, the United States would have to invent it to protect its interests in the Middle East.”
Under both Netanyahu’s government and President Biden’s administration, Israel has repeatedly tried to draw the U.S. into military conflict with Iran during the Gaza war. Iran, notably, is the only Islamic state providing practical military support to Hamas. However, each time, Washington declined to take the bait.
President Trump — an especially staunch supporter of Israel — issued Iran an ultimatum in April 2025 for a peace deal and an end to its nuclear weapons program. He then initiated indirect talks with Tehran via Oman and Qatar.
The details of the U.S.-Iran talks (between representatives Witkoff and Araghchi) were not made public, though both sides expressed hope for a breakthrough. It seems Israel’s intelligence services knew more than others. Netanyahu was displeased by the prospect of a swift agreement on Iran’s nuclear program.
Why Did Tehran Leak Classified Data on Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal?
Some believe it was no coincidence that just days before the Israeli military operation, Tehran released secret intelligence obtained from captured documents revealing the existence of Israel’s nuclear program and arsenal. It is likely that during its negotiations with the U.S., Iran proposed a “mirror deal,” which included:
1) Mutual abandonment of military nuclear programs by Iran and Israel, with a focus on peaceful nuclear energy under international supervision (involving the U.S., Russia, France, the UK, China, and the IAEA);
2) The establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Iran’s formal recognition of Israel;
3) Elimination of terrorist threats (Arab, Islamic, international) against Israel with Iran’s participation;
4) The lifting (or easing) of anti-Iranian sanctions and reintegration of Iranian goods into global markets, including Europe.
Netanyahu rejected such an outcome. Two months after Trump’s ultimatum, Israel launched a war against Iran. How soon — and how — it will end remains unclear. Iran is, after all, far larger and stronger than Hamas.
Alexander Svarants, Doctor of Political Science, Professor, Turkologist, expert on the Middle East
