Trump is the president of the United States and will first and foremost be protecting the interests of his country, even if it will be to the detriment of Gulf states.
During Trump’s first term in office (2017-2021), the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), collectively and bilaterally through its member states, maintained close and mutually beneficial relations with the United States. As is known, at that time Trump broke with tradition by choosing Saudi Arabia for his first trip abroad and meeting with the leaders of Gulf states, Arab and Muslim leaders in Riyadh in May, 2017. Although there have at times been disagreements between the two sides, especially vis-à-vis the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, their strategic partnership continued up until the last days of Trump’s tenure. Most likely, this spirit of cooperation will continue and strengthen over the next four years.
Expectations of the GCC
What do the Gulf states want from Trump’s second presidential term? The newly elected president’s motto of ‘putting an end to all wars’ is attractive, just as his desire to prioritise economic objective. The world has a shared interest in combating illegal migration and predatory trade practices, although there might possibly be disagreement on the means. The Gulf states would also like to join forces in the fight against hatred and intolerance, which have recently proliferated in many parts of the world.
At the political and strategic levels, the GCC wants to put an end to raging conflicts and return to diplomacy and the peaceful settlement of disputes, as required by the UN Charter. There is no doubt that the international system has been destroyed because of acute disagreements between the permanent members of the UN Security Council, whose Western members make the organisation unable to play its key role in maintaining peace and security around the world. This is evident from the inability of this influential international organisation to stop the bloody wars of Israel in Gaza and Lebanon.
With regard to Gaza and the underlying Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the GCC would like to work more closely with the United States to end the conflict. The international community has clearly expressed the parameters of a solution based on the UN Charter and past resolutions. There are only a handful of Western countries that still condone Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza and its maximalist approach to the underlying conflict.
Recently, the Global Alliance for the Implementation of the Two-State Solution, of which, by the way, the United States is a member together with about 90 other countries, formulated a global consensus on these issues. It includes an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza, reunification with the West Bank under the Palestinian Authority and an irreversible path to an independent and viable Palestinian state within the 1967 borders. The extraordinary summit held in Riyadh expressed the common opinion of the Arab and Islamic world on the conflict and called for accountability for the unspeakable atrocities committed by Israel in both Gaza and the West Bank. Thus, de-escalation is needed in the region to prepare for the search for long-term solutions in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and elsewhere. Diplomacy should also be a starting point in relations with Iran and its regional network of advocates and allies.
Economy and culture in the plans of the GCC
At the economic level, the Gulf states share Trump’s interest – though so far only in words – in combatting predatory economic practices, but believe that this requires a correction of the global trading system, which pits industrialised countries against developing ones. Due to the fact that this US-led system is not working properly, major trading countries have refused to cooperate and are involved in a mutually destructive cycle of actions and retaliatory measures. The first Trump administration imposed a number of protectionist tariffs, including on Gulf exports to the United States. Considering Trump’s campaign rhetoric, his new administration may impose additional cartel-esque tariffs against China, which may provoke a new round of retaliatory measures. The best way to resolve trade disputes is to contact the World Trade Organisation and double efforts to restore its activity and strengthen its dispute resolution mechanism.
Finally, the GCC, like the rest of the world, wants the new White House to lead the process of cultural reconciliation and mutual understanding. Cultural exclusion has led to an increase in hate speech and crime in many parts of the world. Some of the harmful effects of this intolerance are manifested in the growing racist rhetoric, Islamophobia and anti-Semitism. The Trump administration could find partners for cooperation in the Gulf, as well as in the Arab and Islamic world, to work together to mitigate the rhetoric of the culture war and strengthen cultural and religious tolerance.
Basis for cooperation
Fortunately, there is an extensive basis for cooperation within the framework of the strategic partnership between the Gulf states and the United States, which includes interaction at the level of heads of state, as well as at the ministerial and technical levels. There are more than 10 working groups covering many aspects of this partnership, including political and defence issues, cyber threats, maritime security, air defence and counterterrorism. There are also working groups dedicated to specific issues, such as cooperation with Iran and Yemen.
The Gulf states and the United States are active members of the United States-led Combined Maritime Forces, a coalition of 46 countries that operates from Bahrain as part of five operational groups covering the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea and adjacent territories. However, while these forces are acting solely in the interests of the United States and the GCC, a lengthy path of negotiations must be overcome to take into account Arab interests.
The long-term trade and investment dialogue between the Gulf States and the United States and the framework agreement on economic cooperation concluded in 2012 provide appropriate channels for coordinating trade policy. Since the United States and the Gulf states are major energy producers, they have common interests in the field of both traditional and renewable energy sources. They have an urgent need to coordinate movements in relation to both types of energy. Since most of the GCC currencies are still closely linked to the dollar, it is important to continue monetary policy coordination, since the decisions made by the Federal Reserve negatively affect the economies of the Persian Gulf countries and have a direct impact on their monetary policy.
In any case, the GCC expects improved relations with the United States in all areas during Trump’s second term. However, time will tell to which degree their expectations will be met. After all, one should not forget that Trump is the president of the United States and will first and foremost defend the interests of his country, even to the detriment of the gulf states. At the same time, these countries are not stationary in their foreign relations and are trying to diversify them, as evidenced by the membership of Arab countries, such as the UAE and Egypt, in BRICS. And, as is known, BRICS conducts its policy on completely different principles than the United States.
Viktor Mikhin, corresponding member of RANS, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
