The Iran-Israel conflict has once again put West Asia on the edge, with implications that reverberate beyond the region
The region possesses a history which is complex, nuanced and involves subjective interpretations the likes of which have fewer precedents elsewhere. However, the region is once again teetering on the brink.
This time, it is arch rivals Iran and Israel who are at each other’s throats. Israel and Iran, once the best of friends, parted ways once the Islamic revolution in Iran took place in 1979 and brought the Ayatollahs to power.
Ever since the revolution, Iran has made Israel its public enemy number one in the region. What is interesting is that unlike the history of the Sunni sect, which considered Jerusalem the crown jewel of the Islamic world and waged holy wars throughout history, starting with the Crusades, to get it back, the Shia sect had little to do with the holy sites in Israel.
The nature of their geopolitical rivalry is based on Iran’s efforts at emerging as the undisputed leader of the Muslim world in general and West Asia in particular by championing the Palestinian cause, and the destruction of Israel is a logical part of that goal.
The current conflict was triggered by the USA and Israel’s misgivings about Iran’s nuclear program on which red flags were raised recently by IAEA and Iran’s tacit support, through finance, logistics and training to the ‘axis of resistance’ to wage a proxy war against the Jewish nation-state.
Israel, following the doctrine of pre-emptive strike like it did during the Six Day War of 1967, struck several military and nuclear targets deep inside Iran using a barrage of fighter jets. Retaliatory strikes between the two arch nemeses followed, and the conflict is currently underway with no end in sight.
It, however, will be a mistake to consider this conflict to be a skirmish at best. This conflict will certainly have ramifications which will reverberate beyond the region. An analysis, therefore, becomes essential.
Abraham Accords-Rest in Peace
Even before the conflict, the regional politics of West Asia were under profound changes. Israel, thanks to its burgeoning war in Gaza and the increasingly brutal proportions it has acquired, especially those involving the shooting of civilians running desperately in search of aid or airstrikes, caused global outrage.
The Euro-Atlantic alliance which initially supported Israel’s right to defend itself has become increasingly concerned about the surging death toll and humanitarian catastrophe decided to take Israel to task, with the UK and Germany being very vocal about it.
Fast-forward to the conflict, following Israel’s preemptive strike, gulf countries have condemned Israeli aggression and have demanded that Israel cease its activities and resort to diplomacy.
This is a clear sign that the Gulf kingdoms are no longer contemplating normalizing ties with Israel, at least in the short run.
Rise in Iranian Influence
While Iran’s proxy war against Israel is an open secret, the conflict and the preemptive Israeli attacks have had an interesting effect on Iran- it has raised Iranian influence in the region and beyond.
As the conflict is underway, Iran is moving quickly to try and mend the fissures in ties with its Sunni counterparts such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE which were its arch rivals, based on a possible rapprochement; the emergence of a possible Shia-Sunni axis against the Zionism and its American backers is a distinct possibility.
Another key issue is the involvement of key powers such as Pakistan and Turkey, which have played an influential role in shaping an anti-Israel front in West Asia for a long time. Given Turkey’s role in solidifying Iran’s economy and defenses it is quite possible that Israel will find itself isolated further.
Iranian soft power, especially the idea of Iran acting as a leading advocate of Palestinian human rights on the global forum and projecting itself as a defender of international law and rules based international order, is also a possibility.
Nuclear Deal under cloud
With Israel striking the Natanz, Isfahan nuclear facilities, Iran has displayed its unwillingness to no longer negotiate a nuclear deal like the JCPOA of 2015 without a ceasefire. It has also threatened to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty-the global flagship treaty on nuclear safety, which prohibits countries beyond the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council from acquiring and using nuclear weapons.
Even if Iran wasn’t to withdraw from the NPT, it appears increasingly possible that the country won’t negotiate a JCPOA in exchange for the removal of sanctions so long as western powers do not provide security guarantees when it comes to Israel.
India in a Quandary
India, an aspiring global power, finds itself in a quandary-given the excellent nature of the relationship it has with both countries, India is finding it difficult to manage its ties with both the countries. While Iran has urged India to condemn Israeli aggression, Israel subtly urged India to prioritize its ties with it.
India, however, is conducting a tight diplomatic balance by expressing concern at the escalating tensions in the region and has urged both countries to use diplomacy and dialogue to end the conflict and resolve all outstanding issues.
However, as the conflict drags on, it will become all the more difficult for India to make a choice. But the million rupee question remains-will India be a fence sitter or make a conscious choice?
In conclusion, it can be said that the Iran-Israel conflict is a part of a bigger geopolitical great game currently underway in West Asia involving a multiplicity of actors. It will shape in the region in a manner that wasn’t thought of.
Pranay Kumar Shome, a research analyst who is a PhD candidate at Mahatma Gandhi Central University, Bihar, India
