The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and the subsequent protests signal a turning point in Turkey’s domestic politics, with global implications for democracy, NATO, and regional stability.
It’s becoming increasingly clear that the so-called collective West needs a serious wake-up call. When Turkey teeters on the edge of internal destabilization, the entire region feels the shockwaves—Europe included. Any semblance, or official claims, of Turkey being a reliable NATO partner are put in jeopardy.
Turkey has been taken for granted as a stabilizing anchor in one of the world’s most volatile international crossroads. Clearly it isn’t, as Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the Turkish president, has said that the main opposition party would be held accountable for injured police officers and damage to property.
My cousin’s reply: “Not much… I’m certain that’s not by happenstance.” Seems to not be talked about domestically as not much interest. One thing I liked when Dr Oz was running for the Senate was raising the profile of Turkish American issues. But he lost.
As NEO wrote last year:
“It became evident that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan suffered a political blow that went far beyond an electoral defeat—it signaled a turning tide in favor of Turkey’s more progressive and democratic forces, a shift the West claimed to support but failed to fully acknowledge.”
It was clear one year ago that what is now unfolding before our eyes was coming. “Turkish Local Elections, Airstrikes: Impact on Turkey, Region and the Larger World?” published on April 5, 2024, discusses the significant outcomes of Turkey’s local elections held on March 31, 2024.
These elections resulted in the opposition securing key municipalities, notably Istanbul, marking a significant shift in local governance. This change was perceived as a potential challenge to Erdoğan’s long-standing political dominance and an influence on Turkey’s regional and international relations, and it was indeed.
Fast-forward to now:
İmamoğlu’s party, buoyed by a sweeping victory in last year’s regional mayoral elections, has emerged as the leading force challenging Erdoğan’s long-dominant rule. The recent unrest over the arrest of İmamoğlu and subsequent crackdown underscore that this is no longer just about local politics—it’s a watershed moment for Turkey’s domestic direction and foreign policy posture.
This isn’t just about Turkey. It’s a test case for how much the world really values democracy—especially when it’s inconvenient, and when it’s happening outside the usual spheres of attention.
What we know:
Now İmamoğlu faces charges of corruption and terrorism, for starters, which he and his supporters argue are politically motivated, though given “business as usual” in Turkey, it is quite possible there is some basis to the accusations, even if the prosecutions are “convenient” for the government.
As reported in the MSM, over the period of a week, at least 1400 individuals have been arrested, often dragged from their homes in the early morning for just appearing at protests or posting blogs on social media supporting either the imprisoned mayor of Istanbul, or those protesting his arrest.
This is a self-fulfilling prophecy, as all that was previously predicted is coming true, and should be a threat to Erdoğan’s AK Party, which had been accused of clamping down on civil liberties, with each arrest further stoking anti-government feelings in Istanbul and Ankara.
According to the AP and the Financial Times, and that should be taken tongue in cheek, the American government has condemned the mass arrests, calling for the immediate and unconditional release of detained journalists and protesters.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio [recently] voiced US “concerns” to Turkey’s foreign minister over arrests and large protests in the country
Meanwhile, European leaders have faced criticism for their perceived silence, with calls for a more robust defense of democratic values in Turkey. But financial markets and currency exchanges can see what lies ahead.
Indeed, while Turkey teeters on the edge of a political reckoning, the so-called collective west—quick to tout democratic values—remains curiously muted. The U.S. government has issued a predictable statement condemning the arrests, calling for the release of detained journalists and protesters, but such declarations ring hollow when unaccompanied by meaningful pressure.
The political blocs that trounced Erdoğan’s AK Party in last year’s municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara, are largely pro-Western—courting both U.S. approval and European integration.
As predicted in NEO last year:
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his party have little time left, as he is losing his base of support. Hence, he should demonstrate political and economic restraint—and start listening to the Turkish people and face domestic and foreign policy issues head-on!
As Turkey’s democratic crisis deepens, its impact will be felt well beyond its borders. For President Erdoğan, the slow unraveling is already underway—marked by mounting protests, arrests, and silenced voices.
The regional stakes are high. Erdoğan has long walked a tightrope between NATO commitments and EU aspirations on one side, and economic dependence on Russia on the other. Any sudden shift—especially a change in leadership—could destabilize this precarious balance. Turkey’s opposition leans heavily toward the West and, if it gains power, may align more firmly with NATO on Ukraine conflict—an outcome Moscow is unlikely to overlook.
Russia has tolerated Erdoğan’s double game as long as he maintained a veneer of neutrality. But deeper Western alignment could provoke retaliation, especially given Erdoğan’s past betrayals of Russian interests in Syria.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s “Greater Israel” ambitions loom large. Turkey, currently the main backer of Syria’s rebranded jihadists under HTS and Ahmed al-Sharaa, could see its military distracted in the event of Erdoğan’s fall. That, in turn, might offer Netanyahu a strategic opening to act more aggressively in Syria—perhaps even to make a move on Damascus.
Range of Factors
Whether an overthrow will be successful depends on a wide range of factors. Much is made of Erdoğan’s unpopularity in the main cities of Ankara and Istanbul, but little mention is made of his wide support in the regions, where a majority of Turkey’s population live, and Erdoğan is currently using increasingly strong repressive measures against the protesters, with mass arrests and suppression of online communication. Whether this will have the desired effect is still not clear, with Turkish opposition leader Ozgur Ozel saying:
“There is one thing that Mr Tayyip should know: our numbers won’t decrease with the detentions and arrests, we will grow and grow and grow!”
So here we are. The warnings were clear, the writing was on the wall, and yet the West chose willful blindness over principled action. İmamoğlu’s arrest isn’t just Erdoğan’s crisis—it’s a mirror held up to those who claimed to champion democracy but turned a blind eye when it mattered.
I hate to say I told you so… but I told you so.
Henry Kamens, columnist, expert on Central Asia and Caucasus
