The military conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement, which controls the Gaza Strip, has continued since 7 October. That day, Hamas launched rocket attacks on central and southern Israel. Hamas militants stormed into the border Israeli communities and seized several border posts and a military base, taking hostages along the way.
After the militant invasion, Israel declared war on Hamas, imposed a state of emergency, launched retaliatory air strikes and gave Gaza residents 24 hours to move south. Hamas responded that “dying in their homes” was better than expulsion. As a result, the Gaza Strip faces a humanitarian catastrophe. At the time of this writing, the war has claimed at least 1,400 Israeli and 3,400 Palestinian lives. For comparison, the UN has estimated the number of deaths of civilians in the Ukrainian conflict at over 9 thousand since the start of the conflict on 24 February 2022.
The conflict is not over yet, but in this article, we will talk about how this event may affect the Korean Peninsula. This article describes the immediate reaction and attempts of anti-Pyongyang propaganda to play the North Korean card. Next, we will discuss the ROK’s concerns about the conflict, which described a similar scenario in the event of a North Korean attack. Finally, we will talk about the overall outcome because the escalation of the conflict can break the seals and lead to the use of various practices, including tactical nuclear weapons.
Let’s start with the DPRK, which highlighted the conflict by showing support for Palestine. As Rodong Sinmun remarked on 10 October, “A large-scale armed conflict broke out between the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Israel, during which the two sides exchanged fire with thousands of rockets and indiscriminate airstrikes. On 8 October, according to foreign media reports, hundreds of people were killed on both sides and about a thousand were injured. The international community has called this confrontation a bloody conflict caused by Israel’s ceaseless criminal actions against the people of Palestine.
The only way to stop this conflict is via an independent Palestinian state”.
However, at the same time, it was just a news report and at the moment the Foreign Ministry and other senior representatives have not yet made any statements decrying Israel in the typical North Korean way. Even though they made a number of other anti-American statements.
However, anti-Pyongyang propaganda could not miss the opportunity to point out the North Korean trace. Radio Free Asia, a Washington-based media outlet, earlier reported on the suspected use of North Korean weapons by Hamas militants, citing a video posted on the X War Noir account. Allegedly, some militant was seen with an F-7 high-explosive fragmentation rocket manufactured in the North. However, it is still “unclear whether North Korea supplied weapons directly to Hamas or through transactions involving other countries.”
The ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff assumed the 122 mm artillery shells found near the Israeli border were exported from North Korea, considering they had the marking “Bang-122,” the same as North Korean ammunition.
In the 2000s and 2010s, Hamas possessed a small number of North Korean Bulsae-2 ATGMs, similar to the Russian Fagot, and in 2014, the British newspaper The Telegraph claimed that North Korea and Hamas signed a secret contract worth several hundred thousand dollars for the supply of rockets and communication equipment. According to some sources, probably inaccurate, 35 tons of weapons, including surface-to-surface missiles, were seized after a cargo plane carrying the weapons was forced to land at Bangkok airport in 2009. Allegedly, these weapons were due to be smuggled to Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon via Iran.
Bruce Bechtol Jr., a professor of political science at Angelo State University in Texas, argued that North Korea not only sold ATGMs, but also assisted Hamas with the tunnels they built under the border.
Israeli experts from the Alma Research and Education Center believe that Hamas is highly likely to have received North Korean tunnelling methods and technologies through the Lebanese Islamist group Hezbollah, “in which hundreds of combatants, fully equipped, can pass stealthily and rapidly underground.” According to 2021 information, a Hezbollah-affiliated construction company received cutting technology and materials from North Korea’s Korea Mining Development Trading Corporation (KOMID, CSC, Kapmun Tosong) in a deal worth $13 million.
Then, according to both Bechtol and Barry Rubin, author of “North Korea’s Threats to the Middle East and the Middle East’s Threats to Asia”, North Korea trained Palestinian terrorists, both those belonging to the Palestine Liberation Organization and from Syrian and Libyan-backed groups, up until the late 1980s. Allegedly, between 1968 and 1988, the DPRK built at least thirty special training camps, specializing in terrorist and guerilla training. The training courses lasted from three to 18 months and were attended by more than 5,000 recruits from some 25 countries.
