Initially, the collective West was celebrating the Ukrainian invasion of Russia in the Kursk border region. This ill-advised action, so much so … that [they] soon realized was premature. When I use they—sarcastically, I mean Ukraine and NATO collectively, as it is clear that such an operation was planned by outsiders, as even Ukrainian soldiers themselves were in awe of the thought of participating in an attack on Russia—as even simple soldiers knew it would not end well.
It is as if various news outlets with rather bombastic story titles, such as this “How Ukraine turned the war on its head with surprise attack on southern Russia,” by such purported military geniuses as Tim Lister, Eve Brennan and Allegra Goodwin of CNN, describe this as a “war winning” move by Ukraine with such catchy paragraphs as:
“[Ukraine has] demonstrated that they can pull off such a secretive and significant operation successfully, they can penetrate Russian territory so this is no longer the red line, and they … are still very much committed to fight for their country, that there is no such thing as war fatigue, and they’re willing to take these, in a way, extreme measures for the sake of defending their country,” Natia Seskuria, an associate fellow at the UK’s Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies (RUSI), told CNN.
Even the Flagship BBC leads with over-inflated story lines “Ukraine hopes its incursion into Russia changes the outcome of war” with such clever ideas as the offensive being launched to create, of all things, a Buffer Zone to protect the city of Sumy, and:
“The main purpose of this offensive into Kursk is to divert Russia’s attention from its occupied territories in Ukraine,”
Unfortunately, they are rather let down by President Biden himself, who said:
“I’ve been talking to my staff every four to five hours for the past six to eight days, and that’s creating a real dilemma for Putin.” “We are in direct communication with Ukraine,”
While western media has been full of claims of Ukrainian “victories” in during the invasion of “Old Russia,” and boasting of Ukraine achieving its objectives, particularly the diversion of Russian troops from other areas of the front line in the South and East, and rumors circulate, including form Ukrainian POWs captured by Russian forces, that a second day objective was the capture of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in order to bargain it in exchange for the Zaparozhe Nuclear Power Plant held by Russia.
Facts speak louder the rhetoric
In fact, the opposite appears to be the reality, with Russian troops taking the opportunity to advance on strategic targets in Ukraine, such a Pokrovsk and Toretsk, while Ukrainian advances have been contained, and in many areas, now reversed with Ukrainian shock troops surrendering in mass
Many observers are talking about this invasion as a “game changer” and that may well be true, but not in the way that most western propaganda outlets would like us to think. But now Russian can take its gloves off in how it manages a SMO, and fielding more troops to conflict.
Remember Operation Citadel?
Likely not, as few, still alive today, were even born. That was going to be a “Game Changer” too, and that is why more realistic, analysts are comparing this offensive with that of Operation Citadel, the Nazi plan for the battle of Kursk in 1943, where a tempting Soviet salient was intended to be captured by a pincer attack.
Unfortunately for the Germans, STAVKA, the Soviet high command, was well aware of German intentions-both from British supplied ENIGMA intelligence, and their own agents inside Germany. The titanic battle around Kursk resulted in a clear Soviet victory, and the German loss of strategic initiative on the Eastern front for the rest of the war, which sealed the fate of Nazi Germany for all practical purposes, in the wake of Stalingrad, the infamous defeat of a whole Germany Army.
While this analogy is attractive from a geographic point of view, I am more inclined to think that the 2023 Ukrainian late summer offensive in the Donbass was this war’s equivalent of Kursk in 1943, being a forlorn drive into well-prepared Soviet defenses, with the accordingly horrendous casualties one would expect when the enemy is well-prepared and dug in.
The Kursk offensive of August 2024 more reminds me of a couple of other battles. Firstly, the desperation of the German 1918 “Kaiserschlagt” offensives, where the cream of the German infantry was siphoned off into the infamous Stosstruppen units, which despite initial successes, were stopped, and destroyed by the combined British and French forces in France and Belgium, leaving the German army severely weakened and ultimately unable to defend against the allied counter-attack that won the first world war. Secondly, the battle of the bulge, a desperate German bid to drive through the Ardennes to Antwerp and force the western allies to negotiate.
