They did it to themselves, not just President Emmanuel Macron, but the French establishment as a whole. To add injury to insult, especially in the wake of losing colonies in Africa (and their lucrative minerals), the ruling party proved its inability to keep close to the pulse of the French people and their aversion to war, and love of fiery protests. This was especially notable after the suggestion of sending troops to Ukraine, conflict in a “Metropolitan French” region of New Caledonia, other foreign entanglements and the need to keep focus on pressing domestic issues—starting with a failed immigration policy with a slew of political and economic repercussions.
It is as if Macron and his team are oblivious to French history and where the expression heads will roll comes from—likely going back to the French Revolution using the guillotine to even old scores.
In the wake of disastrous European Parliamentary elections for his party, Macron took “a calculated risk” (boy, he must be bad at math) that calling snap elections in France would galvanize his supporters to counteract the risk of a right wing dominated parliament led by Le Pen’s National Rally movement.
The Domino Effect
Those of us old enough to remember, and those with an interest in history, will remember the idea of the domino effect, where US intervention in Vietnam was justified by the concept that a communist victory over the south of the country would result in an unstoppable run of collapses all the way to Australia (never mind the fact that Ho Chi Minh was very pro-American).
The theory has been revived from time to time to justify military action in support of, or against, emerging political movements, such as the collapse of communism and the subsequent “color revolutions”, or the Arab spring, where both covert and open interventions have been carried out by the West.
This was especially the case in the former Yugoslavia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria, as well, I suspect strongly, in the case of Ukraine, where western governments hoped that their successful coup (at the time), the relatively easy overthrow of Yanukovich, like kicking in the door to a rotten house, would lead to a domino effect in Belarus and the Russian Federation, with the aim of removing Lukashenka and Putin from power and breaking the whole into smaller parts.
Luckily for the non-western world, this ominous situation did not come to pass.
Dien Bien Phu Moment
It is as if Emmanuel Macron is experiencing a second Dien Bien Phu, the battle in northern Vietnam in 1954 when the French-held garrison was totally overrun, which was a total defeat for the army and French policy in Southeast Asia, leading the way for the Americans to take over where they French left off; we all should know how that ended. Macron’s insane desire to play Napoleon, with his push to deploy French troops to Ukraine, could well make Dien Bien Phu look a minor catastrophe by comparison.
What is apparent is that the interventions, coups, and wars promoted by the west in Eastern Europe, North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and Asia have resulted in nothing but disaster for Europe in the form of military defeat, massive expenditure of treasure, loss of access to vital resources, and a human tidal wave of the desperate fleeing western funded and trained Islamist groups or their government counterparts.
How will it end?
Ironically, everything seems to have backfired badly, giving the National Rally a decisive victory in the first round of voting, with the once strongly positioned centrist Renaissance party taking a mere 21 percent of the vote.
The party, and a hodgepodge of other coalitions, mostly left-wing parties, called the New Popular Front, with historically the worse reputation are now far in the lead, nearly one in three votes, 31 percent, and with Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rallyin first place, something that would have made her father proud; However, the win wasn’t so much based on progressiveness of proclaimed policies but rather the collective failures of the current government and a wave of anti-immigrant fervor sweeping across France and Western Europe.
Xenophobic Fascists?
It is worth nothing that much history is involved here and how France has always been divided, Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine’s father, was a member of a French division of the Waffen-SS during World War II. That is why this party has faced an ironclad barrier against its entry into government for so many years. But memories are short in France, and the same is true for much of Europe, so we could go as far as to say that is this is a German victory—at least from a historic perspective.
Marine Le Pen has kept the party’s essential doctrine, which under her father was known as “France for the French”, or “national preference”, and which she has renamed “national priority.” The obvious aim is to make them more palatable to the larger public. And her policy seems to be working, shortly before the first round of the French parliamentary elections, and anti-immigration song, Je Partira Pas, (I won’t leave)went viral amongst French youth, despite massive efforts to censor it on the part of the government and mass-media.
It is hard to blame them, both ethnic French, and the children of previous waves of immigration, as they watch the rioting of more recent immigrants who have little to nothing in common with those raised in the country, and who despise the values of French culture and society. Unfortunately, they may be choosing a cure that is worse than the disease.
Celebrate with Vichy Water
Will LePen and her allies be drinking “Vichy water“in celebrating the second round of elections, with Marons’spending total defeat, although he will still be in office, albeit as a “lame duck”, for a few years more?
The message will be driven home, considering the final scene in the movie Casablanca, which touches on what was going on in Europe, all the side plots in occupied France and that there were two French governments before the world was in the midst of WW2 in Europe.
Vichy France was the regime that collaborated with Nazi Germany after France was defeated and occupied. The reference to “Vichy water” is a metaphor for potential collaboration or compliance with far-right ideologies, as Vichy France did with the Nazis.
Captain Renault initially represents the Vichy government who were in power between 1940 and 1944 in France; in the final scene, he pours a glass of Vichy water before discarding the bottle in the bin and kicking it over, thus symbolizing his rejection of the Vichy government and Nazi regime.
Now history is going the other way, mainly because of the deep-seated hatred of Macron, his older wife, his government, social class, and for a wide range of reasons, and everything he and those close to him stands for—which includes being too cozy with far away allies who now have their own problems to worry about, especially with the upcoming US elections and a failed policy in Ukraine—for starters.
The far-right’s rise is less about its own appeal and more about the failures of the current government, and its globalist backers, combined with a wave of anti-immigrant sentiment. French voters are likely too angry, especially the younger generation, to sense the potential dangers of repeating historical mistakes by allowing far-right ideologies to gain power.
That is why we only need to look at French history to know what this and the next round of elections can mean for France and much of Europe, history does have a tendency of repeating itself, and we need too only to look back to historical events like the French Revolution and Vichy France to emphasize the potential consequences of a reactionary political shift—one brought about by an arrogant leader who underestimates the needs, expectations and the wrath of the French people.
What we are seeing now, is a Domino Effect in reverse, with results in the Hungarian and Slovakian elections, the elections to the European Parliament, and now, those in France, showing a massive swing in public opinion against the parties of left leaning globalism that are responsible for myriad disasters both at home and abroad.
This is especially apparent in France. Will we again see the French anger at their government spread like wildfire, especially in terms of a much higher than expected voter turnout, and the subsequent rude awakening for much of Europe in the nearest future, especially the EU?
Seth Ferris, investigative journalist and political scientist, expert on Middle Eastern affairs, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.