At the end of January 2024, another representative of the Western world clearly demonstrated its interest in developing cooperation with the countries of the Global South: on Monday January 29 an Italy-Africa summit, organized by Italy, opened in Rome. Although this event is not comparable in scale to recent Russia-Africa or US-Africa summits, either in terms of both the number of participants or the importance of the depth of the issues involved, it would be a mistake to ignore it. Especially since, in addition to the leaders of countries that have traditionally maintained relations with Europe, including Ghana, Kenya, Senegal, and Cape Verde, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, who seemed to have completely abandoned dialog with the West, came to Rome for the summit. The political significance and possible consequences of this event therefore deserve special attention.
The evolution of Eritrea’s position in the international community
In the early years after its independence from Ethiopia, Eritrea’s foreign policy was characterized by considerable openness. In 1994-1998, President Isaias Afwerki, who had led the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front during the country’s long-running insurgency, personally visited France and, twice, the United States, thereby expressing a clear willingness to cooperate with the powers that be. However, despite the flexibility of Asmara’s foreign policy in the 1990s, when it even demonstrated a willingness to compromise in territorial disputes, the prospects for international ties were cut short by the war with Ethiopia (1998-2000). The fact is that Eritrea’s government counted on the support of the international community to recognize the legitimacy of a number of its claims following the Boundary Commission report in 2002. However, given Ethiopia’s de facto refusal to comply with the Commission’s decision, and the absence of any external pressure on Addis Ababa, the Eritrean elite, disillusioned, lost faith in the justice of the Western powers[1]. In turn, the domestic political situation in the country only contributed to the destruction of the country’s remaining ties: the harsh authoritarian policies of Isaias Afwerki, including the arrests of opposition figures in the ruling party and the banning of most media organizations and NGOs, were seen as inconsistent with the concept of universal democratic values. As a result, since the early 2000s Eritrea has been in a state of foreign policy isolation, a situation in part due to the more or less conscious choice of its leadership and in part dictated by the makeup of the established world order. In reality, it was never completely isolated, as it maintained relations with most African states as well as with China, the Arabian monarchies, and Russia. Nevertheless, for many years Eritrea was seen as a pariah state by the main countries in the “democratic world”.
Isaias Afwerki’s visit to Rome: why is it significant?
So, what is so special, in the present author’s view, about the Eritrean President’s visit to Rome? As one of the most experienced heads of State in the world, Isaias Afwerki rarely does things purely for reasons of protocol, and thus generally does not participate in ceremonial events abroad, both because of Eritrea’s long-established foreign policy and because of the heightened foreign media interest in him as a person. In the last few years, even following the healing of Eritrea’s rifts with Ethiopia and Somalia, he has not made a single visit to Europe or America. His last recorded visit to the US was in 2011, when he made a speech at the UN General Assembly. However, he has certainly not abstained from foreign travel – he has made trips to Eritrea’s neighbors, participated in various African Union (AU) events, and visited the Gulf States, China and, as part of the evolving cooperation between Moscow and Asmara, Russia. Since Isaias Afwerki’s recent extended visit to Europe is his first in 10 years, it is at least worth asking about the causes and potential consequences of his trip.
First of all, the objectives of the Italy-Africa Summit need to be briefly examined. To all appearances, this event demonstrates Italy’s sincere interest in reviving its influence on the African continent, perhaps hoping to control the flow of illegal migration and to transform Italy into an energy hub in the south of Europe. Although the summit was billed as an “introductory” event and was not intended as a preliminary discussion of the Italian government’s agenda and ideas with its African partners, the presence of the leaders of 12 African states and the mention of concrete figures (including investments totaling almost 6 billion USD) makes it clear that Giorgia Meloni’s government is taking its diplomatic initiative very seriously.
Historically, Italy, which did not emerge as a unified state until 1870, never had a huge presence in Africa, and its colonial possessions were limited to parts of Libya, eastern and southern Somalia, and finally Eritrea. Although Italy used Eritrea as a springboard for advancing into neighboring Abyssinia, the Italians did a lot to develop the country without resorting to the barbaric practices of the Belgians in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo. Overall, Italy’s interest in renewing its partnership with Asmara is quite natural, both in view of its historical and cultural links and also for economic reasons, including Eritrea’s convenient geographical location, favorable climate and mineral reserves. Moreover, Eritrea’s cooperation with Italy could be seen as a tool to prevent Russia from expanding its influence in the Horn of Africa, and it would certainly be easier for Washington or London to achieve this indirectly, through Rome.
As noted earlier, Isaias Afwerki’s decision to attend the summit demonstrates that he is interested in dialog – in his visit to Italy, which lasted about a week, he not only met with the country’s Prime Minister, but also visited a number of industrial facilities. Of course, it is impossible to overcome long-standing antipathies and antagonism rooted in ideological differences overnight, and during the talks the mention of the suffering of Eritrea’s people during the colonial period is a clear indicator of the distance that the two countries still have to travel. However, it is clear that the Eritrean President has both a remarkable ability to follow an uncompromising political course and an exceptional talent for adapting to changing situations. It is this combination that makes him highly unpredictable not only to his adversaries but also to his allies. In view of the Italian factor, Moscow and Asmara need to enshrine their partnership at an institutional level, while developing it in practice, if they are to retain their current level of mutual interest.
Ivan Kopytsev, political scientist and research assistant at the Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
