In following Donald Trump’s new course, the US is threatening Iran with war, while Israel is trying to get new countries involved in the conflict with Iran.
US and Israeli views of settling the Iranian nuclear file
In 2018, during his first term, President Trump initiated the US withdrawal from the 2015 JCPOA, considering the policy of his predecessor Barack Obama to be too soft on Iran. This decision was obviously influenced by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The latest Palestinian-Israeli military conflict in the Gaza Strip began during the Democratic administration of Joe Biden. Washington actively assisted Tel Aviv in defeating Hamas and pro-Iranian groups in Lebanon and Syria. However, Biden did not allow the United States to be drawn into a direct war with Iran, apparently understanding the possible scale of the negative consequences for America. At the same time, negotiations in Vienna (2021-2022) to restore the agreement with Iran failed.
Following President Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the United States is, once again, firmly defending Israeli interests and agree with Netanyahu’s opinion on the likelihood of a military solution to the issues with Iran. In early March, Trump sent a letter to the Iranian leadership, in which he realistically gave Tehran an ultimatum: agree to the peaceful abandonment of producing nuclear weapons or face an imminent war to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities. At the same time, the US leader set a two-month deadline for thinking it over (although it is unclear from which date these two months started).
According to the IRNA news agency, Tehran, via Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian, publicly rejected the threatening manner of this rhetoric and promised a tough response in the event of war.
Also, the Iranian leadership noted that they have always advocated peaceful dialogue with the West and do not wish to create nuclear weapons (in the autumn of 2003 Iran officially stopped developing nuclear weapons, but it continues to enrich uranium). Iran claims that an indirect dialogue is underway with external partners on the nuclear dossier (including with two European countries and another key country). This is clearly France, Germany and Russia; Trump himself invited Russia to mediate a political settlement of the Iranian issue.
In response to the Iranian reaction, Donald Trump threatened unprecedented bombings: “If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing. It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before”.
Such a US position could lead to a global crisis. The United States is strengthening its military contingent in the Middle East, transferring Air Force aircraft (including B-2 Spirit stealth bombers and an additional aircraft carrier group) to the Indian Ocean at the Diego Garcia base to ensure US interests in the region and for launching powerful air strikes against Yemen in response to the pro-Iranian Houthis’ activities against Israel. Defeating the Houthis is intended to deprive Iran of its supporters in the Middle East. According to Israeli media, dozens of heavy USAF transport aircraft have flown to their bases in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Kuwait and the island of Diego Garcia.
At the same time, the United States is transferring military equipment and personnel from Germany to the northern borders of Iran (namely, to Armenia). In turn, Israel continues actively supplying weapons from its Ovda base to Azerbaijan, Iran’s neighbour, where the Israelis are able to deploy combat aircraft and drones along the Aras River line.
By tightening the military encirclement of Iran, the US and Israel are trying to persuade Tehran to accept the terms of Trump’s ultimatum, where all Iranian calculations of fending off a US-Israeli attack will be useless. The tension of the situation is such that the threat of war should hardly be considered a bluff.
On April 2, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot warned Iran about the high probability of war, which will be almost inevitable if a nuclear deal is not reached soon.
Thus, European mediators are not able to prevent the prospect of a US-Iranian conflict. How will Macron influence Trump when France itself is currently experiencing problems because of the US president’s harsh policy? In turn, the US is not yet ready to conduct indirect negotiations with Iran on the nuclear file, although such a possibility is not excluded.
Currently, there is still hope – although slim – for a peaceful solution to the Iranian issue if Tehran accepts Washington’s proposal, publicly renounces the possession of nuclear weapons and the idea of attacking Israel. As they say, if you want peace, prepare for war. This is exactly what Iran is trying to demonstrate by putting the army on full alert. In the case of a negative scenario, a war with Iran could provoke a broader conflict in the region and involve other countries.
How will a war with Iran affect the region?
In Israel, some experts believe that the Iranian intelligence services are monitoring the regrouping of American forces in the region and that Tehran might be able and willing to strike first. At the same time, information is circulating in the media that there are only a few days or weeks left before war breaks out.
Meanwhile, the United States and Israel are heightening tensions near Iran (e.g. in Syria). The Israel Defence Forces periodically launch targeted air strikes against military facilities and communications in Syria, trying to provoke Türkiye, with its restrained composure. Although Ankara and Damascus have reached an understanding on concluding a major military agreement following the first visit of the new Syrian leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, to Türkiye, this document has not yet been signed. As is known, to neutralise the Kurdish issue in Syria, the head of Rojava’s security forces, Mazloum Abdi, with the approval of the United States, signed an agreement with the acting Syrian president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, on the integration of Kurdish militant groups into the Syrian army.
The trips to London and the negotiations between the Turks and the British indirectly stimulated the recent diplomatic scandal between Türkiye and Iran, when Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan accused Iran of interfering in the internal affairs of its neighbours via Shi’a groups, which could provoke a backlash against Iran (apparently hinting at the Kurdish and Azerbaijani issues inside Iran). This provoked a note of protest from Tehran and an exchange of summons between the ambassadors of the two countries at the Foreign Ministry.
Türkiye is hardly interested in straining public relations with Iran. In addition, the arrest of opposition mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and the mass protests in Istanbul could exacerbate the Turkish internal political crisis and pave the way to the overthrow of President Erdoğan.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan, which positions itself as a strategic ally of Türkiye and an equally important partner of Israel, expects to establish fruitful relations with the Trump administration through Tel Aviv and receive new benefits in the Southern Caucasus. Ilham Aliyev is delaying signing a peace treaty with Armenia, putting forward new ultimatums to Nikol Pashinyan and periodically raising the level of anti-Armenian military rhetoric, allegedly with the aim of breaking through the Zangezur corridor to Nakhichevan.
Iran has repeatedly and publicly opposed changing the internationally recognised borders of the countries of the Southern Caucasus and excludes the possibility of opening the Zangezur corridor to the detriment of Armenian sovereignty. However, the Armenian issue in this case is rather used as a reason to unleash a bigger war against Iran.
Azerbaijan has found itself in a difficult situation, as it is tricky for President Aliyev to refuse Israel’s support, given the active military and technical ties and significant Israeli assistance to Baku in the second Karabakh war. The involvement of Azerbaijan (or its geography) in a military conflict with Iran on the side of Israel and the United States will entail crushing blows from Tehran, which will force Türkiye to intervene in the conflict against Iran. A spontaneous flow of refugees because of a conflict with Iran will pose a humanitarian threat for neighbouring Armenia and Azerbaijan.
All these negative forecasts will be the natural consequences of a war with Iran. That is why Russia is taking a restrained approach to the situation and calls on the parties to exclude a military path in order to avoid fatal consequences on the regional and global levels. Despite the threatening US rhetoric against Iran, Moscow is preparing to ratify a broad agreement on strategic partnership with Iran, which includes issues of military and technical cooperation and support in the event of aggression.
Alexander SVARANTS – Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor
