A number of Iranian officials are emphasising the Leader of the Islamic Revolution’s vow to take revenge on Israel for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. He was killed when a shell hit his temporary residence in northern Tehran, according to a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The head of the Hamas political bureau travelled to Iran to attend the inauguration ceremony of President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, who led the funeral prayer over Haniyeh’s body before it was handed over to Qatar, vowed to avenge the blood of Iran’s ‘dear guest’. “The criminal and terrorist Zionist regime tortured our dear guest in our homeland and left us inconsolable, but it also prepared the ground for its own severe punishment” the Leader said in a statement released hours after Haniyeh’s assassination. The first senior Iranian official to restate the leader’s oath was Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, an influential figure in Iran’s political system. He blamed Washington directly, saying that no Israeli crime is ever committed without direct coordination from the US. Analysts believe Washington gave the green light for Haniyeh’s assassination during Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent trip to the US, a visit that included his harsh speech before Congress.
What is Tehran planning?
Now analysts around the world are trying to predict the Iranian response to Netanyahu’s brazen provocation. The fact that these Israeli actions are aimed at dragging the US into the upcoming war in the Middle East is not even discussed – this is already evident. US President Joe Biden, finally having lost touch with reality, expressed hope that Iran would not strike at Israel in response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Thus, the ‘green light’ from the US has long since been given to Netanyahu to pursue his policy of state terror.
Analysts also have no doubt that Iran will respond to this shameless murder. But what are Tehran’s plans and, most importantly, what can the Iranian authorities do and what orders will the Leader of the Islamic Revolution give? The nature of Iran’s reaction to the assassination of the Hamas representative remains uncertain. Some speculate that it could surpass the scale of the Iranian response to the Israeli strike on its embassy in Damascus, which included the launch of numerous drones and missiles at Israel in April this year. Iran’s most senior military official, Chief of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, stated: “The way the Axis of Resistance and we will seek justice for the martyrdom of Haniyeh is under review. Various actions must be taken and the Zionists will undoubtedly regret it…This will definitely happen”.
Many analysts believe that Iran’s retaliatory strike is unlikely to include the same killing tactics that Israel has been using for years. Apparently, Iran will do something similar to what it did during Operation True Promise on April 14, but the response will be tougher and more destructive. This is because in April, Iran was only trying to demonstrate its capabilities and did not want to cause serious damage (at the request of the US) to the Israeli regime. There is no doubt that Israel’s assassination of a senior Hezbollah figure hours before Haniyeh’s assassination and its earlier strike on the Yemeni port of al-Hodeidah mean that a coordinated response against Israel from several fronts may be inevitable. Lebanese Hezbollah, Yemeni Ansar Allah and even the resistance forces in Syria and Iraq may join Iran in its retaliation. Analysts also note that US or other Western forces in the region are unlikely to become Iranian targets. Tehran has repeatedly noted that it does not want a large-scale war that will bring only troubles and misfortunes to the peoples of the region.
The Israeli regime also expects a strong response from Iran. In a conversation with his British counterpart, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant cowardly insisted on the need to create a ‘coalition’ of allies to protect Israel from potential attacks from the Axis of Resistance, just as some Western and Arab countries helped intercept Iranian drones and missiles on April 14. Now, it is unlikely that Tehran will notify the US and Arab countries in advance of its retaliatory strike. Moreover, as Joe Biden himself boasted, during his presidency he provided military assistance to Israel for a huge sum of more than $12 billion.
Is the region on the verge of total war?
By killing Haniyeh, a key figure on the Palestinian side of the negotiations, Netanyahu loudly and clearly demonstrated to the whole world that ending the war in Gaza at this stage is not his main priority – or his goal. Moreover, given Iran’s inevitable reaction to the assassination of Haniyeh, its actions indicate a deliberate desire to involve the US (against the will of its people) in a regional conflict with Tehran and the Axis of Resistance. This has caused observers around the world to become increasingly concerned about the prospects that the situation could escalate into a full-scale war with severe and long-term consequences. However, many analysts believe that although Netanyahu has easily manipulated Joe Biden and his top advisers, such as Anthony Blinken or Sullivan, over the past 10 months, these two are still quite cautious, trying to avoid a large-scale regional conflict. Moreover, the current administration considers China to be a stronger and more dangerous enemy that the US will have to face in the near future. The US hegemon, which is leaving the world stage can no longer wage several wars simultaneously as was previously the case.
Iran has been dealing with Netanyahu for several years, it won’t fall into his trap; our response will be firm and it will be carried out in such a way as not to give Washington a reason to go to war with us – notes Nournews, an agency believed to be close to Iran’s National Security Council. “The current state of international relations and the crisis in West Asia also suggest that the U.S. is not inclined to endorse such a war. With the upcoming elections, the U.S. seems more focused on the war in Ukraine and competition with China, and public opinion in the country does not favour another direct military engagement”.
Israel is engulfed in fear
Panic is spreading in Israel amid a growing sense of unease over an imminent retaliatory attack by Iran and regional resistance groups. The threat of retaliation really keeps the Israelis on their toes, as they are unable to predict the exact time or method of a counterattack and somehow prepare to repel it. Video footage from news sources highlights the desperation and fears of the public in Tel Aviv, Haifa, Ashdod and other Israeli cities. Israelis are expressing their sense of alarm at the possibility of a strong Iranian military response to the Netanyahu regime in retaliation for its assassination campaigns. Many airlines have cancelled their flights to Israel. For example, Air India announced that it was cancelling all flights to and from Israel, and the Polish airline Lot followed suit.
The fear of retaliatory attacks from Iran and regional resistance groups also keeps the US and its Western allies on edge. In this regard, Washington decided to replace its aircraft carrier strike group USS Theodore Roosevelt in the Middle East with the USS Abraham Lincoln group. This was stated by the head of the US Defence Department, Lloyd Austin. He added that additional cruisers and destroyers capable of intercepting ballistic missiles are being sent to the region to protect against strikes. Austin also ordered the deployment of a squadron of fighter jets to the region.
Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh noted that the build-up of defence capabilities was the result of talks between US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as subsequent talks between Austin and his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant. “The global defence of the US is dynamic and the Department of Defence retains the ability to deploy quickly in response to emerging threats to national security”, Singh stated cynically. It makes one wonder who is threatening the United States in the Middle East, if even officials in Tehran have repeatedly stated that they are not going to strike at the US military? Former Israeli Air Defence Commander Brigadier General Zvika Haimovich acknowledged that Iran is a “superpower in the field of tactical ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles”. Former veteran US diplomat Chas Freeman also stated that Iran carefully targeted Israeli military installations during its drone and missile attacks in April. “Iran has managed to sow panic in Israeli society…and it can crush Israel’s defences if it decides to do so, and Israel cannot defend itself without the active participation of the US, UK, France and, in this case, Jordan”, said Freeman, who was the US ambassador to Saudi Arabia in 1989-92.
The Iranian rocket and drone attack against Israel in April shed light on the fact that the rules of war in Western Asia have changed completely, so one can only speculate as to what currently awaits Israel.
Viktor Mikhin, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