In that case, again, the cream of the German Army was thrown into battle, and again, despite initial successes, particularly by Kampfgruppe Peiper, were stopped by stubborn American resistance, and destroyed by Anglo-American air power and ground forces. It is often estimated that, if the German forces thus thrown away in offence, had been used more defensively on the eastern front, the Germans could have held out far longer.
Are we seeing a re-run here in Kursk?
Firstly, the idea that this attack will “Change the nature of the SMO” will likely be fulfilled, but not by Ukraine, but by Russia. Such an attack on Russian territory gives Moscow the right, and incentive, to treat the current conflict not as a Special Military Operation, but as an all-out war.
Secondly, western crowing about the use of western equipment, particularly German tanks, and Western training, particularly by the British, is made even more obscene by the pedantic comments that western governments are issuing trying to divert blame, such as this piece of sophistry from the Nazis….. I mean Germans:
“Ukraine has the right to self-defense enshrined in international law,” Germany’s foreign ministry told POLITICO in a statement. “This is not limited to its own territory.”
They go on to say:
“The question of whether Western weapons are involved doesn’t come up because, after they are delivered, they are Ukrainian weapons,” said Kiesewetter.
Meanwhile, the British, ever the most antagonistic to Russia, are pushing for the removal of restrictions on the use of western weapons by Ukriane, with new Defence secretary John Healy mouthing off in suicidal pub argument fashion:
The UK “should be proud” of British weapons being used by Ukraine, despite the country’s incursion into Russia, Defence Secretary John Healey has said.
What stupidity
Needless to say, the Russians are not taking this laying down, with Dmitry Medvedev responding on X:
The German newspaper Bild has published a revanchist article where it proudly announces German tanks’ comeback to the Russian land. In response, we’re going to do everything to bring the newest Russian tanks to Platz d. Republik.
It seems now, however, that the initial euphoria in Ukraine and the west is wearing off in the face of the harsh reality of Russian military superiority and human resolve. Ukraine is suffering immense losses, desperately trying to hold on to the limited, one would say pyrrhic, gains it has made initially. Equipment losses are deemed to be twice as high as the already disastrous front line in the Donbass, including the unfolding disaster near Pokrovsk, as shown by this “morale boosting” announcement:
“The enemy is rapidly approaching the outskirts of Pokrovsk,” Serhii Dobriak, the head of the military administration. “Evacuation is underway in the community. Don’t delay!”
It is widely acknowledged now that transfers of Russian troops from the main line of battle to Kursk have been, at best, minimal, if not non-existent. The Russian government appears to have been content to contain the elite of the Ukrainian army with use of relatively inexperienced Rosguard volunteers and regular army conscripts, while their real hardened troops seeks to finish the job in Ukraine, where the UAF is suffering badly from being stripped of elite units and their equipment for what appears increasingly to have been a doomed gamble.
What remains to be seen is whether the Ukrainian high command is brave enough to cut its losses and pull back from Kursk, or whether they will continue to reinforce what is rapidly becoming another bloody failure. Based on previous experience, such as Bakhmut, I have my doubts that either the Ukrainians, or their NATO masters will see sense.
It is as if this incursion into Russia was a PR stunt, similar to the August 2008 Georgian-Russian conflict, so to help out Ukraine’s BIG patron, the Biden Administration, during a presidential election year.
I have a suspicion that this offensive may, in fact, have been expected to fail from the start, but is simply an attempt to delay the collapse of Ukrainian resistance until after the November elections in the United States.
Regardless, Kampfgruppe Peiper 2.0 is having a very bad day, indeed.
Seth Ferris, investigative journalist and political scientist, expert on Middle Eastern affairs, exclusively for the online magazine «New Eastern Outlook».
