On October 17th, former Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky outlined his purported “victory plan” to the EU, in which he called for increased military aid and a path to NATO membership, and deep strikes into Russia, with hopes of ending the war by next year. However, Ukraine joining NATO remains highly improbable—actually impossible!
The origins of the current conflict can be traced back to 2008, when NATO expansion discussions first included Ukraine and Georgia, sparking a major rift with Russia. That moment in time set in motion the unraveling of Ukraine’s stability, which culminated in the events we’re seeing today.
The future of any peace will depend on which side holds the stronger position, and there’s no room for bluffing anymore. Russia has long made clear its opposition to NATO’s presence on its borders, while the West claims that it remains committed to supporting Ukraine. However, this creates a stalemate that is better described as a quagmire, where military strength and strategic alliances, or the lack thereof, will shape the ultimate outcome.
So far, it is not looking good in what has proved to be a Western sponsored proxy war. If NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table, as seems most likely, a lasting peace will require a different approach. Possible alternatives could include neutrality for Ukraine, a regional security pact, or even a frozen conflict. Ultimately, peace must come down to finding a solution that somehow respects Ukraine’s sovereignty but as a neutral state, and where the de-Nazification process has been effective, while at the same time addressing Russia’s security concerns about NATO’s eastward expansion and ensuring that the rearming of Ukraine and raising more armies for the next war does not happen.
It is becoming increasingly evident, day-by-day, that Zelensky’s regime is facing a multitude of internal and external challenges that could lead to its eventual collapse. The front lines are crumbling, and the strain on the government is showing in several ways. The Ukrainian parliament (Rada) is resisting efforts to lower the draft age for men, even considering drafting women, whereas desertions within the army are rising, with upwards of 75,000 this year alone.
For obvious reasons, there is a growing resistance to the draft itself, with widespread movements pushing back against forced conscription, including buying your way out. Additionally, corruption within the ranks of officials connected to the military draft is rampant, further undermining public confidence in the government’s ability to sustain any semblance of a war effort.
Compounding these problems are the internal power struggles within the government. Zelensky is reportedly at odds with key figures such as General Zaluzhny, former head of the army, and intelligence chief Budanov, both of whom are influential in Ukraine’s military and security apparatus. These feuds are weakening the unity and effectiveness of the government at a critical time.
All of this must be seen in the larger context of Ukraine’s failure to secure more advanced weaponry, particularly missiles, despite not knowing how to use them, a job done, it is believed, by NATO personnel acting as “volunteers”, and the billions of dollars in aid needed to sustain the war effort. International support, which once flowed freely, is now being not only questioned, but drying up, as the situation deteriorates for Ukraine on all fronts, including the previously lauded drive into Kursk Oblast.
Hence, Zelensky and his corrupted administration find themselves increasingly isolated, as the blind reliance on foreign aid has led them to a dead end, with few options for moving forward. The cracks in the regime are widening, and without decisive changes or support, the future of the government remains uncertain—especially that of Zelensky himself, whom many predict is on his way out, and the landing may not be so light.
Victory Plan is Road to Total Defeat
Zelensky’s five-point “victory plan,” in which he ruled out ceding Ukrainian territory, also called for an unconditional invitation for Kyiv to join the NATO alliance … but if anything is unconditional in this future peace deal, it will be unconditional surrender. It is described by the AP as Ukraine’s last resort to strengthen its hand in any future cease-fire negotiations with Russia.
Why should Russia back down now and roll over like a bug with its feet wiggling in the air when it is winning on all fronts and Ukraine, its army is crumbling, and it is getting close to winter, a winter that, due to the Russian destruction of up to 90% of Ukraine’s thermal power production, will be the grimmest in Ukraine in living memory.
The big question is, will the West be able to warm things up, especially relations?
Zelensky said granting Ukraine an invitation to NATO would be a “testament of determination” by its allies to support Kyiv. The former (his term of office has expired, remember) Ukrainian president has taken his wishful thinking to an unprecedented level, and his plight may befall other politicians skating on thin ice. He had talks on October 10 with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Rome as part of a push to secure additional military and financial aid.
Zelenskiy met with Macron after talks in London with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who was in Kyiv last week after taking over at the helm of the military alliance.
Zelenskiy “outlined the details” of his proposed “victory plan” to defeat Russian forces in his meetings with these two stooges, and he was expected to give the same in his upcoming meeting with Meloni.
Perfect Storm Brewing for Destruction
There are more than enough internal problems in Ukraine, and also in most of Europe and NATO itself, and these problems have been made all the worse with the failure of the Kursk invasion, this “brilliant” operation having backfired badly.
It was seemingly intended to cause panic in the Russian government, making them withdraw troops from eastern Ukraine to counter it, and also hopefully cause a “popular uprising” against Putin. Instead, it simply motivated the Russians to double down. The planners should have realized this is hallowed ground for the Russians going back to 1943 and studied the lessons of the German defeat, and how this battle was a game changer. Rather than causing support for Putin to crumble, the effect has been the opposite, with a massive boost to voluntary recruiting in Russia, and support for Special Military Operation in general.
Instead, in the wake of high casualties in Kursk, and an increasingly ruthless “popular mobilization” which now targets concert-goers, restaurants, and even wedding celebrations, domestic support for Zelensky eroding, the same trend is speeding up in the West, especially in Europe and in the US in the countdown to US elections, and it is likely, if Trump is election, the game is over.
The Harsh Reality!
The situation remains on a knife edge, with acceptance of one part of Zelensky’s plan, the deep strikes on Russia using western weapons, more than likely to instigate a major escalation. It is well known that such weapons cannot be used without intelligence and satellite data from the west, and the use of western technicians to program and target such weapons. Russia has been repeatedly clear what will happen if such strikes are launched. But it seems that we are being saved not by cooler western heads, but by the fact that the US simply does not have enough of such weapons to give, without seriously weakening its own military.
What will be left of Ukraine will never be allowed to be a member of NATO, at least not until hell freezes over, the aims of the special operation are fully achieved, and the de-Nazification program is concluded. Too much is riding on seeing this process to the end, as was the case in East Germany, which pretty much explains why the AfD is faring well, especially among voters from what was the former East Germany, in local elections.
The hang on, term-expired, president, who refuses to step aside now that his term has ended, can huff and puff all he wants, visit all the crashing and burning leaders of Europe and claim that wants peace, but on whose terms will peace be made?
There will be no Peace with Honor, as Richard Nixon spoke about ending the Vietnam War, for Zelensky, or his backers! Unlike the Vietnam situation, where the U.S. could physically withdraw, Ukraine’s future is on the line. For Ukraine, there may be no path to a peace that preserves its territorial integrity, claimed sovereignty, and dignity, without substantial concessions and a change in mentality.
Russia, too, will never accept a settlement that doesn’t enshrine its strategic gains and original objectives for the SMO, especially regarding NATO’s proximity to its borders. In this context, any peace deal—if it is ever reached—will likely come without honor. The legacy of such a peace would be fragile, and, like post-Vietnam, the scars of a prolonged and costly conflict will likely linger for generations, not only in Ukraine but for much of Europe.
It’s harder for the US to get out of Ukraine than Vietnam because it’s dirty and deeper. And now Zelensky wants nukes. He sold himself to US, and it didn’t go as planned. Now he is so desperate!
Zelensky says, “it would be horrible if Biden didn’t support Ukraine’s victory plan, which includes NATO membership”, however, horrible for whom, besides Zelensky and his corrupted minions.
Henry Kamens, columnist, expert on Central Asia and Caucasus, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
