Shaped by the existing geopolitical dynamics, the Arctic region is coming under a lot of pressure from global powers. Russia and China, on the one hand, are seeking to integrate this region via what China calls a “Polar Silk Road” – something that would make the region’s fossil fuels accessible worldwide. But the US is increasingly worried about these developments. It primarily sees these developments from a zero-sum perspective, with any gains that the Russia-China duo makes directly – and necessarily – translating into Washington’s losses. To avert this possibility, the US has released its ‘2024 Arctic Strategy’. This strategy is little more than a usual charge sheet, presenting Russia and China as destabilizing powers. This, however, is just another way of justifying the region’s militarization.
The 2024 US Arctic Strategy
Washington’s “2024 Arctic Strategy” notes the recent Russian military buildup in the Arctic. But this has a context. More importantly, this pronouncement comes against the backdrop of the Arctic Council’s suspension of ties with Russia in 2022. The decision was taken in light of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, but it was this decision that also pushed Russia towards China for deeper cooperation. Let’s not forget that, until the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, the Arctic was not a NATOized region. But Sweden and Finland, two key Arctic states, have also joined NATO, leaving Russia with no option but to coordinate with China. But China’s presence in the Arctic is now making the US extremely uncomfortable. In the absence of any viable plan to utilize the Arctic, the US is seeking to militarize it. For Washington to do this, it needs to shift the blame of militarization to its enemies first. This is what the ‘new’ strategy is all about. It says:
“Russia’s Arctic capabilities have the potential to hold the U.S. homeland, as well as Allied and partner territory, at risk … [therefore] By continuing to invest in sensors, intelligence, and information-sharing capabilities, DoD will enhance our understanding of the Arctic operating environment as well as our ability to manage risk”.
It further adds that the DoD will:
“Exercise presence in the Arctic by training both independently and alongside Allies and partners to demonstrate interoperability and credible joint capabilities while supporting homeland defense and global power projection operations”.
Enter China
All of this is needed because China is there alongside Russia, tilting the region’s balance of power in Russia’s favour. The Arctic region has been important for Russia for a very long time. It is Russia’s second-priority region and a key source of its natural resources. But it is mainly China’s emergence that worries Washington the most because it feels that it does not have enough resources to tackle, let alone defeat, them both. The strategy report notes:
“Although the vast majority of the Arctic is under the jurisdiction of sovereign states, the PRC seeks to promote the Arctic region as a “global commons” in order to shift Arctic governance in its favor. The PRC’s 2018 Arctic Policy claims non-Arctic states should contribute to the region’s “shared future for mankind” due to the Arctic’s global significance. Its “Polar Silk Road” has been used to gain a footing in the Arctic by pursuing investments in infrastructure and natural resources, including in the territory of NATO Allies.”
Although there is nothing wrong with the Chinese perspective and its right to invest in this region, Washington is unable to see it in terms other than ‘Chinese expansion’ at its own expense. In reality, however, the 2024 Strategy Report contains a long menu of steps Washington aims to take to expand its own presence, both individually and collectively via a partnership with NATO. Indeed, NATO’s decision to support Swedish and Finnish membership of the alliance was motivated by the desire to expand NATO’s reach to a region lying beyond its usual geographical focus on Europe. This is exactly how China sees, as this report in the Global Times shows, US/ANTO expansion in the Arctic.
Russian Position in the Arctic
Should Russia have sat idly and not done anything to redress the suspension of cooperation with the Arctic Council and the US-backed NATOization of the region? This would have simply allowed NATOization to go unchecked, gradually overstepping into Russian territories and jeopardizing Russian interests. Ironically enough, the US 2024 Strategy has been announced against the backdrop of a significant shift in Russia’s Arctic policy – and it is far from militarization, as the US claims.
In fact, the 2023 Russian concept report shows a significant shift away from the narratives of ‘constructive international cooperation’ to more precise domestic objectives, such as ensuring environmental sustainability; reducing threats to national security in the Arctic; and, crucially, ensuring favourable international conditions for the socio-economic development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. Still, the Russian position reaffirms the sufficiency of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) to regulate interstate relations in the Arctic Ocean. How is this a ‘threatening’ scenario? Why should the US feel ‘worried’ about it?
There is little for the US to feel worried about, except the fact that it feels increasingly unable to tackle the emerging Russia-China alliance encompassing key regions worldwide. Washington already blames Chinese support for Russia in Ukraine. This has, in Washington’s eyes, become the key reason for NATO’s failure to defeat Russia. If this alliance continues to expand, including in the Arctic, it will continue to erode the US/NATO ability to maintain their dominance. The US aims to tighten the space as much as it can to prevent this alliance from consolidating. Chances of doing this successfully, however, seem far from strong.
Salman Rafi Sheikh, research analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
