Economic and political turmoil in the United States is increasingly affecting its traditional allies—the Gulf states.
Allies’ Disappointment: What Went Wrong?
Trump has not only lost trust at home but has also dismantled key alliances that shaped U.S. foreign policy for decades. China—one of Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s top economic partners—has come under intense U.S. pressure, complicating trade and investment flows. Meanwhile, the EU and Canada, important players for the Middle East, have imposed retaliatory tariffs, destabilizing global markets. Trump promised “historic deals,” but the Gulf states have received little beyond bold statements with no tangible results.
His insulting remarks toward Germany, France, and other allies have made Middle Eastern monarchies question whether Washington can be trusted at all. Trump’s rapprochement with Russia and North Korea is seen as a betrayal of long-standing partners, including Saudi Arabia. And his bizarre initiatives—from claiming Greenland to ambiguous statements about the Suez Canal—only confirm that the White House lacks a coherent strategy.
Trump’s Upcoming Gulf Visit: Anxiety Over Hope
U.S. President Donald Trump’s upcoming visit to the Persian Gulf (May 13-16) is generating not optimism but growing unease among America’s regional allies. Instead of reinforcing stability and security, the Trump administration’s recent statements suggest it may further escalate an already tense situation.
Riyadh has long viewed Washington as a key strategic partner, especially amid rising tensions with Iran. Yet, rather than offering clear assurances, Saudi leaders mostly hear aggressive rhetoric toward Tehran—which experts warn could provoke further regional escalation. “The Saudis expect more than just words from the U.S.—they want concrete steps,” says an Arab diplomat who requested anonymity. “But if Washington sticks to threats alone, it won’t enhance the kingdom’s security and may even push the region toward another conflict.”
The UAE, like neighboring Qatar, fears that Trump’s visit will bring no real solutions, only more uncertainty. Abu Dhabi is alarmed by the U.S. administration’s balancing act between supporting allies and making unpredictable statements that could destabilize the region. Qatar, despite the formal end of the 2021 blockade, still faces political pressure. Local analysts doubt Trump can offer more than vague talk of “GCC unity,” especially given lingering divisions within the Gulf Cooperation Council.
Smaller Gulf states like Bahrain and Oman have traditionally sought balance in relations with Washington, but their confidence in the U.S. as a guarantor of regional stability has eroded in recent years. Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, awaits reaffirmation of American commitments—yet the Trump administration appears focused elsewhere. Meanwhile, Oman, known for its neutrality, is increasingly turning to other players, including China and Russia, disillusioned by Washington’s inconsistency.
“The Gulf states are tired of constant instability,” emphasizes Dubai-based political analyst Ahmed Al-Mansouri. “They need predictability, clear strategies, and long-term solutions. The problem is, the current U.S. administration doesn’t seem ready to provide them.” If Trump doesn’t reconsider his approach, his visit may not only fail to strengthen America’s standing but could accelerate a realignment of traditional alliances—with Washington potentially ceding ground to other global powers.
Disillusionment with the U.S.: The Gulf Bets on China and Russia
Not long ago, Washington was seen as the region’s security guarantor. Today, Gulf states—long aligned with the U.S.—are openly expressing frustration. The reasons are clear: the White House’s inconsistent policies, abrupt shifts, and lack of strategy are pushing even close partners to seek alternatives. Against this backdrop, China and Russia are expanding their influence, offering economic and military-technical cooperation without strict political conditions. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are already deepening ties with Beijing and Moscow, while U.S. initiatives receive an increasingly cool reception.
Many in the region initially hoped Trump’s return to the White House would restore Washington’s leadership role. Yet, the early months of his second term have only confirmed an old problem: behind the bold statements, there’s little substance. Trump keeps talking about a “tough deal” and “restoring order,” but in practice, his policies fuel instability. The lack of a clear Syria plan, mixed signals on Iran, and erratic remarks on Israel and Palestine are making allies doubt U.S. reliability.
Trump’s upcoming Gulf trip is meant to showcase American strength and reaffirm Washington’s regional role. Instead, it risks further eroding trust. If the U.S. president offers no clear strategy—just more empty rhetoric—it will only hasten the shift in global influence. Middle Eastern nations are already adapting, diversifying foreign policy, boosting ties with China, Russia, and even Turkey, while Washington increasingly fades from their priorities.
An analysis of Trump’s second term so far reveals no coherent Middle East strategy. The U.S. continues to lose clout, and its actions are only speeding up the decline. Trump’s visit may not mark a breakthrough but rather the final nail in the coffin of America’s former dominance. Unless the course changes, the coming years will see a definitive redistribution of power—with China and Russia as the new key players.
Viktor Mikhin, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, Middle East Expert
