Erdoğan’s interest in joining BRICS reflects Turkey’s desire to diversify its geopolitical alliances while also testing the limits of its ability to balance between two different systems.
Turkey’s Bet on BRICS: Why Now?
Turkey’s interest in joining BRICS stems from several reasons, primarily rooted in its geopolitical ambitions. The country is frustrated with its stalled EU accession process, which has seen little progress over the past few decades. Moreover, Turkey seeks to diversify its alliances, reduce its reliance on the West, and strengthen ties with emerging powers like China, Russia, and India.
This bid aligns with its goal of pursuing an independent foreign policy, particularly after strained relations with NATO and ongoing tensions with Western allies due to Turkey’s engagement with Russia.
Turkey’s long wait to join the European Union, which began in the 1960s, has been justified by the EU on the grounds of political, economic, and human rights concerns, along with geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Cyprus. However, former French president Nicolas Sarkozy (2007-2012) expressed opposition and the real reasons why Turkey could not join the European Union, stating it as a France’s red line, because of Turkey’s cultural and geographic differences, particularly its predominantly Muslim identity, made it unsuitable for EU membership. In place of full EU membership, he advocated for a “privileged partnership” with Turkey, citing concerns over European identity and cohesion. Former German Chancelor Angela Merkel backed Sarkozy with the same arguments, stating that Germany’s attempt to create a multicultural society had “utterly failed”.
The EU’s response to Turkey’s BRICS application was formal but hinted at potential future contradictions: “We expect all EU candidate countries to firmly and unequivocally support EU values, respect obligations arising from relevant trade agreements, and align with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy.”
Turkey’s EU accession bid is at a standstill, with the country placed at the bottom of the bloc’s priority list, behind Balkan candidates as well as behind Moldova and Ukraine. This has led Turkey to seek other economic and geopolitical partnerships, with BRICS emerging as a natural choice.
Additionally, Turkey’s recent efforts to improve relations with the West, in order to secure financial support for its economic issues, were met with Western demands to reduce its economic ties with Russia.
By joining BRICS, which represents around 40% of the global population and 28% of the world’s GDP, Turkey can reap benefits in various areas, including economic diversification, alternative financing, and geopolitical influence.
BRICS Means Economic and Financial Diversification for Turkey
Turkey’s move to join BRICS offers substantial opportunities for economic diversification, a critical advantage as the country would gain privileged access to more dynamic global markets. BRICS members are strategically located across South America, Africa, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Asia.
One of the major benefits Turkey could gain from BRICS membership is access to the group’s financial institutions, particularly the New Development Bank (NDB). This institution can provide alternative financing options for Turkey’s ambitious infrastructure and development projects, particularly in the transport and energy sectors, helping to ease its current economic challenges. This would reduce Turkey’s dependence on Western financial systems, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is often seen as politically restrictive.
As a BRICS member, Turkey could also engage in the bloc’s ongoing efforts to reduce dependence on the US dollar, aligning with BRICS discussions on de-dollarisation. This would offer Turkey new financial alternatives, payment mechanisms, and trade routes, increasing its economic sovereignty and potentially shielding it from future Western sanctions.
In terms of sanctions, Western suppliers are currently causing issues in the completion of Turkey’s nuclear power plant, being built by Russia’s Rosatom, as the German government is blocking Siemens from delivering relevant parts. This issue is being resolved with supplies from China.
Finally, as a BRICS member, Turkey could wield more influence in global governance structures and align with nations pushing for a more multipolar world, which aligns with Erdoğan’s foreign policy objectives.
Benefits for BRICS from Turkey’s Membership
In return, BRICS could also benefit from having Turkey as a member. Here are three key reasons: (i) Strategic location: Turkey’s geographical position as a bridge between Europe and Asia would enhance BRICS’ influence in Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. Notably, Istanbul, as the capital of the Eastern Roman Empire and later the Ottoman Empire, was considered the crossroads of the world (the centre of the world) for more than a thousand years; (ii) Economic boost: Turkey’s economy, one of the largest in the region, would add weight to BRICS in terms of both GDP and regional power; and (iii) South-South cooperation: Turkey, with its sovereign and bold diplomacy, would strengthen intra-BRICS cooperation, contributing to a more balanced global order that is less reliant on Western powers.
