While the Western minority no longer has the monopoly on the power to decide what to do or not in the global dynamic, states formerly deprived of their right to self-determination are becoming determining players in global power. The Republic of Guinea seems to be part of this logic of the overthrow of the unipolar world order (here). The Multipolarism advocated by the BRICS Alliance protects the light states from the cruelty and greed of the lords of the Berlin Conference on Africa. Although it is poorly received by Paris, the official visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation to Guinea, as well as to other countries in the region and the African continent, is part of the strengthening of ties of friendship and cooperation between States, and consolidation of the new multipolar world order.
Introduction
In an international context where the Western decision-making monopoly is crumbling, the Republic of Guinea is emerging as a key player, rebalancing power in a rapidly changing world order. This dynamic, formerly dominated by unipolarism resulting from the fall of the Berlin Wall (1989) and the end of the Cold War (1991), today sees the growing influence of the BRICS Alliance, which works to protect Emerging states against the historical excesses and greed of traditional powers. With this in mind, the visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation to Guinea, although controversial in Paris, symbolizes a further step towards the strengthening of bilateral ties and the consolidation of a resolutely multipolar world.
Strengthening centuries-old ties and friendship between Russia and Guinea
It is with a heart full of joy that I enthusiastically followed the Russian-registered plane landing on the tarmac of Ahmed Sékou Touré International Airport, on board, the head of Russian diplomacy and his delegation (here). When he got off the plane, Sergei Lavrov was welcomed as a sincere friend by his Guinean counterpart Dr. Morissada Kouyaté, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Guinea, who at his side had the Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Guinea, Alexey Popov and other distinguished guests in the spotlight. The visit of Sergei Lavrov, Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, to Guinea on June 3, 2024, is part of a dynamic of strengthening the centuries-old ties and friendship between our two nations. This visit, which is a continuation of fruitful bilateral cooperation established for more than sixty years, demonstrates the mutual commitment to deepening our diplomatic and economic relations. Since Guinea’s independence in 1958, Russia has been a pioneer in recognizing our sovereignty, thus laying the foundations for a strategic partnership. This alliance has resulted in close collaboration in key areas such as trade, economy, education, security and humanitarian work. Guinea, blessed with a wealth of natural resources, has become a trading partner of choice for Russia, with notable involvement of its companies in the Guinean mining sector. Beyond the economy, our cultural and educational exchanges are also flourishing, with many Guinean students benefiting from scholarships in Russia, thus strengthening our cultural and human ties. Mr Lavrov’s visit, which follows his participation in the BRICS summit in South Africa and the success of the Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg, confirms the strategic importance that Russia attaches to its relations with Africa. Sergei Lavrov’s presence in Guinea therefore symbolizes a global strategy aimed at consolidating a historic friendship and promoting enriching cooperation at all levels between our two countries.
How is Lavrov’s visit to Guinea perceived in Paris?
Sergei Lavrov’s recent visit to Guinea is seen by France as a tactical move by Russia to consolidate its presence in Africa, a major issue in current geopolitical strategy. This first visit since 2013 is part of a dynamic where Moscow is intensifying its efforts to increase its influence on the continent, in search of strategic partnerships, particularly in countries with abundant natural resources such as Guinea. French observers are particularly vigilant, interpreting this approach as an attempt to counterbalance Western influence. Political reactions in France suggest that the visit is part of a broader Russian strategy to build political and economic, and even military, ties with key African countries. Lavrov’s involvement in Guinea, including his meeting with the President of the transitional period of Guinea, Mamadi Doumbouya, raises questions about Russian ambitions in politically unstable regions and the potential implications for regional stability. This African tour by Lavrov is therefore interpreted as a maneuver by Russia to expand its circle of influence, which could redefine geopolitical dynamics and affect Franco-Russian relations, already tense on several international issues. France therefore remains attentive to future developments, aware of the challenges represented by Russia’s rise on the African stage. The reality is that the parameters of the world scene have changed and, as the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Mali, Abdoulaye Diop, said, Paris must now look at the situation in Guinea from a distance without having to decide anything. either inside. Guinea has the freedom to choose with whom to cooperate without receiving injunction from anyone. The modern-day Hitlers of Macron’s plot (here) only have their eyes to cry with. The world, as Pascal Boniface puts it, “is chaotic and dangerous” (here).
The geopolitical and geostrategic implications of Lavrov’s Africa tour
Endowed with a rich diversity of natural and human resources, Africa is nevertheless hampered in its economic momentum by a substantial dependence on external factors, desired and imposed on the continent by the Western colonial overlords. This dependence, manifested through the export of raw materials, the receipt of international aid, foreign direct investment (FDI) and the adoption of exogenous economic models, creates vulnerability to fluctuations in global markets and hinders autonomy. Development of the continent. The volatility of resource prices like oil and minerals, coupled with a reliance on foreign aid and capital, limits economic diversification and makes African countries susceptible to external shocks, while hampering their political sovereignty. Faced with these challenges, solutions are emerging to forge a more stable and autonomous future: economic diversification, strengthening local capacities through education and training, improving governance and promoting intra-African trade are all levers to reduce dependence and drive sustainable growth. These strategies, supported by the Russian Federation (BRICS), suggest a potential for economic transformation which, once realized, could unlock new prospects for prosperity for the African continent.
The expansion of Russia’s sphere of influence in Africa undermines France’s colonial bastions
The geopolitical dynamics of the evolution of the Russian presence in Africa constitute a phenomenon which shakes the traditional influences of powers such as France. This rise is built around a solid historical heritage, inherited from the links forged by the USSR during the Cold War with liberation movements, and continues through ingenious contemporary strategies. Russia deploys a dualistic approach, skillfully combining state actors and non-state entities, such as the Wagner African Corps, to expand its cooperation both militarily and in strategic economic sectors.
In light of the above, we can deduce that Russian strategy in Africa, combining historical heritage, innovative tactics and proactive diplomacy, is redefining the geopolitical landscape of the continent and positioning Russia as a strong competitor against the former colonial powers. Lavrov’s visit to the Republic of Guinea, which constitutes a strong signal for Paris, is part of the strengthening of the centuries-old bonds of friendship which bind the Russian and Guinean peoples, as well as the promotion and consolidation of the new world order multipolar framework advocated by the BRICS Alliance.
Mohamed Lamine KABA – Expert in geopolitics of governance and regional integration, Institute of Governance, Humanities and Social Sciences, Pan-African University, especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.