The Middle East, lying at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and Africa, is traditionally a region vital to the sphere of international relations, however, the term ‘Middle East’ encompasses an all but monolithic region; competition for regional influence between various states is evident and cleavages along various lines manifest themselves, including in terms of economic might, confessional, ethnic and language differences, political orientation, military capabilities. Nevertheless, a multitude of factors and shared challenges unite the countries of this region, which demands an in-depth analysis of this complex and intricate part of the world and its trajectory. On the 12th of February 2024, the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) successfully hosted the conference ‘The regional dynamics of the Middle East in the context of security and development challenges’, providing a platform for leading Russian scientists from (including, but not limited to) the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IOS), IMEMO, MGIMO University, Higher School of Economics and Lomonosov Moscow State University to discuss political and economic tendencies, as well as current internal political affairs in the Middle Eastern region. The IOS plays a particularly important role in researching the Middle East, encompassing various centres and departments (including the Centre for Middle East Studies, Centre for Arabic and Islamic Studies, Department of Israel and the Jewish Communities) not only for the study of the Arab World, but the region in its entirety. A number of experts from multiple of these centres participated in the conference.
The opening word of the conference was given to Igor Ivanov (former Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, 1998–2004, and president of RIAC since 2011), Aleksandr Aksenenok (Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotential of the Russian Federation and RIAC vice president) and Ivan Timofeev (RIAC general director).
The first session of the conference saw Andrei Kortunov (RIAC academic director), Vasilii Kuznetsov (IOS Deputy academic director), Aleksandr Yakovlev (IOS Chief researcher) and Vladimir Bartenev (senior research fellow at the HSE Centre of perspective strategic studies) discuss overarching regional tendencies with a special emphasis on the recent escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and its effects on said tendencies. Ivan Bocharov (RIAC programme coordinator) moderated the discussion. It was also during this session that RIAC experts, particularly scholars from various departments of the IOS, presented the dossier ‘Regional tendencies in the Middle East: political and economic dynamics’, which had been specially prepared in time for the conference. This dossier is authored by A.Kortunov, V.Kuznetsov, A.Yakovlev, Elena Dunaeva (IOS senior research fellow), Amur Gadzhiev (IOS research fellow), Louisa Khlebnikova (IOS research fellow) and in it they address various facets of Middle Eastern affairs.
V.Kuznetsov starts off the first chapter of the dossier by addressing internal political developments in the Arab World, considering global, regional and country-specific factors of change, as well as terminating and emerging trends.
In the second chapter, A. Yakovlev looks at economic tendencies in the Arab World. He highlights the global crisis of transition from one epoch to another and the increased polycentrism of the world as a defining tendency in general and for the Arab World specifically. Other region-wide topics include demographic problems, a deficit in water resources and economic regionalisation of the Arab World. On a national level, problems of structural reconfiguration of the economy, against the background of rapid economic modernisation, define the region. Yakovlev also presents the general tendencies of economic development by subregion (below), as well as their external economic ties in various fields (oil and gas, technology, weapons, finance):
Mashreq (Syria, Iraq, Lebanon): reconstruction and modernisation
Maghreb + Egypt: maintain stability
Gulf states: building a post-industrial world
Е. Dunaeva takes us to the Islamic Republic Iran and the internal political and socioeconomic situation in the country, which, influenced by the economic situation, has over the past years deteriorated under the pressure of Western sanctions, US policy and a number of factors related to foreign policy. Economic problems, such as devaluation of the Iranian rial, an increasing budget deficit and unemployment, have social consequences like brain drain and a falling birth rate.
The fourth chapter, written by A. Gadzhiev, is dedicated to the internal political situation of Türkiye. He looks into political fissures, Erdogan’s megaprojects, the growing Turkish military-industrial complex, economic problems and issues in the sphere of security, the latter of which is burdened by heavy flows of illegal migration.
In the penultimate chapter, L. Khlebnikova presents the main internal political development of the State of Israel. She discusses the rising antidemocratic tendencies within the country, the increasing role of religion in political processes, the weakening of political parties and the growth in populism, as well the deepening schism in society along various lines.
Bocharov dedicated the sixth and final chapter to broader tendencies in the foreign policy of Middle Eastern states. He describes bettering relations between various regional actors, the increased role of non-force instruments of influence in foreign policy, the freezing of conflicts with the remaining risk of their escalation, the diversification of foreign relations and regionalisation in the context of finding a balance of power. Bocharov notes, though, that there are exceptions to some general patterns, namely the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
During the second session (‘Extra-regional actors in the Middle East’), Andrei Baklanov (Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotential of the Russian Federation and HSE professor), Maksim Suchkov (Director of IIS MGIMO), Aleksandr Lomanov (acting deputy director for scientific work at IMEMO) and Aleksei Kupryanov (head of the Centre of the Indo-Pacific Region at IMEMO) considered the vital role of extra-regional actors, namely Russian, USA, China and India, in Middle affairs and the problems in their coordination. With the global political landscape shifting into an increasingly polycentric model and thereby challenging the balance of power, the experts discussed where the regional policies of these extra-regional actors clash and where there are points of cooperation.
In the next session (‘Armed conflicts in the Middle East’), Lyudmila Samarskaya (reseach fellow at the Centre for the Middle East studies at IMEMO), Boris Dolgov (leading research fellow at CAIS IOS), Sergei Serebrov (senior research fellow at CAIS IOS) and Grigorii Lukyanov (research fellow at CAIS IOS) continued the analysis of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as well considering the conflicts in Syria, Yemen and Libya. The experts discussed the political, economic and ecological weight of these conflicts in the region, as well as their driving factors and prospects for resolution. Given time constraints, Sudan and lower intensity interstate conflicts, such as the territorial dispute between Morocco and Algeria, were omitted.
During the fourth and final session (Regional policies of Middle Eastern countries), the speakers considered the policies of regional powers striving for more influence in the region, including Türkiye, Iran, Israel and a number of Arab states in the broader context of a transitioning world. The speakers for this round were Igor Matveev (assistant professor at the Department of International Relations and Foreign Policy of Russia at MGIMO), Vladimir Sazhin (senior research fellow at IOS Centre for Middle East Studies), Irina Svistunova (senior research fellow at the Centre for the Middle East studies at IMEMO) and Dmitrii Maryasis (head editor of «Economy of the Middle East »).
Vanessa Sevidova, intern at the Institute for International Studies of MGIMO University of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.