What will be the strategy of president-elect Donald Trump towards Russia and China, Washington’s two chief competitors? There is a global perception that Trump will be ‘soft’ on Russia and ‘hard’ on China.
Why Divide and Rule
Between 2020, when the first Trump presidency came to an end, and 2025, when the second Trump presidency is all set to begin, the world has undergone massive changes. Due to the US-backed conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine, Washington’s global position is weaker, and the idea of a new, multipolar world order is stronger. This is evident from the expansion of BRICS. For Donald Trump, who has a lot of interest in ‘Making America Great Again’, a decline in America’s global influence due to China and Russia is a major concern. Therefore, undoing their alliance makes sense to him.
What will this strategy of divide and rule look like? As reports indicate, Trump spoke with Russia’s President Putin on Ukraine. Although this report was denied by Kremlin, it still shows Trump’s interest in bringing the Ukraine issue, as he claimed in his presidential campaign, to a quick end. His divide and rule, therefore, involves offering Russia an olive branch vis-à-vis Ukraine and the possibility of a reintegration with the west, i.e., lifting sanctions to ‘allow’ Russia to supply gas to Europe and access to the SWIFT banking system. In return, Trump would expect Russia to gradually decrease its support for, for instance, the idea of multipolarity and not offer any support to China in his ‘trade war’ and/or in any future crisis in and around Taiwan issues.
This being the preferred strategy of Donald Trump, it also raises questions of American ability under his leadership to actually implement it and accomplish the desired outcome, i.e., a division between Russia and China and an undoing of their “no-limits” friendship.
Is Divide and Rule Possible?
Notwithstanding what Trump plans to do, there are serious questions about how sound this plan is and how effective it will be. First of all, this strategy of divide and rule seriously underestimates the strength of Russia-China ties – a friendship that is borne out of two shared visions, i.e., that the world needs to be multipolar (which means America’s unilateral domination is neither desired nor possible) and that the US domination is already in terminal decline. In fact, speaking at the Valdai Discussion Club in Sochi, Vladimir Putin reiterated, even after Trump’s victory and the possibility of him offering a win-win ‘deal’ on Ukraine, that a new multipolar world order was now in “the phase of genuine creation”.
From the Russian perspective, therefore, if a new world order is emerging despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, there is no reason for Moscow to accept Trump’s olive branch which might ultimately undermine the creation of a new world order – an order in which Russia will be much better placed than it has been within a US-led world order.
Apart from Russia’s position, the divide and rule is also likely to be counterproductive for many reasons related to Europe. For European states, Trump’s offer of an olive branch to Russia over Ukraine will be nothing short of a great American betrayal, i.e., a major setback to the efforts they have been doing for more than two years to “undo” their ties with Russia. Therefore, Trump’s offer of such an olive branch, regardless of whether Russia would accept it or not with or without coordinating first with Beijing, would directly undermine US-Europe relations. In other words, in trying to “un-unite” Russia and China, Trump is more likely to end up “un-uniting” US and Europe. In such a scenario, Europe will be forced to chart its own course of action, both militarily and economically, which will ultimately only further multipolarity and undermine NATO.
Europe’s Retaliation
In addition to this, Europe will also retaliate against Trump. What would this retaliation look like? This will neither be military nor economic. On the contrary, this will take place mainly in the foreign policy arena involving Europe’s ties with China. For Trump to really ‘win’ his trade war on China, Europe’s support is crucial. In the wake of Trump turning his back on Ukraine and Europe, the latter will have every reason to revisit its own ‘trade war’ on China and reset economic ties i.e., removing the tariffs it recently imposed on the import of Chinese Electric Vehicles. For China, stable ties with China might also offer some leverage to reset and stabilize ties with Russia.
Trump’s divide and rule will, thus, have a symbiotic impact on world politics. In some ways, it might improve Russia-US ties without necessarily undermining Russia-China ties. But it will still undermine US-Europe ties while improving Europe-China ties. Ultimately, what we can see happening in the next four years is a significant reconfiguration of global politics away from the key feature of the Biden administration’s foreign policy, i.e., a US-EU united front against Russia and China.
Salman Rafi Sheikh, research analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs.
