As the inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20th nears, much has been said about his promises to bring peace by stopping “unnecessary and never-ending bloodletting”, in making the World Safe for Democracy and the American Way.
“We’ll be talking to President Putin, and we’ll be talking to the representatives, Zelensky and representatives from Ukraine,” Trump said. “We gotta stop it, its carnage!”
It should be noted, that as Trump’s inauguration approaches, his bold promises of peace between Russia and Ukraine face mounting skepticism. His “art of the deal” strategy involves threatening Russia with increased military aid to Ukraine while pressuring Ukraine to give up territory—moves that could leave both sides unyielding and worsen the conflict.
Meanwhile, escalating attacks and provocations, coincidence or not, like the recent assassination of Lt. Gen. Kirillov, have heightened tensions, undermining negotiations and exposing Western involvement.
Trump’s Peace Pitch: A Deal Doomed to Fail?
Trump boldly claims he’ll broker peace between Russia and Ukraine on day one. Insiders reveal his plan hinges on threatening Russia with more aid to Ukraine if they resist a ceasefire, while pressuring Ukraine to compromise on territory. But what if both sides refuse?
It’s a high-stakes game of who blinks first.
Trump’s position is clear: Ukraine must surrender territory for peace, and NATO membership should be shelved for decades, if not forever. A fragmented, post-2014 Ukraine may endure as a rump state, but Trump’s strategy seems destined to falter, especially in the short term.
Meanwhile, the EU is frantically pushing for negotiations to start, with their direct involvement of course, with the Dutch defense minister warning:
“We have to make sure that European countries are at the table so that Trump does not decide with Putin on the security architecture in Europe,”
But recent escalations by the outgoing Biden administration have made the chances of a negotiated settlement much harder, especially the strikes with American ATACMS missiles and the Anglo-French Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles on targets deep within Russia.
It is likely that the terrorist attack that just happened, with the direct support of offical Kiev, on 17th December 2024, which killed Lt Gen Kirillov, the head of the Radiological Chemical and Biological Defense Troops, and his deputy, was intended to destroy any chance of negotiations. There is definitely a method in the maddess, to derail any peace deal and to try to draw NATO and the West into the conflict, with offical boots on the ground.
Incidentlly, Kirillov has extensively documented the US biolabs in Ukraine, Georgia, and throughout the world, and his death serves a twofold purpose, to cover up US crimes against humanity in their illegal bioweapon programs, as well as scupper any pragmatic settlement of the Ukraine bloodbath.
The timing could not be better for the war monagers, with the breaking by Turkey, the US, and Europe and their terrorist proxies in Syria, of the Astana accords. It is now clear to Russia, or should be, and to anyone with open eyes, that there is little to no point in trusting the word of the West. Such a conclusion was already stated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as early as 18th January 2024.
In the words of Lavrov:
“Any illusions, if some still remained since the 1990s, that the West has now opened its arms to us and that democracy will unite us all – all these illusions have finally vanished. The West is not trustworthy,”
Why negotiate when you are winning?
What is clear is that Russia needs not to negotiate, but to dictate the peace in Ukraine. The idea of freezing the conflict, as pushed by the US and EU, is competely unacceptable to Russia, as stated by the Russian Permanent Representative of Russia to the UN Vasily Nebenzya:
“Our conditions for ending the conflict are clear and logical, bearing no resemblance to the surrogate formulas recently proposed more frequently by Kyiv’s Western allies, which fail to eliminate the threat posed by the Kyiv regime to Russia.”
Nebenzya warned that any ceasefire would merely allow the West and Ukraine to regroup for further military action. Russia’s demands are unequivocal: recognition of its new regions and Crimea, withdrawal of Ukrainian forces, a demilitarized and neutral Ukraine, and a permanent bar on NATO membership. These terms represent not just a crushing blow to Ukraine but a strategic humiliation for NATO.
What hand does the US have to play in Ukraine under Trump?
Increased military aid?
This seems unlikely as it has become apparent that US weapnons supplies have dwindled due to their inability to manufacture advanced systems such as the Patriot, ATACMS, NASAMS, and HIMARS, not to mention even simple artillery shells, and the British and French are similarly unable to provide many more Storm Shadow/SCALP, resulting in the proverbial “cupboard is bare” situation.
Is Trump just bluffing?
Or will he really risk stripping the US arsenal to “punish Russia” in the event of a failure in peace talks? With someone as mercurial as “the Don” it is hard to say, and this “Chaos” effect may be what he is planning on to force a deal, in order to allow the US to shift focus. Unfortunately for Trump, Russia considers the war in Ukraine existential, and it seems that the west is completely deaf, blind, and stupid in relation to just how seriously Putin takes the current situation.
We also have the insane idea from EU member states that non-US NATO/EU peacekeepers should be deployed, which, needless to say, is another very bright red line for Moscow. It seems that Trump supports this idea “in principle” according to some sources, as it would tie in with his refusal to place US troops in harms way in Ukraine.
Too Many Irons in the Fire
Will trump cut aid to Ukraine in order to force an end to the war? Such a result is becoming increasingly likely, given Trump’s deteriorating relationship with Zelensky, as indicated by his not inviting the Ukrainian leader to his inauguration. It is also necessary to allow the US to concentrate on supporting its colonial overlord, OOPs, I mean most important ally, Israel.
It has been sickening to watch the current whitewashing of Israeli crimes in Syria, which only compound those of Gaza and Lebanon, including Netanyahu’s blatant land grab in the Golan, and what looks like a move to take Damascus.
Even worse, are the reports that Israel is considering striking Iranian nuclear facilities after the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and the subsequent destruction of the Syrian air defenses which followed. This massively reduces the defended airspace, Israeli (and, quite probably, US) aircraft would need to cross in order to strike targets in Iran.
Biden, Trump Aligned on Israel: Middle East “Peace” a Mirage
Despite their differences, Biden and Trump share unwavering support for Israel. Trump’s promises of the Middle East “peace” ring hollow against the backdrop of his ally Netanyahu’s campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. His threat of “Hell to Pay” if Hamas doesn’t release hostages by his inauguration reveals his real priorities.
Meanwhile, the self-proclaimed “Art of the Deal” author stays silent on tens of thousands of Palestinians detained by Israel, at least 50,000 murdered and not to mention the countless ceasefire violations in Lebanon, and the annexation of the Golan Heights and even the UN Buffer Zone for good measure.
A so-called “ceasefire deal” in this context would endorse the systematic wholesale genocide of the Palestinian people.
Trump, Shooting the Elephant, and the False Promise of Peace
Trump now faces his own “Shooting the Elephant” moment, echoing Orwell’s tale where control must be shown, even at great cost. If his strategy is to broker peace with Russia and isolate China, he may find himself grappling with a fully awakened Dragon and a resolute Russian Bear, both unwilling to roll over and play dead.
Even Trump seems to acknowledge the uphill battle, cautiously stating, “I’m going to try” when asked about his plan to end the war in Ukraine But his grand promises of peace risk being empty rhetoric, lacking a tangible plan and driven by bravado. Instead of resolving conflicts, his bluster may escalate them further. It is fairly obvious that Russia is winning.
Will Trump’s chaotic style force a resolution, or will it deepen divisions? As the Bible warns, “Beware the false peacemakers.”
Henry Kamens, columnist, expert on Central Asia and Caucasus