US, EU, and NATO Reactions
The EU and the United States are uneasy about Turkey’s potential shift towards BRICS. Both fear that Turkey’s involvement with BRICS signals a departure from traditional Western alliances, especially NATO, which could weaken their influence in the region.
The EU is particularly disappointed with Turkey’s shift in priorities regarding its membership bid. While Erdoğan has not explicitly stated that he wishes to withdraw Turkey’s EU candidacy, no country has outright rejected the possibility of joining the EU. However, many people in Istanbul feel that Turkey should withdraw its candidacy, as they believe they have been sidelined by the EU and their national pride and historical greatness cannot accept such humiliation. The EU is also concerned about the future of its partnerships with Turkey, especially in managing refugees and migrants.
The US views Turkey’s alignment with BRICS as a challenge to NATO’s cohesion, especially given that Russia, a key BRICS member, is in direct conflict with Western interests. Turkey’s growing ties with Russia, through initiatives such as the purchase of the Russian S-400 anti-missile system, have already strained its relationship with NATO and caused friction with the US over defence cooperation.
For NATO, Turkey’s move towards BRICS could cause additional internal divisions. NATO members may start to question Turkey’s loyalty to the alliance, particularly since BRICS members like Russia and China are seen as adversaries to NATO’s strategic goals. NATO’s efforts are currently focused on countering China in the Indo-Pacific and over Taiwan. Turkey’s shift could undermine its role within NATO, leading to reduced cooperation or even isolating Turkey from critical defence initiatives.
Turkey could also face economic and political drawbacks from the West. The US and the EU might impose sanctions or limit defence and trade agreements, which could have significant economic repercussions for Turkey. Additionally, Ankara risks becoming diplomatically isolated from Western powers, losing leverage on important regional issues such as Syria, the Mediterranean, and its relations with the broader Middle East. Turkey’s traditional balancing act between East and West may ultimately strain relations with both sides.
Geopolitical Implications for the New World Order
Regardless, Turkey’s inclusion in BRICS would reflect a broader shift towards a multipolar world order, where emerging economies seek to counterbalance Western dominance. The US is particularly concerned about this alignment, as BRICS has been critical of Western financial hegemony, especially the dominance of the US dollar. The United States cannot afford the end of the dollar’s hegemony, as, in that case, their decline as a global hegemonic power would be even faster. Turkey’s membership would strengthen BRICS’ geopolitical influence, challenging the current world order dominated by the West.
Turkey’s bid to join BRICS, therefore, represents a strategic shift in the global geopolitical landscape, particularly because Turkey is a NATO member and occupies a strategic location, including control over access to the Black Sea.
Conclusion
Turkey’s desire to join BRICS signals its ambition to play a more influential role in a multipolar world. This move could redefine Turkey’s position within NATO, complicate relations with the EU, and elevate its status within global governance frameworks. For BRICS, Turkey’s membership would solidify its growing influence, while the West, especially NATO and the US, would face even greater challenges in keeping Turkey fully aligned with Western interests.
In Erdoğan’s view, aligning with BRICS allows Turkey to strengthen economic ties with rapidly growing emerging markets and gain greater global influence. Erdoğan sees BRICS as a potential counterbalance to Western dominance in international affairs, particularly in financial and political institutions. Turkey’s membership would bring economic benefits, such as increased trade and investment opportunities with BRICS nations, along with access to new financial structures like the New Development Bank (NDB), which could help alleviate some of Turkey’s current economic challenges.
Turkey’s possible membership in BRICS not only reflects its desire for diversified alliances but also its pursuit of a more prominent role in the emerging multipolar world, as Erdoğan tests the limits of his ability to balance between two global systems.
Ricardo Martins ‒PhD in Sociology with specialisation in EU policies and international relations. Guest researcher at Utrecht University, the Netherlands, especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
