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Iran-Israel: a balance of power and possibilities

Viktor Mikhin, October 07

Following Iran’s retaliatory strike, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can start a war of his own, a war to destroy the regime in Tehran, which will naturally be waged with U.S. help, money and using the most modern U.S. technology.

Iran-Israel: a balance of power and possibilities

Judging by the analysis of experienced experts in the Western media, Iran has fallen into a trap set by the cunning and malicious Netanyahu. The Iranians trustfully took the bait after months of inaction in response to a series of devastating and humiliating attacks, resulting in the beheading of Hezbollah and the killing of one of the leaders of Hamas in Tehran. But the regime, the Western press writes, may have committed ‘self-immolation’ by firing rockets at Israel on October 2, an attack aimed at causing actual harm, which inevitably equals a retaliatory strike from the vengeful Israelis. It is quite obvious that, at this stage, hardliners on both sides are running the show. The pastime has shown that there is no such thing as ‘escalation for the purpose of de-escalation’ – only escalation. The window for diplomacy is apparently closing and what happens next depends on the senile U.S. president in the last days of his administration.

A new Iranian tactic

The Iranian attack on October 2 was only the second time Tehran directly attacked Israel. The first was in April, when Iran fired about 300 missiles and drones. These weapons were not the most effective and the Israeli Iron Dome air defence system, together with the U.S., British and Jordanian militaries, intercepted many of them. It was a performance – which many people figured out – but this time it was different. There were fewer missiles, about 180 according to the Israelis, but they were among the most modern in Iran’s arsenal: hypersonic Fattah-1 missiles five times faster than the speed of sound. Phone videos posted on the internet show them flying through the sky at an incredible speed. They are still quite inaccurate, and those that did not explode in the air fell into unpopulated areas. The only victim, as the Israeli press sarcastically notes, was allegedly a Palestinian worker from Gaza, killed by the falling tail of a rocket as he crossed a desert road in the West Bank. The IDF, though, has not published any pictures of the military bases that were attacked, but the U.S. media has, and they show large damaged and destroyed military equipment. So it is not as simple as the official Israeli authorities are trying to make it out.

What our armed forces did was only a minimal punishment for the incredible crimes of the vampirical, animalistic, usurping Zionist regime
Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran

Shortly after the Iranian attack, Netanyahu said in a video released by his office: “Iran has made a big mistake tonight and will pay for it”. Behind all the tough talk – and no doubt that is what Netanyahu meant – there was a moment of indecision or at least hesitation. When the first wave of ballistic missiles headed towards Israel, the Israeli Cabinet was meeting in a bunker near Jerusalem. It was reported that the discussion ended without deciding what form Israel’s retaliatory strike should take. The Israeli media was informed that the final plan had not been agreed upon, as Netanyahu and other officials allegedly wanted to consult with the Biden administration first. Israel will need to make sure that the United States will not hesitate and will have its back when the conflict with Iran escalates into a full-scale war, with constant bomb supplies and even what Israeli officials call “operational support”.

The Military Power of the U.S. Protecting Israel

The U.S. Navy has two aircraft carriers in the Middle East and numerous ships armed with modern guided missiles. U.S. fighter-bombers are based in Jordan and no matter how many times King Abdullah II says that the Hashemite Kingdom will not participate in any regional war, the facts stubbornly prove otherwise, and it is unlikely that the Pentagon will ask his permission to bomb Iran. Joe Biden seemingly does not want a regional war to break out in the Middle East in the last days of his tenure, but if such a war is inevitable, he must ensure that Israel wins it. Israel is changing the Middle East in its own favour and in the interests of the West. The United States would be happy to see Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, if not destroyed, then greatly weakened. First and foremost, this applies to Iran. Netanyahu may succeed in dragging the United States with him, and his long career at the highest level has been defined by the fact that he has challenged U.S. presidents. After Bill Clinton met Bibi for the first time, he exploded: “Who the f**k does he think he is?  Who’s the f**king superpower here?”

Nevertheless, President Joe Biden said that the U.S. would help Israel in shooting down any Iranian missiles aimed at the country. This statement was made after the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) announced that Iran had fired missiles at various targets in Israel in response to Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon. It is reported that the United States warned about the IDF raid, giving the Israeli military enough time to repel the Iranian missiles with the Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 anti-missile systems. “This shows the high military potential of Israel and the U.S. armed forces”, Biden said. “It also shows the careful planning by the United States and Israel to anticipate and defend against the brazen attack that we expected”. Then he harshly added a phrase that does not allow for any equivocation: “Make no mistake, the United States is fully, fully, fully supportive of Israel”.

After the Iranian shelling, Biden ordered the U.S. military in the region to intercept and shoot down any additional Iranian missiles aimed at Israel. The move highlights a rapidly escalating situation, as the U.S. is now actively involved in all operations to protect its ally. In response to the crisis, the White House called an emergency meeting attended by Vice President Kamala Harris and leading national security teams, who helped coordinate the U.S. response. It is reported that the United States is ‘actively’ preparing to support Israel in defending against an attack. Speaking to Reuters, one senior U.S. official said that this looming attack may be more large-scale than the recent one. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Galant and U.S. Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin recently held discussions, during which they talked about joint preparations to counter the Iranian threat.

The Pentagon has confirmed that the U.S. is sending additional troops and fighter jets to the Middle East. Several thousand additional troops will be sent to the region, including F-15, F-16, F-22 and A-10 fighter squadrons. This deployment is widely seen as preparation for a potential broader conflict with Iran were the situation to escalate further.

Iran’s unwavering and just position

The Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, said that everyone, including Palestinians and Lebanese, has the right to be protected from aggressors, noting that the Hamas attack on southern Israel on October 7 last year was “absolutely the right decision”. The leader’s statements came exactly a week after the Israeli regime assassinated the head of Lebanese Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and the Iranian military adviser in Lebanon, Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan, as a result of a massive airstrike on south Beirut. The leader’s remarks also came three days after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired over 180 rockets at Israeli military positions and spy centres in response to the assassination of Hezbollah leader, chief military adviser and head of the Hamas political wing Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, who was killed on July 31.

Speaking about Israel’s malicious actions in the region, starting from October last year, the leader said: “The enemy of the Iranian nation is the same as the enemy of the Palestinian, Lebanese, Iraqi, Egyptian, Syrian and Yemeni peoples”. He suggested that Muslim countries jointly take a ‘special’ step against the Israeli regime.

The leader also stated that Iran’s military actions against Israel were “completely legitimate and justified” and suggested that Iran is “in no hurry and will not hesitate” in taking measures against the aggressor. “Based on the rulings of Islam on protection, the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran and international law, the actions of the Iranian Armed Forces to punish the bloodthirsty Zionist regime were completely legitimate and justified”, the leader said. The last two operations against Israel have proved that Iran can stand up to the Israeli regime when necessary. In part of his speech, which was addressed to the faithful, the leader also spoke in Arabic, calling Israel a “sinister, rootless, artificial and unstable” regime that is barely afloat and all because of the support of the United States.

In addition, the Axis of Resistance will not retreat in the face of the massacres committed by the Israeli regime; it will emerge victorious and Iran will help realise this goal together with other countries. “The Islamic Republic of Iran will resolutely and steadfastly fulfil any duty in this regard. We will not hesitate or hurry in fulfilling our duty”, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated.

 

Victor Mikhin, corresponding member of RANS, exclusively for the online magazineNew Eastern Outlook

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