Israel’s attacks on Lebanon, its killing of the Hezbollah leader, and Iran’s subsequent attacks on Israel most certainly indicate that the war has already expanded.
Ceasefires Sabotaged Under Biden
For the past several months, Israel has been responsible for rejecting, or obstructing, every possible ceasefire deal. It has been able to do this because of the weakness of the Biden administration vis-à-vis the Netanyahu administration. For instance, in May, Hamas accepted the Egypt-Qatar brokered ceasefire deal. Not only did Israel not reject the offer, but it also moved its military forces to invade Rafah. What did the Biden administration do about it? In June, Israel once again rejected the possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza unless its objectives – which include “the destruction of Hamas military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel” – were achieved.
What did the Biden administration do about it? Israel took control of Rafah despite Biden “reminding” Netanyahu that Rafah was his “red line”. Still, when this so-called “red line” was violated, Biden still told the world that he was not going to change his administration’s military support for Israel, showing how his administration was not only complicit in enabling a genocide but also lacked any means, even if it wanted to, to stem the tide of Israeli killing machine.
In July, when the US once again seemed to be making headway towards a ceasefire, Israel struck back and assassinated the Hamas leader in Iran. In September again, when a ceasefire deal was almost final, Netanyahu sabotaged the deal. A report in a leading Israeli newspaper, Haaretz, said that Netanyahu’s “statements indicating that Israel would not withdraw from the Gaza-Egypt border, at a time when sensitive negotiations are underway for finding a solution there, only make it more difficult to find a solution, increasing suspicions, signalling to Hamas and the mediators that Netanyahu is uninterested in a deal”.
Netanyahu’s Goals
Why has Netanyahu been sabotaging ceasefire deals? One of his key purposes is to remain in power and avoid corruption cases and possible imprisonment. He needs to continue the war. And, he ultimately hopes for a deal that will guarantee a victory in any domestic political challenge, including electoral. His strategy involves ensuring the defeat of the Democrats in the US, which he has accomplished thus far by sabotaging every ceasefire process, giving Trump leverage. What did Biden do to undo this damage? So far, he has done nothing, even though the voter perception in the US is already changing.
For instance, recent reports mention the changing viewpoint of Arab Americans, with a significant number of these people – who would traditionally support the Democrats – now thinking that the latter cannot arrange a ceasefire and that Donald Trump might be able to do that. This is Netanyahu’s success insofar as the question of adding support to Trump is concerned. We don’t know the type of ceasefire deal Trump will be able to facilitate. However, the perception guiding this politics, however, is that it could favour Israel over and above the Palestinians. If the past is any guide, Trump’s relationship with Netanyahu during his previous era as POTUS reveals he may be more inclined towards protecting his ‘friend’. For Arab Americans, the bigger consideration is not only who ends up as the US president, but also what would happen with Gaza. Let’s not forget that Arab Americans constitute key voting blocks in the swing states of Pennsylvania (126,000 Arab Americans) and Michigan (392,000 Arab Americans).
Damage Control
What matters worse, Biden is still refusing to acknowledge how he might have been played by Netanyahu. Instead of blaming Netanyahu directly, he is mincing words to say that “whether he’s (Netanyahu) trying to influence the election, I don’t know, but I’m not counting on that”. Biden’s statements are only going to make it a lot more difficult than it already is for Harris to court votes in states like Michigan, where Biden won with a majority of only 154,000 votes in 2020. Following the current opinions of Arab Americans in Michigan, their vote for Trump will tip the balance against Harris. But Harris does not want to do, or say, anything that might antagonise the Jewish American community, which tends to traditionally vote for the Democrats and is likely to vote for Harris again. The trouble, however, is that this community does not seem to hold Israel as too important an issue (Israel listed 9th on the list of the 11 most pressing issues facing the community). It means there is room for Harris to manoeuvre to minimise the damage that the Biden administration’s misguided policies vis-à-vis Israel may have caused.
Will she do this? It is unlikely because of the fear that any misguided manoeuvre at this stage could backfire and swing the Jewish vote away. In any case, if the Democrats are in a bind today, it is only because of Biden’s contradictory approach towards Israel and how he has allowed himself to be played, becoming a national embarrassment.
Salman Rafi Sheikh, research analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
