The recent militant attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir, which killed 26 Indian tourists in Pahalgam on April 22, 2025, has sharply escalated tensions between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan.
Kashmir has always been a bone of contention between the two nuclear-armed countries. Pakistan and India both make their claim on the Kashmir region. They have fought three wars on this issue. This confrontation is the result of the unfair and unjust partition plan of the British colonizers. The latter dishonestly distributed the two countries to keep them dependent on the Western powers. After more than 7 decades of the partition of the Indian subcontinent, this move serves the British ambition of keeping the two countries dependent on the Western nations and keeping the region volatile.
New Delhi claims that the Kashmiri leadership declared the emergence of the region with India. Meanwhile, Pakistan claims that this declaration was unconstitutional and against the will of the majority Kashmiri population. Since 1947, there has been contention between the two sides over the Kashmir issue. The United Nations has passed multiple binding and non-binding resolutions to conduct a plebiscite to decide the fate of the region according to the desires of the local population. Pakistan claims that the Modi administration’s revocation of Article 370 to end the special status of the region was an attempt to alter the regional demography, as it allows the non-native people to buy land in Kashmir – which could alter the result of a plebiscite if it is conducted in the future.
Diplomatic Fallout and Retaliatory Measures
The Pahalgam attack has triggered a chain of retaliatory actions. The Indian government claims that the Pakistan government’s control of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, also known as Azad Kashmir/Independent Kashmir on the Pakistani side of the region, is illegitimate. This issue prompted the two countries to attain nuclear power, making the region highly volatile. In the past, the two sides attempted to resolve the issue through peaceful negotiations. However, all such moves have been sabotaged by the radical and extremist organizations on both sides.
The recent attack on the Indian tourists has once again brought the South Asian region to the brink of a war. Both sides possess nuclear power, making the situation highly volatile for the region and beyond. The Indian government blames the Pakistani establishment for supporting this attack. However, the Modi government presented no concrete evidence linking Pakistan to this attack. It only refers to the recent speech of the Army Chief of Pakistan, General Asim Munir in which he warned the rivals of the country and reiterated the country’s belief in the two-nation theory – which led to the division of the Indian subcontinent on the basis of religion.
Soon after the Pahalgam attack, the Indian government announced a series of retaliatory measures against Pakistan which included: the cancellation of visas of all Pakistani citizens, unilateral suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, which was brokered by the World Bank in 1960, closing the Attari-Wagah border crossing, reduction of the staff of High Commission to 55 to 31, and declaring the military, air, and naval advisors of the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi “persona non grata”. The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty comes at a time when Pakistan is already grappling with internal discord over canal construction in Punjab province, deepening concerns over water security and regional stability.
In a retaliatory move, the Pakistani government also adopted an offensive approach against these Indian measures. These retaliatory announcements mirrored the Indian government’s announcements against Pakistan. Islamabad rejected the Indian claim of Pakistan’s involvement in this attack and declared it a false flag operation of the Indian government to achieve their covert ambition in Kashmir. It also threatened to suspend all bilateral agreements, including the Simla Agreement of 1972. It also warned New Delhi that the disruption of the water supply will be considered as an act of war and will be responded to “with full force across the complete spectrum of national power.” It also announced the closure of the Wagah border crossing, suspension of all trade activities with India, closure of Pakistani airspace for Indian airlines, cancellation of SAARC visas for all Indian citizens, except the Sikh pilgrims, declared the Indian defense advisors “persona non grata”.
Nuclear Standoff and the Role of Global Powers
Reports suggest that the two sides have increased the presence of their troops across the border. People on both sides of the border are concerned over the intensified border situation. The Indian Navy has also threatened Pakistan with the test of INS Surat Missile amidst ongoing contention with Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan has also issued a notification to carry out surface-to-surface missile tests. Kashmiris on both sides and many other analysts have raised concerns over the security lapse of the Indian army. The contemporary intense situation could lead to a limited or broader war between the two sides, especially given the presence of militant non-state actors on both sides.
Pakistani officials are concerned over the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty. However, India’s current water infrastructure cannot significantly disrupt the water flow to Pakistan, limiting the practical impact of its threats under the Indus Water Treaty. Considering the military capabilities of the two countries, especially their nuclear weapons, the regional and global powers need to play a positive role by bringing the two sides to the negotiation table. Electronic and print media in Pakistan and India also need to play a positive role instead of sensationalizing the current situation. Moreover, both sides need to address each other concerns over the alleged support of militant organizations. Otherwise, the non-state actors and the warmongering Western powers could exploit this standoff by instigating war between the two countries to achieve their regional ambitions.
Abbas Hashemite – is a political observer and research analyst for regional and global geopolitical issues. He is currently working as an independent researcher and journalist