However, despite such rumours, it is difficult to independently verify this information, and even if they existed, Kim Jong-un has nothing to do with their existence. And in addition to North Korean weapons, the militants also received large quantities of Ukrainian weapons, including those supplied there as part of Western assistance. As a result, Ukrainian intelligence traditionally accused Russia of provocations, which planted all the bogus evidence, although the author is more inclined to believe in thieving generals than in direct instructions from the country’s government.
The DPRK also officially denied Western media reports stating that Hamas used North Korean weapons during the attack, calling them groundless rumours spread by the United States, which, in their view, were a root cause of the Palestinian-Israeli military conflict.
The article entitled “The Current Middle East Situation Portends the U.S. Bigger Strategic Defeat”, published on 13 October by Ri Kwang Song, an international commentator, says that “the current situation is caused by the US reactionary policy towards the Middle East, openly aimed at patronizing and supporting its ally, which illegally occupied the territory of Palestine and grossly violated the interests of Palestinians.” And “fabricated and unfounded accusations of the alleged use of North Korean-made weapons” are aimed at shifting responsibility. However, the US double-standard policy towards the Middle East will lead to America’s strategic defeat and, in the wake of the Ukraine crisis, shows “the limits of the American hegemonic strategy aimed at establishing a “rules-based international order” through the strengthening of ties with its allies and partners, and the future of the “only superpower, which is getting darker.”
Now let’s talk about the South. On 7 July, the ROK Foreign Ministry said that the country “strongly condemns the indiscriminate attacks from the Gaza Strip across Israel,” and according to the Korea Times, this stands in stark contrast to the joint statement from the leaders of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy, who expressed “steadfast and united support” for the State of Israel and “unequivocal condemnation” of Hamas. However, it was stated that “South Korea and Israel share the values of liberal democracy, human rights and the rule of law.”
On 10 October, President Yoon Suk Yeol instructed the government to take all necessary measures to strengthen safety and security amid the escalating conflict. The Korean President strongly condemned the invasion, calling it a Hamas-led “terrorist act.” He said the crisis could escalate into an international military conflict, with Iran and the Lebanon-based Hezbollah group supporting Hamas, and the U.S., the U.K., France and Germany supporting Israel. The President added that Middle East wars have always raised global oil prices and worsened the financial condition of the South Korean people due to increased inflation. “The situation in the Middle East, coupled with the Ukrainian conflict, could increase the vulnerability of the global community, further exacerbating energy security and supply chain issues,” Yoon Suk Yeol said. Therefore, the current situation requires us to do everything possible to stabilize food prices and support vulnerable segments of the population in the winter, when energy prices may rise.
On October 11, President Yoon Suk Yeol and senior government officials (including Foreign Minister Park Jin, Defense Minister Shin Won-sik, Industry Minister Bang Moon-kyu and National Intelligence Service Director Kim Kyou-hyun) again “regarded the Hamas militant group’s indiscriminate killing of civilians and hostage-taking as an act of terrorism, which clearly violates international humanitarian law, and strongly condemned it”. The government agreed to cooperate closely with the international community to quickly resolve the situation and establish peace.
South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs cited extra caution against travelling to Israel due to the outbreak of hostilities. South Korean nationals in Israel were advised to leave the country through third countries when possible.
At the beginning of the conflict, it was reported that 570 Korean nationals lived or worked in Israel, and about 360 people came to the country as tourists.
On 11 October, a total of 192 South Korean nationals returned home from Israel. According to the ROK Ministry of Foreign Affairs, South Korean nationals living in the Gaza Strip have found a safe place. LG Electronics has decided to bring its employees and their families in Tel Aviv back home. No South Korean casualties have been reported since the conflict began. Later, an additional Korean Air plane departing from Dubai brought home another 147 Korean nationals.
The next group of Korean nationals was evacuated by military aircraft, which returned 163 Korean nationals, including 81 permanent residents and 82 tourists, to South Korea. The plane also brought 51 Japanese and 6 Singaporean nationals, “as part of Seoul’s efforts to provide humanitarian cooperation.” The government said it allowed foreign nationals to board as there was room left in the 230-seat plane. About 470 South Koreans remain in Israel. On 19 October, South Korea raised its travel advisory level for Israel and Lebanon to Level 3, meaning that Korean nationals are urged to evacuate immediately from those countries. The travel advisory for Gaza remains at Level 4, which means staying there without permission will be a crime, similar to Ukraine.
