As Europe grapples with shifting geopolitical realities and prepares for the return of Donald Trump, leaders are devising strategies to secure his support for NATO and the Ukraine conflict while navigating challenges with Russia and China.
Europe’s Menu of Options
A recent piece in The Atlantic Council said that “twenty-three of NATO’s thirty-two countries now meet the 2 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) defence spending goal. The Alliance needs to encourage the remaining nine to meet that goal soon” so that they can show the Trump administration of their seriousness in footing their own bill and so that the US president is least bothered by the issue of American overspending.
But how will this convince him to continue to maintain the Biden administration’s position on Ukraine? Meeting the spending criteria is one issue, but making Trump change his campaign promise (of ending all wars to supporting the ongoing conflict) is another. For this, Europe is considering several other options.
An article in The Guardian suggested that the UK and the EU should seize Russia’s US$300 billion and use that money to fund their support for Ukraine. The idea is that this money could be channelled back to the US. If the UK and the EU use this money to buy weapon systems from the US to send it to Ukraine, it will allow the Trump administration to earn billions. Therefore, instead of Washington having to spend money to ensure Ukraine’s victory, Washington will directly earn money by indirectly supporting European efforts to support Ukraine via NATO.
Still, whether Trump will accept this proposition or not is not clear, since his indirect support for Ukraine would still put him in the crosshairs with Russia – something he has been saying he wants to avoid so that he can spend more to “Make America Great Again”.
The Chinese Option
Europeans understand the nature of Trump’s position against Beijing. Europeans will tell Washington that they will help ‘contain’ China by imposing tariffs – which they are already doing to a considerable extent – on the same scale as Washington to curb China’s economic growth and, thus, help him his ‘trade war’, which is expected to be a lot more brutal in economic terms than it has thus far been.
A recent article in the Foreign Policy magazine said that,
“Europe should link any Trump administration threats to water down the U.S. commitment to NATO and Article 5 to Europe’s willingness to work with Trump on China. Washington needs Europe to counter Beijing, but if Trump is not ready to help with security for Europe, then Europe should make clear that it is not interested in joining forces on China. For Europe to defend its interests, it must be ready to engage in tough transactional bargaining—just like Trump”.
This might be a tempting scenario for the Trump administration to finally build a global coalition that it seriously tried to make during 2016-2020. The problem, however, with this policy lies in Europe itself.
Whereas some Atlanticists in the EU might be willing to pick this fight with China to appease the Trump administration, many states in the EU are far from eager to start a trade war and continue to fight an actual military conflict with Russia simultaneously.
Spain, for instance, is looking to ‘open’ its doors to China more than previously despite threats of the ‘trade war’ looming large over the continent. In September, during a visit to Beijing by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, the Chinese wind turbine giant Envision Energy agreed to team up with his government and invest US$1 billion to build a green hydrogen industrial park. Spain did this amidst the widespread expectation that Donald Trump would win and that he would intensify the trade war with China. Spain did this regardless of the EU’s tariffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles. Convincing the continent to take a united stand on and against China might, therefore, prove more difficult than it looks.
The Trade Option
But the Atlanticist Europeans are making plans to primarily get Trump’s support. While they will keep trying to build a common stand vis-à-vis China, the European Commission is certainly looking significantly to expand trade opportunities with the US – something that will help the Trump administration project itself as someone bringing money into the US. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has reportedly floated the idea of buying more US liquified natural gas. The EU is, therefore, willing to spend its money (and the seized Russian money) in ways that would contribute financially to the American economy.
Which of these options will ultimately work is hard to tell, for a lot of this remains shrouded in ‘known-unknown’ about what exactly Trump himself thinks he can do vis-à-vis Russia/Ukraine and China and what he will and can actually do. The anticipation in Europe, however, is that Trump might be amenable this time around if they can present him with the right set of options.
Salman Rafi Sheikh, research analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs.
