The recent summit between President Putin and the US envoy to Russia Steve Witkoff led to speculations that there has been an agreement between the two sides for permanent peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Western Presence and Russian Demands
These speculations were reinforced by a recent interview with Keith Kellogg, US envoy to Ukraine. In this interview, while discussing a possible arrangement to establish peace in the region, he stated that a reassurance force comprising the French and British military could take control of the western regions of Ukraine. While the Russian army could take control of Eastern Ukraine, it had occupied during this conflict. However, soon after the interview, Keith refuted these statements and held that he was misquoted. He clarified that his statements were merely a suggestion for post-ceasefire arrangements, not about dividing Ukraine territorially.
However, his statements illustrate that the West seeks to keep European troops on Ukrainian soil and is ready to accept Russian hold on the areas and regions it occupied after unsolicited provocation by Ukraine in any possible ceasefire agreement between the two sides. President Putin has repeatedly advocated for the deployment of United Nations personnel in Ukraine to ensure the organization of fair and impartial democratic elections. This portends that the possibility of a ceasefire between the two sides hinges on the deployment of UN officials in the country.
Zelensky, Odessa, and Western Ambitions
The incumbent Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky prolonged this war and rejected all peace efforts to perpetuate his rule. In 2022, he imposed martial law under the guise of conflict escalation, a decision that has been interpreted by some as an indication of his bellicose approach to the crisis. The recent public disagreement between Zelensky and U.S. leaders Donald Trump and J.D. Vance highlights a shift in Western discourse, with some now questioning Ukraine’s conduct and broader role in prolonging the conflict. This corroborates President Putin’s stance that putting an end to his illegitimate government in Ukraine is mandatory to ensure sustainable regional peace.
Zelensky has lost his credibility as he plunged the country into a prolonged war, resulting in the deaths of thousands in the Ukrainian war. Although his spat with Donald Trump earned him some fame amongst Ukrainian citizens, the votes of 6-7 million people displaced due to the ongoing conflict could lead to a disgraceful defeat for Zelensky if he agrees to hold elections. Moreover, Valerii Zaluzhnvyi is one of his closest political and enjoys popular support due to his political maturity. However, under the present circumstances, it is unlikely that a leader facing waning public support and political vulnerability—like President Zelensky—would agree to hold elections.
President Putin has long been showing flexibility on issues related to Ukraine. He agreed to sign the Black Sea grain deal last year. However, Ukraine’s use of commercial vessels for warfare applications, unjust sanctions on Russian insurance companies, banks, ships, and ports, and a ban on its exports through the Black Sea compelled President Putin to walk out of this deal. The Black Sea holds critical significance for Russia’s defense. The Russian Black Sea fleet can only defend Russia if it is provided adequate safety. However, Russia needs to take control of the port of Odesa if it seeks a strong navy to defend it against NATO threats. Nonetheless, the European nations will never accept the Russian occupation of Odessa. Thus, it could become a major obstacle to a ceasefire deal between the two sides.
Many Western pseudo-analysts try to portray Putin as the aggressor in this conflict while justifying the Israeli war crimes in Gaza. The whole Western media and political leadership are busy proliferating propaganda against their rivals. They are the key perpetrators behind the ongoing violence in the Middle East, Africa, and between Russia and Ukraine. They have always supported puppet leaders like President Zelensky to achieve their ambitions.
A long-term, sustainable peace between Russia and Ukraine is only possible if the Western leaders stop meddling in other countries and regions. Moreover, they need to acknowledge the concerns of other nations to make this world peaceful. For long-term peace between Russia and Ukraine, the West needs to step back from its ambition to provide NATO membership to Ukraine, while addressing the security concerns of Russia. In the current circumstances, Moscow stands victorious as it has been successful in ensuring its security and sovereignty. Moreover, President Putin’s restraint throughout the conflict has shaped international perceptions of Russia in a more positive light.
Taut Bataut – is a researcher and writer that publishes on South Asian geopolitics
