The circle is tightening, and Western leadership is feeling it. It won’t be long before Europe is faced with one of two choices. EU bosses will have to decide whether to become total vassals of the waning American hegemony or to rebuild relations with Russia and other regional players.
A Mali Template
In countries like Mali, where French colonial rule set the country back 100 years or more due to the piracy of French companies, leaders now welcome Russia to assist with the jihadists America and the Europeans spawned and for developmental projects that will help citizens. However, Russia and other BRICS nations are only partially altruistic in their intentions. The difference between Western methods and those pursued by the Russians is outright piracy by Western corporations and a value balance and good business practice by the BRICS. If we take a look at just one resource, using Mali as an example, we can visualize the liberal elite system being squeezed out of existence.
Gold will help Mali become one of the wealthiest nations in Africa with the help of the Russians. Why? Because the reserves of the precious metal have been forgotten for decades now. Since the Soviet Union built processing plants there, only a scattered group of Western investors have bothered with increasing production. Mali has the largest and most easily mined gold deposits in Western Africa. Factor in that Goldman Sachs only recently raised its 2024 average gold price forecast to $2,395 per ounce from $2,357 per ounce, and its 2025 outlook to $2,973 per ounce – and you can feel the French choking on being kicked from the country like non-paying tenants.
We probably won’t see a reemerging Mali Empire, but the landlocked country regaining its position in Trans-Saharan trade is likely. In addition, the one industry the French built up in Mali, cotton production, will also rocket what was once the wealthiest country in Africa into a critical link in a chain reaction spreading across the continent. Extending my contention here, let me include the Chinese plan to construct a trans-Saharan highway project in Nigeria. Zoom out further and consider the linkage of this Trans-Sahara highway to the Chinese Belt and Road project via the Algerian port of Cherchell. Study this United Nations report (PDF), “The Trans-Saharan Road Corridor,” which uses data from the Islamic Development Bank. A section of this report widens our perspective further:
“The Trans Saharan Road (TSR) corridor is one of the nine main Trans-African Highways (TAH) corridors being developed by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), the African Union (AU), the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) and the African Development Bank (AfDB) with the support of other regional and international organisations and development institutions (such as the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa – BADEA and UNCTAD).”
After reading this assessment report, it became evident that Mali has the potential to become one of Africa’s most prosperous nations. The UN report outlines prospects for Mali and other nations in the region. What is most telling for me is that Mali’s debt to GDP and debt per capita are very low compared to half the countries in the world. And Mali is drastically under-industrialized. Russia helping with the jihadists, building industry and roads, and connecting Mali with other nations gravitating into the BRICS orbit will certainly help Mali, Nigeria, Tunisia, Algeria, and a string of nations being linked to the East. Mali’s key exports go, so far, to the UAE, but exports to China and other African and Asian countries are sure to increase.
And What of Europe?
So, what is the effect of all this on Europe? Between the first quarter of 2022 and the second quarter of 2024, the value of EU imports from Russia fell by 87%. Furthermore, sanctions before the Ukrainian military operation had already dampened Russia-EU business. The EU’s posture toward Russia was dictated by Washington and, to a lesser extent, London. The problem for Europeans is simple. America cannot supply cheap raw materials, and industrial nations like Germany need them going forward. In 2021, during the Covid crisis, auto production in Germany reached an all-time low. Imagine what the future holds when production costs go through the roof and China, India, and other platters meet demand. In addition, Germany has the world’s highest auto manufacturing labor costs. So, Germany, France, and the tourist attraction nations surrounding them have little or no natural resources. And, the demand for their products internationally has waned. If America goes isolationist during the coming Trump administration, the Europeans will have to pay mightily to remain part of the “alliance.”
Mali and other African nations have always supplied gold, diamonds, cheap agricultural products, fossil fuels, uranium, and all the other necessities of developed countries to gain prosperity. If those commodities are no longer available/affordable, the quality of life in Europe and other regions will decrease. One example is sufficient to illustrate this. The EU’s price for American LNG is 40% higher than for Russian gas. Returning to the Mali example, a top producer in Africa is not even Trend Economy lists the country’s cotton imports & exports as significant. The fact that China is the world’s leading importer and exporter (ten times the U.S. total) is a meaningful side note.
What’s more significant is the fact that EU cotton import and export value far exceeds that of the U.S. and most combinations of other countries combined. Now, think about Mali and other African nations linked by corridors to the rest of the world. Then factor in gold, uranium, and a laundry list of commodities these “linked” nations possess.
If we consider exports to countries like Mali from the EU’s top industrialized country, a bleak horizon blares in our faces. In 2019, Mali imported twenty times more commodities from Germany than the country exported. Mali’s import of tractors, trucks, bulldozers, and other vehicles from Germany was not world-shaking but multiplied the situation in Mali by twenty or more nations. Then, factor in the expense of manufacturing those German exports compared to China’s or India’s competitive edge. Now we see the grander plan Vladimir Putin and his fellow BRICS leaders are enacting.
Very soon, Europe is going to have to choose a side. In the end, Russian gas and other commodities will tell the tale. Encircling Europe with an economic rim like the world has never seen has a clear positive motive. The multipolar world will be much more give-and-take, replacing the winner-take-all neocolonialism we’ve suffered under for decades. The noose is tightening. We already see many of the effects. It will be interesting to see what strategies the new administration of Donald Trump brings to the grand chessboard.
Phil Butler, is a policy investigator and analyst, a political scientist and expert on Eastern Europe, he’s an author of the recent bestseller “Putin’s Praetorians” and other books. He writes exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
