The events in Syria following the rise of new forces to power in December 2024 and the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime are being closely monitored across Middle Eastern media.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed this shift, calling it “historic.” His words were followed by Israeli bombings of Syria’s military infrastructure—446 strikes across 13 provinces in just one week.
Israel has also advanced several kilometers into Syrian territory, reaching Mount Hermon overlooking Damascus, bypassing the buffer zone, and seizing land in southwestern Syria. The attacks are justified as targeting “foreign subversive agents” and opposing Turkey’s establishment of military bases in Syria—a narrative previously used under Assad.
Tel Aviv Seeks to Destabilize the Region
Analysts note that Israel continues its incursions into Syria, exploiting the army’s disintegration after the new forces took power, while boasting about destroying 80% of its facilities. Tel Aviv now aims to destabilize the republic, cripple its defense capabilities, and force it into an arms vacuum. The goal is to pressure the new government into choosing between humiliating security concessions or risking a destructive conflict with Israel.
Experts highlight Israel’s intent to disrupt Syria’s diverse ethno-religious society and divide its people. The region watches with irony as Netanyahu—whose country has been at war with Damascus since the mid-20th century and occupies the Golan Heights—claims to “protect” Syria’s Druze minority.
He declared his “commitment to shielding them from threats” and demanded Syria withdraw its forces from the south, where the Druze are concentrated in Jabal al-Druze and As-Suwayda—strategically vital areas for Israel.
Israel has not forgotten Syria’s other minority—the Kurds. Arab commentators link recent April airstrikes to the implementation of an Aleppo agreement, which stipulates the withdrawal of armed groups loyal to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyah. This move would strengthen a deal between the SDF and Syria’s new president, Ash-Sharaa, to improve mutual understanding—a development Israel opposes, as it seeks to weaken Syria’s internal front.
A Signal to Ankara
Some observers interpret Tel Aviv’s latest moves as a message to Ankara: without Israel’s involvement, Turkey cannot control Syria’s security landscape—even with U.S. approval.
Turkey likely expected that the regime change in Damascus would provide Washington and Tel Aviv enough strategic gains to allow it unilateral control over Syria. Such a shift would expel Iran and Hezbollah, cut supply lines to resistance forces, weaken Russia, and dismantle Syria’s military capabilities.
Israel Aims to Entrench Itself in Syria
However, according to Lebanese political analyst Nasir Qandil, Ankara’s bets have failed. Turkey now faces Israel’s decision to escalate military strikes, backed by unwavering U.S. support. Recent actions signal that Turkey’s military presence in Syria must remain within pre-war borders—no deployments in Hama, Homs, or influence in Damascus.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently acknowledged technical talks with Israel to de-escalate tensions over Syria but ruled out normalization.Arab analysts argue that despite public statements from both sides downplaying conflict, neither can tolerate the other’s military presence near its borders. Meanwhile, Israel, confident in Trump-era U.S. backing, is working to entrench itself in Syria, pursuing its goal of fragmenting the country—aided by Syria’s internal divisions.
Growing Rivalry in Syria
The Arab world is increasingly concerned about the Israel-Turkey rivalry in Syria, now under Islamist-leaning new leadership. The Iraqi-based Future Center for Strategic Studies warns that Israel may eventually back the Alawites as a counterbalance if Syria’s new regime threatens its interests.
The full complexity of Syria’s situation remains unclear. Yet Israel’s efforts to fragment the Levant pose serious challenges to Damascus. Some Middle Eastern analysts urge Syria’s government to prioritize reconciliation among its diverse communities. Others argue Damascus must avoid confrontation with Israel at all costs to preserve its rule and chosen path.
Yuri Zinin, Senior Research Fellow, Center for Middle East and African Studies, MGIMO (Moscow State Institute of International Relations), Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