The risks of the conflict affecting South Korea’s economic well-being are not particularly serious. On 9 October, South Korea’s Trade Ministry said it had not seen a major impact from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on the country’s imports of crude oil and natural gas. South Korea is closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East, as the region accounts for 67 % of its overall crude oil purchases and 37 % of its total gas deals.
Korea, however, does not expect any delays or disruptions in oil and gas imports from the Middle East, given that the islands in the Strait of Hormuz, through which the country transports oil and gas, are located far from the conflict zone. Of particular concern is the prospect of a spike in world oil prices and rising inflation, which will require prompt and adequate response measures. The Korean economy is already facing high energy prices, high-interest rates and a weakening Korean currency. The war could derail the government’s hopes of an economic recovery by the end of the year, especially if oil prices rise sharply, exacerbating a slump in exports and consumer spending.
On 10 October, Industry Minister Bang Moon-kyu said that South Korea had secured an eight-month stockpile of crude oil and was considering expanding the amount “until fears of conflict subsided.” “The government will develop contingency plans to be fully prepared for worst-case scenarios.”
On 12 October, First Vice Minister of Planning and Finance Kim Byung-hwan said that the South Korean government was preparing for various scenarios and developments in the Middle East, given the lack of positive forecasts, the country’s authorities are monitoring the state of the financial and foreign exchange markets around the clock, while remaining ready to take measures to stabilize the situation.
South Korea has established a task force to support exporters, which involves senior officials from the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency and related agencies. The government promised to increase the limit of credit guarantees for exporters and reduce the period of insurance payment. This is because the country’s exports to the Middle East account for about 3 per cent of its total.
On 19 October, Finance Minister Choo Kyung-ho again noted that risks stemming from the conflict could cause a flare-up in inflation and ripple effects for the South Korean financial market and the real economy, vowing to take preventive measures to control prices and stabilize people’s living standards as the recent economy shows signs of improvement.
In conclusion, some information on the population’s perception of the conflict; it should be noted that leaflets of the so-called youth group “Workers’ Solidarity” appeared in almost all leading universities in Seoul. They expressed solidarity with Hamas and described “Israeli occupation, ethnic cleansing and mass murder” by Israel, which the “youth NGO” called a “racist terrorist state.” The US and Korean governments were sharply criticized for “taking the wrong stance on the issue.” The leaflets were soon removed, but no administrative measures were taken against the group.
The same group held a rally in central Seoul, jointly with Palestinians living in Korea, and no one particularly tried to prevent the event. The second rally, however, brought together only about 200 people chanting “Freedom for Palestine!” and demanding that the Israeli government cease hostilities.
On the other hand, the Korea-Israel Friendship Association made up mainly of academics, headed by the former Korean Education Minister, planned to hold a briefing in support of Israel with the participation of the Israeli and US ambassadors to Korea. However, organizers cancelled the event hours before the scheduled time after Hamas called on its supporters around the world to hold a “Day of Wrath” on 13 October and attack Israelis.
On 17 October, about 500 Koreans and Israelis did gather in central Seoul, on Tuesday, waving Israeli flags in a show of solidarity. The rally was organized by the Korea-Israel Friendship Foundation and the Israel Forum and consisted of messages condemning Hamas and a prayer for peace delivered by a rabbi. The participants also sang the Israeli national anthem.
Israeli Ambassador to Korea Akiva Tor, who joined the rally, thanked “the Korean government for its strong statements condemning Hamas’s atrocities and for being a friend of Israel.” He added that “the Palestinian people are not Israel’s enemy, nor are the people of Gaza our enemy. Israel will conduct war at all times like a NATO army…We clearly define our goals. The Hamas terror organization will not retain any ability to harm Israel at the end of this struggle.”
However, most young people were neutral. The Korea Times quoted a student, “It doesn’t seem appropriate to take sides when both parties seem to be responsible for the ongoing war.” JoongAng Ilbo, a conservative daily, also titled the article “Preventing Civilian Casualties Is Urgent”. The ROK will provide humanitarian aid worth $2 million to the civilian population affected by the hostilities as a charitable gesture: the money will be channelled through international organizations and the government will monitor their use for humanitarian purposes.
Thus, Korean society is not yet affected by the conflict, but experts have things to worry about when imagining the development of the situation in the near future. Remember this during the next article.
Konstantin Asmolov, Candidate of Historical Sciences, Leading Researcher at the Center for Korean Studies, Institute of China and Contemporary Asia, Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the “New Eastern Outlook“.