Why the rush and why not before? As any close observer already understood, or at least one that is worth his or her salt, the outcome of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict is not going to be in favor of Ukraine. All you have to do is tally the numbers in terms of men and equipment and then take a glimpse at Russian history for good measure. There is no step back now, as Stalin decreed in fighting fascist Germany.
It is ironic to read in the MSM how Antony Blinken (U.S. Secretary of State), and David Lammy (UK Foreign Secretary), are having meetings on short notice with Volodymyr Zelensky (who was once President of Ukraine), and even U.S. President Joe Biden is involved.
The purported discussions, as if the decision has not already been made, are taking place about “potentially” lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons to strike targets within Russia, or rather, how to save face and their political agenda. The ongoing talks between Ukraine and its Western allies, which focus on the policy surrounding this use of donated UK and U.S. missiles, should be one of real concern, especially for Europeans. Winter is arriving, and what they have experienced so far is but a sample of what is to come.
Nexus to Kursk Region
Meanwhile, Russia has launched a counteroffensive in the Kursk region, responding to Ukraine’s cross-border incursion, The US and UK are not taking much heed of what is going on, as it is basically a day late and dollar short to provide such permission for deep strikes inside Russia now. All this sabre rattling is linked to the reverse of the short-term success of the Ukrainian military in the Kursk region, or that they cannot accept Russia having allowed them to walk into an ambush, while the body count on the side of the Ukrainians shows who has the best advisors in the Art of War.
At least as the Western media reads, and if it would make an iota of difference, Ukraine has requested permission from Western partners to use long-range missiles to attack Russian territory, so to send home a loud message, that Ukraine is still in the fight, and it will be to the last man.
Meanwhile, footage indicates Russian airborne units making steady advances, driving back Ukraine’s stressed out and depleted troops in Kursk, despite Ukrainian forces vain attempts to slow their movement by destroying key bridges.
The situation, its elevation unfortunately bears a resemblance to the Cuban Missile Crisis dating back to 1962, during which tensions escalated between the U.S. and the Soviet Union over the placement of Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba and American ones in Turkey. It goes without saying, the potential use of long-range weapons by one side raised concerns of severe escalation. This is all the more reason for advising hesitancy to the ring leader, the US, over allowing Ukraine to use long-range US or UK made missiles against Russia, as it could provoke an uncontrollable escalation of conflict, AKA, WW3 and the demise of civilization.
Of further concern is the way the groundwork has been being laid for this “change of position” with the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, claiming that Iran has been supplying weapons to Russia, in particular the Fath-360 (BM-120) type, which has a range of 120km and is satellite guided. For some reason, this short range supersonic missile is touted as a “major threat” to US and European security, and justification for the allowing of strikes into Russia with weapons of up to 300km range for the ATACMS and 250km for the Storm Shadow air launched missile.
Odd, isn’t it?
There are a few things to unpack here. Firstly, we have repeatedly seen the US and NATO make spurious claims of weapons deliveries from Iran, China, and North Korea to justify the delivery of artillery, tanks, and the F-16, despite no real evidence being provided. I suspect this is more of the same. Russia has more than enough weapons of this type of its own to not need Iranian short range missiles, regardless of how good they may be.
Combined with the aforementioned cycle of false reports “justifying” increased escalation, we should be very skeptical of what is going on here.
It also seems that the West still has the insane idea that Russian Red Lines can be crossed without consequences. Western leaders seem to have ignored the recent Poltava strike, and the fact that NATO instructors in Ukraine are firmly in the sights of the Russian Armed Forces, and most definitely no longer on the “safe list”. It is like the three monkeys come to life, but as deaf, dumb, and blind.
Firstly, the major problem is that the prime target for US and UK provided weapons, Russian Air Force strategic bombers such as the Tu-95 and Tu-22M, which launch the array of cruise missiles devastating the Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and the Su-34 and Su-35 fighters that are obliterating the Ukrainian army on the front line with glide bombs, are already, as previously admitted by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, well outside the range of the ATACMS missiles.
In reality, given this fact, and the way Russia has been able to neutralize the GPS guidance of western supplied long-range weapons, we will see the Ukrainians continue their deliberate policy of targeting civilians, as has already been the case in Belgorod, Kursk, and, to be blunt, throughout the Donbass and Crimea not only since the start of the SMO in 2022, but since just after the Maidan coup in February 2014.
There is no way Russia will let attacks with such devastating weapons be made upon its civilians without retaliation. In fact, Dmitry Peskov has already warned that Russia will “respond appropriately” and there are a number of options to do so.
Firstly, the Russians can, and almost certainly will, respond with further devastating strikes on the remnants of Ukrainian utilities, such as electricity and waste water treatment and distribution systems. Winter is already looking bleak enough in Ukraine with power outages expected to be AT LEAST 12 hours per day.
You expect the Russians to make that 24 hours of blackouts per day.
Secondly, the continued advance of Russian forces to ensure such weapons cannot reach Russian cities from Ukrainian territory. Dmitry Medvedev has already postulated that this might require going all the way to the border of Poland.
Taking the Gloves off!
Thirdly, the long held taboo of not striking directly at Ukrainian government ministries and decision-making centers could (and probably should) be lifted, and the Russians may not care if they catch a few westerners as collateral damage.
Fourth, the supply of modern long-range weapons to other enemies of the west, the Houthis have done great work humiliating western navies using drones and outdated anti-shipping and air defense systems. Can you imagine what they could achieve with the latest Russian air defense and anti-shipping missiles? Or any number of groups, both state and non-state actors that have been the victims of western aggression in the last 30 years?
Finally, the option of striking centers of production and transit of such weapons in Europe may be taken up. After all, if, as the Russians state, such deep strikes into Russia will make the suppliers party to the war. With NATO having only 5% of the air defense systems necessary to cover its eastern flank, this would be devastating for Europe’s anemic weapons production.
Of course, some of these are rather more likely than others, but it must be remembered that the Russians’ legendary patience has its limits.
It is infuriating watching so many people die for this
I firmly believe that the collective West and NATO are strategically positioning themselves to try and achieve the defeat of the Russian Federation, before Trump can win the presidency and cuts off funding for the war in Ukraine. They have misled and instilled fear in a significant portion of the U.S. public, convincing them that Russia poses a direct threat to Europe and, by extension, the United States. This notion is deeply misguided.
During the Cold War, when such a threat might have been more credible, there was both fear and respect for Russia’s boundaries, and direct provocation was avoided. Russia is fully aware that the United States, not Ukraine, is driving the current situation. While much of the public may be misled, Russia is not, which creates a dangerous scenario.
At the same time, the U.S. likely recognizes that President Putin may be hesitant to resort to nuclear weapons first. As a result, they seem willing to push him to the brink for as long as possible.
It’s deeply frustrating to witness the loss of so many lives in pursuit of these goals.
Henry Kamens, columnist, expert on Central Asia and Caucasus, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
